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This past weekend at Texas Tony Stewart notched his fourth win in the Chase – it was an impressive feat considering that prior to the first Chase race in Chicago it had been 32 races since he’d last seen victory lane. Despite the late string of success, Stewart still finds himself second in the championship points standings. For some that’s inexplicable.
This fundamental question of what’s more important in the push to a championship is something that’s dogged NASCAR and motorsports for a long time. Do we want a champion who the had the best overall Chase, or the one who had the most wins? Often times they are not one and the same.
NASCAR, prior to this season, retooled the points in an effort to simplify and put slightly more emphasis on winning. The new system gave three extra points to the top finisher in addition to another point for leading a lap. NASCAR also gave the two teams outside of the top-10 but inside the top-20 with the most wins berths in the Chase.
The result of the points changes, while certainly an improvement and much easier to understand has been pretty insignificant this season. But is that a bad thing?
Championship success in NASCAR unlike other sports is not and never has been solely based on winning. It’s of course important, but consistency and good finishes are often the key. Consider Carl Edwards has an average finish of 9.7 on the season, with one win, and 5.6 in the Chase with no wins. Tony Stewart on the other hand is averaging a finish of 12.6 on the season and 7.3 in Chase. For Stewart that includes those four wins.
Carl has without a doubt put together the better, more consistent season. He’s even put together the better, more consistent Chase. And that’s why he finds himself leading the points.
I’ve always been of the belief that the best team should win the championship no matter how it gets there. In this case I want the team with the best Chase performance to win it all. Whether that means the championship winning team has the most wins or the most number of better finishes.
So what do you think should get the emphasis? Consistency? Or wins? Does NASCAR need to restructure the points again? Should Tony Stewart be leading the points?
After Sunday’s dominant performance at Kansas, Jimmie Johnson is once again the talk of the Chase. After a rough start to the playoffs, Johnson has rebounded to close within four points of the lead. But right behind Johnson, who sits third in the standings, is Brad Keselowski. Following a third place finish at Kansas, Keselowski is now only 11 points behind leader Carl Edwards. And since the Loudon race in July, he’s on one hell of a run that may just carry him to the head table in Las Vegas.
Consider this, over the last 11 races, Brad K. has finished outside the top ten only twice (12th at Richmond, 20th at Dover). And, of those nine top ten finishes, seven are actually top five finishes including two wins. He’s gone from 23rd in the standings to fourth. Needless to say, he’s been the hottest driver in NASCAR over the last few months.
Looking ahead, the final six races of the season are Charlotte, Talladega, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead. We’ve already raced at five of those tracks, and Keselowski had finishes of 19th, 33rd, 19th, 18th, and 15th respectively. That’s not a good omen, until you look at how Keselowski has improved at tracks he’s seen for the second time this year. Of the eight race tracks we’ve already raced twice this season, Brad has improved his finish from the first race to the second six times. He didn’t improve at Dover, 13th to 20th, and he didn’t improve at Kansas. But it’s important to note that he won the first race at Kansas, and finished third the second race.
With six races still remaining, literally anything could happen. That is especially true with Talladega looming. At this point, we can realistically say that the top eight drivers probably still have a decent shot at the title. Everyone from Dale Earnhardt Jr. in ninth back is 43 or more points behind, which will be nearly impossible to make up. But of those still in it, Brad Keselowski just might be the guy. With the run he’s currently on, I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.
Jimmie Johnson had a rough few weeks. He was involved in an on-track altercation with Kurt Busch at Richmond – he finished 31st. He went on to Chicago and had a respectable, but not overwhelming 10th place run. Then he struggled at New Hampshire, finishing 18th.
The driver found himself 29 points back in 10th, the farthest back he’d ever been in a Chase at that point. And to top it off, it looked like there was trouble in paradise between Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. Surely Johnson was done for – or so some would have had you believing.
Barring another miraculous comeback – which is not out of the question – Jimmie Johnson’s five-year reign as NASCAR Sprint Cup champion may finally come to an end this season.
And then we got to Dover. Johnson qualified sixth, led 157 laps and ultimately finished second. That seemingly insurmountable 29 point deficit was cut to just 13 and Johnson picked up five spots in the Chase.
Not a surprising feat for this team.
For the last several seasons the “is Johnson done for?” parlor game has been especially popular for the NASCAR press corps – this year, with Johnson not quite as hot as he has been, the speculation has been just as strong (fair disclaimer, we’ve admittedly been guilty of it). But it seems, just when everyone starts counting them out, team #48 starts making its ascent.
It’s happened a couple times mid-season over the last five years when the team soured, and it happened during Johnson’s inaugural championship run in 2006 when he overcame four straight finishes under 13th (including a 39th and 24th). Still Johnson and Knaus always got it together and came out on top.
We’re just three races into the Chase, and we have one of the strongest Chase fields we’ve ever had, but if last weekend was any indication, this year may not be any different. The fact is, Knaus and Johnson are good, very good. They’ve proven that season after season. And despite the occasional bickering and disagreement the two have chemistry like few before.
For me, after five straight, I’m done counting Jimmie and Chad out. That is until we’re sitting in Las Vegas with someone else at the head table. It’ll happen sooner or later.
Before Daytona, I wrote a blog post with some random thoughts entering the season. In it, I made predictions about which drivers I thought would win each championship. I said Ron Hornaday would take the Truck title, Elliott Sadler would be your Nationwide champ, and Denny Hamlin would break through and win the Cup. Of the three choices, only Sadler still has a realistic shot. So much for predictions. Of the three choices, I really felt like Hamlin had the best chance, but 2011 has been anything but a dream season. And three races into the Chase, Hamlin is all but eliminated.
In my explanation for why I chose Hamlin, I said:
The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
Knowing what we know now, it would appear that maybe the opposite happened. It almost seems as though the disappointment of losing the 2010 title the way they did, and a slow start to 2011 might have ended Hamlin’s season before it started. Statistically, 2011 is the worst full season of Denny’s career. His average finish hasn’t been this low since 2005, when he only ran seven races.
Hamlin and his team have certainly been the victim of a lot of bad luck, and Joe Gibbs Racing struggled mightily with their engine program this season (so bad in fact, they are now working with TRD). But the poor luck and the lack of performance all seem to have affected Hamlin’s psyche. We found out this week that Denny has been seeing a sports psychologist. He hopes that having fun over the final races will lead to better results and some momentum for 2012.
Finishes of 31st, 29th, and 18th in the first three Chase races have effectively ended any hope of Hamlin and Co. contending for the championship. And one has to wonder if maybe Mike Ford’s job could be in jeopardy. Hamlin and JGR are certainly a strong enough combination to contend for championships, and the Coach and J.D. will do whatever is necessary to keep Hamlin up front. Hopefully Hamlin can quickly forget 2011 and start fresh for 2012.
Pit road has played a big roll in the outcome of races this season, and as the Cup and Nationwide Series search for their 2011 champions, an even bigger emphasis will be placed on the crews. Those drivers with the strongest pit crews will have a serious advantage as we come into the home stretch. Knowing that, some teams have made moves to strengthen their performance over the wall. Two recent pit crew shakeups have already paid dividends to their teams, and the moves could be crucial in the hopes of two contenders.
Saturday night in Richmond, Kevin Harvick re-emerged as a legitimate title contender. After spending much of the summer struggling to find some measure of mojo, Harvick and the 29 team showed they are ready to take a shot at unseating the 48. And what was a big key to Harvick’s fourth win of the season? A key pit stop late in the race. With 15 laps to go, a caution brought the field to pit road, and fast work by Harvick’s crew put the 29 ahead of Jeff Gordon on the ensuing restart. Harvick was then able to hold off Carl Edwards for the win, and secure his spot tied with Kyle Busch atop the standings heading to Chicago.
If you might remember, it’s only been a few weeks since Richard Childress Racing replaced it’s pit crew coach. And along with the coaching change came a new front changer for Harvick’s crew. Tim Sheets, who has spent the season changing for Elliott Sadler’s #2 team in the Nationwide Series, was brought up to help alleviate some of the pit stop issues Harvick has experienced this season. Needless to say, the move has worked.
In the Nationwide Series, the battle for the driver’s title is a tight one. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. only has a 16 point cushion between himself and second place Elliott Sadler with seven races remaining. In order to give Stenhouse the best possible chance to win the championship, Jack Roush has pulled out all the stops. After a tough night at Atlanta, Stenhouse’s entire pit crew was replaced with the #6 Cup crew of David Ragan. The change provided immediate results. With the double duty #6 guys servicing his race car at Richmond, Stenhouse never ran lower than seventh in the race, and finished a very strong third behind Kyle Busch and Edwards.
Because racing has become so tight out on the track, teams have discovered that it is often easier to make passes on pit road. And in order to do that, they need the quickest six guys they can put together. As the Chase gets ready to kick off this weekend, expect pit road to be a big factor in who takes home this season’s Cup.
Two years ago Brad Keselowski, seeing that his opportunities were limited, left his Nationwide ride at JR Motorsports, for a full time Cup ride at Penske Racing. The move was met with mixed reviews.
And in his first full season in 2010, Keselowski struggled. The team averaged a 22.4 finish and scored just two top-10s. They finished the year 25th in points. It was a disappointing way to start out a new partnership.
2011 looked to be shaping up much the same for Keselowski despite a change at crew chief in the off-season. In the first nine races of the year the team didn’t have a finish better than 18th and found themselves mired back in 28th in points. It was a rough start.
Then came Darlington – ten weeks in and the team finished third. It took just two more weeks for Keselowski to win his first race of the season. Since then, there have been some rough patches here and there, but for the most part, the #2 team has been surging.
In the 11 races since that first win, Keselowski has had seven top-10s, four top-fives and two more wins. The team couldn’t have timed their jump in performance any better. With two races to go until the start of the Chase, Keselowski sits 11th in the points with three wins.
In addition to strengthening his chances at a berth, Keselowski’s surge also provides another interesting dynamic to the Chase race. If he can make it into the top-10 – and with his recent performance that is not at all out of the question – one of those two wild card spots open back up. Right now Denny Hamlin, with one win, gets one of the Chase spots and Paul Menard, 20th in points, gets the other. Chasing Menard is David Ragan in 21st and Marcos Ambrose in 22nd.
For Keselowski though, what looked to be a season of struggle, has turned into a season of triumph. The sky’s the limit for team team #2 – if/when he makes the Chase, Keselowski will be tied for second in the points with Kevin Harvick. That is nothing short of impressive, considering even after his first win, Keselowski was beyond the requisite 20th in points.
In the weeks to come this Penske team is definitely one to watch. Competing in and qualifying for the Chase is all about momentum and right now Brad Keselowski has it – perhaps more than any other. Stay tuned.
I’ve probably written this sentence about a dozen times so far this year, but wow this is shaping up to be a season to remember. After this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen we have 15 different winners and five different first-time winners. Those are extraordinary numbers from a season that still has 14 races left.
Consider last year – there were only 13 different winners by the time we reached Homestead in November.
The numbers are even more impressive when considered against other forms of American motorsports. In the IndyCar Series, in addition to other issues, there have been seven different winners in 13 races. And in a season dominated by the Chip Ganassi Racing team, the Grand-Am Rolex Sports Car Series has just four different winners in 10 races.
With 11 of the top-20 in the Cup Series already winners so far this season, who else is in a position to win and compete for those two wildcard slots in the Chase?
The group above accounts for the most likely future winners this season. Still, we make another stop at Talladega and with the out of nowhere wins from a couple this season, the next Cup Series winner may be completely off the radar. Stay tuned because this is just getting interesting.
Sunday’s race at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, dominated by fuel mileage, mistakes, and both Stewart Haas cars continued what has been a season of parity and added another contender to the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Ryan Newman’s victory made him the 13th different winner after 19 races this season and gave him a one spot boost in the points. Perhaps more importantly, it gave Newman a win, further strengthening his chances at a spot in the Chase.
Past the halfway point of the season and with just seven races to go until the Chase begins, who gets in is still very fluid. At the top, Carl Edwards retook the points lead from Kyle Busch after Busch cut down a tire early on, and Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch made up spots. At the bottom, Dale Earnhardt Jr. lost one spot to ninth, while David Ragan and Kasey Kahne picked up two and three spots respectively to 13th and 14th (Kahne and Greg Biffle each have 523 points). Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin both have 570 points in 10th and 11th.
With wins being the ticket to the Chase outside the top-ten, there are currently four drivers who fit the bill and have been to victory lane – David Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne. Of those four, two have a realistic shot of making it into the requisite top-20.
The first of those two, David Ragan, is in good shape with his 13th place points position, but Brad Keselowski sits 23rd in the points – losing two spots this weekend. If Keselowski hopes to compete for a championship this year, he’s going to have to make up some ground – lucky for him there are only 95 points separating 23rd from 12th. With a good run over the next seven races that is certainly surmountable.
Competing with those two are the other chasers without a win, and those within the top-20 without a win. Considering the amount of parity there has been this season who makes it and who doesn’t is still wide open.
So what do you think? Who makes the Chase, who doesn’t? Feel free to sound off on the Championship Chase and the race at New Hampshire.
Coming off of a season that saw a pot hole mar the opening race and then rain and other issues combine to make for a less than stellar start, 2011 has been nothing short of a breath of fresh air in the Cup Series. And consider this, with Jimmie Johnson’s come from behind win Sunday in Talladega this season has produced seven different winners in eight different races – not a bad start to the season.
Add to that solid start four different championship points leaders and six different lead changes and you’ve got a season that hasn’t really had a stand out driver or team through the first portion.
Our current top-ten in points have had some good stats to back them up – all have at least four top-tens, and with the exception of Kurt Busch, all have at least two top-fives. Half of them have wins. All – with the exception of Kurt Busch – hold the distinction though of having at least one finish of 24th or worse. Some have finishes a lot worse.
The only guy to score repeat wins? Well so far, Kevin Harvick has a DNF at Daytona and two sub-17th place finishes on top of that. His season has so far been a bit of a roller coaster.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the only drivers to have any measure of consistency are the top-three. Carl Edwards is averaging a finish of 8.2 (with blemishes at Phoenix and Martinsville); Jimmie Johnson is averaging a finish of 8.9 with one bad run at Daytona; and Dale Earnhardt Jr., though he is winless, is channeling that classic Steve Letarte consistency, averaging a 10th place finish with just one DNF (a 24th place finish) at Daytona.
Even with the brighter spots in the top-ten, the points are still close enough for drivers to have big swings in and out. Both Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth jumped five spots (in opposite directions) this past weekend.
The fact is, and I think this speaks to the level of competition we have right now in the sport, there just isn’t a dominate team. Going into race nine, it gets harder to turn seven out of eight into eight out of nine, but with the way this season has gone, anything could happen.
So what do you think? Has anybody stood out to you? Who’s most likely to make an early run?