Did you know since the start of the season only one non-Cup regular has won a national series event? The driver? Trevor Bayne.
Who would have thought by this point in the season, 11 races in (counting all the races in all three series), the Daytona 500 winner would be the only non-Cup regular to win a race? Crazy. This leads me to wonder what effect the points changes have had on who is racing where. Though I’ve been moderately supportive of the changes, the obvious answer is not much.
Kyle Busch, or a Kyle Busch owned team has won five of 11 races – four of which have come in a non-Cup Series event. We’ve seen NASCAR veterans Mark Martin and Michael Waltrip win, and Kasey Kahne continue his perfect Truck Series streak. We’ve had a lot of compelling storylines; the regulars in the Truck and Nationwide Series just haven’t been part of it.
As a result the points leaders in the two lowers series who have no wins and just one top-five finish between the two of them. In the Nationwide Series it’s Jason Leffler who leads the points with no top-fives and three top-tens. He’s averaging an 8.5 place finish. Series veteran Matt Crafton leads the truck points with one top-five and three top-10s. He’s averaging a seventh place finish.
Your second place driver in the Truck Series? That’s 19-year-old Cole Whitt with just two top-ten finishes to his name.
Ironically, for all the early seasion talk from NASCAR about how the points changes would put a little more emphasis on wins, the Cup Series points leader, Kurt Busch, also has no wins, just one one top-five, and four top-tens. Is consistency still the king? It sure is looking that way.
While I was definitely an advocate of some kind of a points move, I’m sorry to see what they’ve done hasn’t really changed anything. Certainly we don’t expect Kyle Busch et al to run the full season in the Truck and Nationwide Series, but their presence thus far has been overwhelming – and in most cases stifling. There is still a lot of season to go, but from what we’ve seen so far, I don’t expect too many changes.
So three – or four – races in what do you think about the points changes? Was it what you expected? Give us your points opinion so far!
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With all the hype leading into this final race we certainly had an exciting finish. Who wasn’t on edge after Denny Hamlin spun, Jimmie Johnson’s crew (continually) screwed up, and Kevin Harvick got caught speeding on pit road? I was on the edge of my seat until the final laps.
And so after 36 races and thousands of miles we have our 2010 champion – the same champion we had in 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006. This is an accomplishment Jimmie Johnson and his crew should be proud of and something we all should be celebrating. But I suspect most of us aren’t.
The fact is, despite the hype, that end was kind of deflating.
I struggled after the race to find a way to think about this positively. It really is an extraordinary thing. But the truth is, I wasn’t really all that excited about it. The only thing I could think was, “NASCAR and ESPN thought the ratings were bad this season.”
I can’t tell you, over the past two and half years, how many people have e-mailed or commented at their waning interest in the sport over the #48′s dominance. I fear this will only make that worse. And I can’t really blame people – I’m getting bored. I say this too feeling bad for thinking Jimmie’s success is hurting the sport, but I honestly believe it is.
While they would never admit it, I think the folks at NASCAR see it too. The changes to the points that they’re considering have got to be, to some extent, as a result of what he’s been able to do – and even with today, we had a different path, but the exact same result.
I write this with no ill will toward Jimmie Johnson. I think Jimmie is a great guy and I think he and the #48 team are to be commended for all of their success. But this isn’t good for this sport. That said, I’m just not sure there is anything NASCAR or Jimmie’s fellow competitors can do about it.
With that, we’ll be off for the next week taking a little vacation (we’ll be moderating comments though). Check back next Monday for a new TNI post and our off-season schedule. We hope you all have safe and happy Thanksgiving!
And then there was one.
Heading into Homestead this weekend for the final race of the 2010 season, the championship race is still wide open. After Phoenix, Denny Hamlin now leads Jimmie Johnson by a scant 15 points, and Kevin Harvick by 46. The race to determine the champion could literally come down to the last lap.
At Phoenix, where it appeared that both the 11 and 29 teams had missteps that could have cost them big, both came out pretty well. Even with having to pit late for two tires and fuel Hamlin fought back to 12th, and Harvick was able to overcome a pit stop issue to finish sixth.
With Homestead looming, I wanted to take a second to point out each driver’s stats at the track. In his career, Harvick has an average finish of 8.4, with four top five and seven top 10 finishes. Johnson has an average finish of 12.7 with three top five and six top ten finishes. While Hamlin has an average finish of 10.6, with one win, three top five, and three top ten finishes. No driver appears to be dramatically better then the others, but it is interesting to point out that Hamlin has won their previously, and Johnson has the worst average finish.
As you digest the finish at Phoenix and look forward to the finale, we wanted to give you this opportunity to sound off about the championship. Which driver and team will rise to the top and win the title, and why do you think so? Talk amongst yourselves!
As the Cup Series enters its final three race stretch, NASCAR finally has the championship race the Chase promised (a familiar refrain I know). With just 38 points separating first from third, this is still a wide open fight. Look to the two lower series though and there is a very different story.
For all intents and purposes the championship races in the Nationwide and Truck Series have been over for a while. In the Nationwide Series, Brad Keselowski has run away from the pack (thanks in large part to Kyle Busch’s partial schedule). Going into the final three races he has a 485 point lead over second place Carl Edwards. It looks like the Captain will finally get a championship in NASCAR.
Then there’s Todd Bodine in the Truck Series. Though he fought early on in the season with young guys like Timothy Peters and Aric Almirola, he’s held a convincing lead for the last couple of months. As it stands right now, Bodine has a 216 point lead over Aric Almirola in second place.
The dichotomy of these two points systems is interesting in the continuing debate over the Chase. While we still have a race and a story in the Cup Series (on top of the actual race every week), we’re only watching the other two series – barring any unforeseen circumstances – to see the individual events .
This is of course what NASCAR has been trying to find since they implemented the Chase in 2004. This playoff like system has been hailed by the sport, but not very well received by many fans. I think that’s in large part due to the fact that it really hasn’t worked like planned. On top of that the same guy has won the championship the last four years (and is in the points lead right now).
I know I’ve written a ton of Chase related posts here before, but given the points situations, where we have a lock in two series and a wide open race in the other (thanks to the Chase system), which system do you prefer (if they’re working like they should)? Which system do you think is working?
Increasingly, I’m not sure which I prefer. I do know I’d like to see some uniformity throughout the sport, but that’s honestly neither here nor there.
So what do you think? Are you interested in the Chase this year? Do you like what you’re seeing? Do you prefer a system that allows us to have a runaway winner? Or do you like it’s traditional consistency? Feel free to talk amongst yourselves.
After all the talk leading up to this weekend about Talladega being a wild card race (yes, I’m guilty too), it turned out to be quite the opposite. Instead of being a track where championship hopefuls have their chances dashed away with one wrong move and “the big one,” all we’ve come out the other side with is a Chase that is even tighter.
Following the race on Sunday, our top three Chasers are now only separated by 38 points. Jimmie Johnson leads Denny Hamlin by 14 points, and Kevin Harvick is another 24 back. Heading into the final three races of 2010, the championship is still completely up for grabs.
During the race, Johnson and Hamlin dropped to the back and were hoping to ride out the madness until the very end. The “riding around in the back all race” strategy worked for Johnson, but it nearly bit Hamlin. While attempting to avoid the front of the pack, Hamlin lost the lead draft and went a lap down. He was able to get a lucky dog late in the race, and came back to finish ninth.
Instead of running in the back like his fellow Chasers, Harvick chose to run in the pack all race long. His wreck with Marcos Ambrose late in the race though showed that no strategy is safe at Talladega. Good work by his crew, and a crazy finish saw Harvick finish a close second to teammate Clint Bowyer.
Looking at each driver’s career statistics at the three remaining tracks, it would appear that with the exception of Johnson at Phoenix, none of the three have a real discernible advantage. The #48 has been awesome at Phoenix, with no finishes outside the top four in their last eight starts (including four wins), but they have had their struggles at Texas and Homestead. And Harvick and Hamlin have both proven they are capable of winning at any of these three tracks.
Minimizing any mistakes is obviously going to be the key over the final three races. Two of our three contenders had some troubles on Sunday, but they were both able to overcome them. As the pressure mounts, who will blink first?
I know Jimmie is leading the points. And I’m not going to say he doesn’t have a chance of winning a fifth championship – he absolutely does. The points race though is the closest we’ve seen after three races in the history of the Chase, and I think Jimmie has the toughest competition (in terms of number of participants) he’s ever had.
Over the last three races we’ve seen drivers make missteps, make amazing recoveries, and show the kind of consistency and success that wins championships. Still, no one looks that much better than anyone else. The common thread that binds the eleven Chasers capable of winning the Chase is that they all have a pretty good chance to win this thing.
On Sunday we saw the strength of a lot of teams. The Roush Chasers showed, despite struggles the last two seasons, they shouldn’t be counted out. At one point in the race the top four cars came from the Roush stables. And how about Hendrick? Despite struggling off and on through the season, Jimmie Johnson is making his charge to the front (so much for us naysayers!) and teammate Jeff Gordon continues to be a consistent competitor (though pushing to a win is still a struggle).
Though one of the RCR cars is (at the moment at least) probably out of contention, Jeff Burton and most especially Kevin Harvick are displaying the strength of their organization. Harvick moved himself into third this weekend and continued to show just how important consistency is. He has more top-fives and more top-tens than any other driver in the sport right now. Obviously wins would help Harvick bring Richard Childress his first Cup championship in 16 years, but one misstep from one his competitors might be all ‘Mr. Consistency’ Kevin Harvick needs.
And lest I forget the Gibbs cars and the two guys without any teammates in the Chase. While Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin continue to make big headlines off the track, their performances on track is what everyone should be keeping their eyes on. Hamlin is second in the points and Busch is seventh, but both could very easily make their way to the top of the heap. And the final two guys, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart, are the only other drivers to have won a championship in the Chase format. If anyone other than Jimmie Johnson knows how to win in this format, it’s these two.
I know from our discussion the other day, many of you are burnt out on the Championship talk, but how could you not be interested in this? It’s not quite the post-season in the NFL, MLB or NBA, but it’s shaping up to be an interesting fight. With the first 11 cars separated by only 149 points every little mistake is going to be amplified, and the wild card race at Talladega could seriously shake things up.
After years of looking for a close battle among a lot of cars, this year is delivering so far. We’ve still got seven races left, but this year may finally be the year we get that race in the Chase.
It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final races of the season. In just more than two months we’ll be in Homestead to crown a champion for 2010. In the meantime we’ve got our Chase field set and 10 races to sort out the good from the great.
So far this season we’ve seen just how important consistency is in this points system (Kevin Harvick) and how bad luck can damage even the best teams (Jimmie Johnson). While we’ve had some convincing wins and some great performances, who exactly the strongest team is, is hard to say. The race for the championship is wide open for the first time in years, and there are 12 drivers now in a dogfight to become the next Sprint Cup Champion.
Denny Hamlin: Has all the makings of a champion. He’s the winningest driver so far this season, and when the #11 team is on, they’re on. The trouble they, and frankly all the Gibbs teams have had is consistency. Hamlin has two DNFs and five finishes of 30th or worse. His championship hopes are on his team at this point. The driver has proven he’s capable. The rest of the team now needs to figure out if they are.
Jimmie Johnson: The #48 team has been good this season – there’s no doubt about that. But they’ve struggled since the implementation of the spolier. Chad Knaus has been unable to keep up with track conditions some weekends, and other weekends, when they look like they’re on, they get hit by bad luck. Consistency was the thing that made this team so strong for so long and it just hasn’t been there. Johnson has four DNFs so far this season and nine races with finishes of 20th or worse. Just like Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson’s championship hopes rest heavily on his team – perhaps more importantly though are the things he cant control, like luck.
Kevin Harvick: Consistent is the one word to describe this team. In 26 races this season Harvick has won just three times, but built a commanding lead in the points. His average finish of 9.8 is the best of his career, and if the team can maintain it, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Though the team has been good just about every weekend, they’re not always in a position to win. Because of this, Harvick’s championship hopes hinge on the consistency of his competitors over the next 10 races. If everyone runs like they have all season, Harvick could very well give Richard Childress his first Cup championship since 1994.
Kyle Busch: Though he hasn’t had as many wins, Busch has been more consistent than his teammate Denny Hamlin. For that reason he might just be in a better position to win the championship. As I’ve said here before, whether you like him or not, it’s hard not to admit Kyle’s talents as a driver. That said he’s been plagued through his short career by a lack of maturity and focus. He’s definitely calmed down a lot this season, but with a truck team and his Nationwide efforts also on his mind does he consistently have what it takes to win on Sunday? Kyle Busch will be likely be a Cup Champion in the not too distant future, whether that could be this season remains to be seen.
The Roush Cars: Forgive me for grouping these guys together, but they all have the same problem – an inability to overcome the performance hump. Ford has struggled all year with the switchover to the FR9 and the Roush drivers just haven’t been as competitive as they should be. Greg Biffle is the last Ford driver to win a race back in Pocono. Before that it was Matt Kenseth last February at California. And Carl Edwards hasn’t seen victory lane since Homestead 2008. All of these guys are good enough to win championships – I’m just not sure the teams are there performance wise.
Kurt Busch: Just like many of his fellow Chasers, consistency, or lack thereof, has plagued Kurt Busch. It’s hard to believe Roger Penske doesn’t have a Cup championship. He’s certainly had drivers with the talent to do it, and teams formidable enough to compete, but it just hasn’t happened. Since becoming the lone Dodge team Penske, the organization, looks good. Kurt Busch could deliver “The Captain” his first Cup Series championship, I just don’t know if this will be the year.
Tony Stewart: This isn’t 2009 – and Tony Stewart knows it. He has hustled for every good finish he’s had this season. Though they struggled after the implementation of the spoiler, Stewart’s team looks to be back on track as of late. Since Dover he’s had 11 top-ten finishes, five top-five finishes, two second place finishes and one win. While he’s going to need to run a little bit better – as in more wins – Tony Stewart may be hitting his stride at the right time.
Jeff Gordon: Speaking of overcoming the hump. I feel bad for this team. They’re good year in and year out, but Jeff Gordon hasn’t won a race since April of 2009. Before that it was October of 2007. This season Gordon has 10 top-five finishes but no wins to speak of. He’s certainly got what it takes, but this team needs to find that little bit extra to make them a serious contender. Jeff Gordon can be a five time champion, but some things are going to have to improve.
The other two Childress Cars: Consistent but not Championship great – at least so far this season. Both Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer are consistent performers for RCR, but they, like Gordon, just haven’t been able to close the deal. Burton has been in position a couple of times this season only to lose it because of mistakes. Bowyer, like Burton, hasn’t had a win since 2008 and is probably going to need to be a little stronger to truly compete. If these two are going to go head-to-head with Kevin Harvick they’re going to need to find some speed, and fast. They’re capable, but I have my doubts.
Following Sunday’s race at Atlanta, ten of the twelve Chase drivers are set, with Greg Biffle needing to finish only 42nd or better at Richmond to be in, and Clint Bowyer needing a 28th or better to be in. So with the field all but set, who’s your pick to win the 2010 Cup Series Championship?
Just in case you need a little reminder, here are the twelve drivers that will battle for the title over the final ten races (barring any last minute heroics by Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, or Mark Martin):
After Richmond, the points will be reset among the twelve, with the number of wins being the determining factor for who starts where in the standings and with how many points. Right now, Johnson and Hamlin have the most wins, each with five, so they will be atop the standings heading to New Hampshire.
Now, with everything we’ve seen this season, and what we know of each of these drivers and how they race, who’s your champion? Does Jimmie win a fifth straight? Will a Childress driver finally break through? Will Ford emerge over the last ten races? Let’s hear it!
Also, both Journo and myself wanted to wish everyone a safe and happy Labor Day weekend!
Is the Chase not good enough for the Nationwide and Truck Series, or are the Nationwide and Truck Series not good enough for the Chase?
As NASCAR tries to fix what probably doesn’t need to be fixed, I’ve got wonder how long it’s going to take them to start applying the points changes (that is the six year old changes) to their two other series.
I know, for many of you, the Chase is a sore subject – and you would just as soon see them get rid of it than see it expanded. No matter your feelings though, doesn’t having two different systems to determine champions throughout the sport undermine the legitimacy of the most contested points system?
I won’t get into NASCAR making changes to the Chase (for the record I think it’s a bad idea – and feel free to discuss it), but I do believe there needs to be uniformity across the series in how a champion is crowned.
In one breath NASCAR is saying the Chase is a great way to determine a champion (though apparently not great enough), and then in the other (though not directly) acknowledging the strength of the old system by allowing it to continue in two of its three national series. Hence the undermining.
I get we’re supposed to have three distinct and unique series. Despite those differences though, and the individual strengths of each of the series, I firmly believe NASCAR needs to administer all three as similarly as possible. If one has a Chase, they should all have a Chase.
On top of that, I think it serves its purpose well enough. We get better fights at the end of the season – and more often than not the best driver does win. So why can’t this work in the Truck and Nationwide Series?
I know it’s not a big thing, but I want a sport that functions like a cohesive unit – not like three stand alone bodies. It may, or may not bother you that NASCAR doesn’t use a uniform system across all three of its series, but it kind of bothers me.
What do you think? Is uniformity in the points necessary across all three series? Would you like to see the Chase be the points system across the sport?
Look around and you’ll see a common headline: ‘Jimmie Johnson is back.’ For weeks many questioned whether the #48 team had lost its Midas touch. After all Johnson went (gasp!) 10 races in between wins. In that time he had two DNFs, and three finishes worse than 30th. Jimmie had hit rock bottom. Or had he?
I wrote here a little more than a month ago that the team was struggling, not because of the spoiler as many had suggested, but because of bad luck and mistakes. The truth is the team has run quite well despite a few hiccups here and there.
Since the implementation of the spoiler – and before his latest two wins – Johnson had six top-10s, three top-fives, one pole, and he led a total of 422 laps (in spite of those two DNFs, and three bad finishes). Since Charlotte, where Johnson finished 37th after a series of maladies, he has finished 5th, 6th, 1st, and 1st.
As we move forward through the season there are certainly still questions about Johnson and team #48. Can they shake the bad luck and mistakes for the remainder of the season? Will the new addition to the Johnson family make any difference? And could Jimmie be peaking too early?
Still this season is shaping up a lot like Johnson’s 2007 championship season. Some bad luck, and DNF’s through the mid-point of the season gave way to ten wins, and one of Johnson’s best seasons to date. Six of Johnson’s wins came after Daytona, and four of those wins came during the Chase (four in a row to be exact).
My point with all this is to say Jimmie may have had some bad luck, and certainly made a few mistakes during the first half of this season, but he has never faded from competitiveness. Perhaps an argument could be made that the field is catching up to Johnson – he’s not necessarily having the dominating performances he has had in past years. Competition is strong from a number of teams. Johnson and Denny Hamlin, for instance, will, at this moment, enter the Chase tied for first with their win totals. Certainly, I think this year he’ll face some stiffer competition going into and through the Chase, but don’t count out team #48.
Is Jimmie back? As far as I can tell he never left.