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This past weekend at Texas Tony Stewart notched his fourth win in the Chase – it was an impressive feat considering that prior to the first Chase race in Chicago it had been 32 races since he’d last seen victory lane. Despite the late string of success, Stewart still finds himself second in the championship points standings. For some that’s inexplicable.
This fundamental question of what’s more important in the push to a championship is something that’s dogged NASCAR and motorsports for a long time. Do we want a champion who the had the best overall Chase, or the one who had the most wins? Often times they are not one and the same.
NASCAR, prior to this season, retooled the points in an effort to simplify and put slightly more emphasis on winning. The new system gave three extra points to the top finisher in addition to another point for leading a lap. NASCAR also gave the two teams outside of the top-10 but inside the top-20 with the most wins berths in the Chase.
The result of the points changes, while certainly an improvement and much easier to understand has been pretty insignificant this season. But is that a bad thing?
Championship success in NASCAR unlike other sports is not and never has been solely based on winning. It’s of course important, but consistency and good finishes are often the key. Consider Carl Edwards has an average finish of 9.7 on the season, with one win, and 5.6 in the Chase with no wins. Tony Stewart on the other hand is averaging a finish of 12.6 on the season and 7.3 in Chase. For Stewart that includes those four wins.
Carl has without a doubt put together the better, more consistent season. He’s even put together the better, more consistent Chase. And that’s why he finds himself leading the points.
I’ve always been of the belief that the best team should win the championship no matter how it gets there. In this case I want the team with the best Chase performance to win it all. Whether that means the championship winning team has the most wins or the most number of better finishes.
So what do you think should get the emphasis? Consistency? Or wins? Does NASCAR need to restructure the points again? Should Tony Stewart be leading the points?
After Sunday’s dominant performance at Kansas, Jimmie Johnson is once again the talk of the Chase. After a rough start to the playoffs, Johnson has rebounded to close within four points of the lead. But right behind Johnson, who sits third in the standings, is Brad Keselowski. Following a third place finish at Kansas, Keselowski is now only 11 points behind leader Carl Edwards. And since the Loudon race in July, he’s on one hell of a run that may just carry him to the head table in Las Vegas.
Consider this, over the last 11 races, Brad K. has finished outside the top ten only twice (12th at Richmond, 20th at Dover). And, of those nine top ten finishes, seven are actually top five finishes including two wins. He’s gone from 23rd in the standings to fourth. Needless to say, he’s been the hottest driver in NASCAR over the last few months.
Looking ahead, the final six races of the season are Charlotte, Talladega, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead. We’ve already raced at five of those tracks, and Keselowski had finishes of 19th, 33rd, 19th, 18th, and 15th respectively. That’s not a good omen, until you look at how Keselowski has improved at tracks he’s seen for the second time this year. Of the eight race tracks we’ve already raced twice this season, Brad has improved his finish from the first race to the second six times. He didn’t improve at Dover, 13th to 20th, and he didn’t improve at Kansas. But it’s important to note that he won the first race at Kansas, and finished third the second race.
With six races still remaining, literally anything could happen. That is especially true with Talladega looming. At this point, we can realistically say that the top eight drivers probably still have a decent shot at the title. Everyone from Dale Earnhardt Jr. in ninth back is 43 or more points behind, which will be nearly impossible to make up. But of those still in it, Brad Keselowski just might be the guy. With the run he’s currently on, I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.
Jimmie Johnson had a rough few weeks. He was involved in an on-track altercation with Kurt Busch at Richmond – he finished 31st. He went on to Chicago and had a respectable, but not overwhelming 10th place run. Then he struggled at New Hampshire, finishing 18th.
The driver found himself 29 points back in 10th, the farthest back he’d ever been in a Chase at that point. And to top it off, it looked like there was trouble in paradise between Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. Surely Johnson was done for – or so some would have had you believing.
Barring another miraculous comeback – which is not out of the question – Jimmie Johnson’s five-year reign as NASCAR Sprint Cup champion may finally come to an end this season.
And then we got to Dover. Johnson qualified sixth, led 157 laps and ultimately finished second. That seemingly insurmountable 29 point deficit was cut to just 13 and Johnson picked up five spots in the Chase.
Not a surprising feat for this team.
For the last several seasons the “is Johnson done for?” parlor game has been especially popular for the NASCAR press corps – this year, with Johnson not quite as hot as he has been, the speculation has been just as strong (fair disclaimer, we’ve admittedly been guilty of it). But it seems, just when everyone starts counting them out, team #48 starts making its ascent.
It’s happened a couple times mid-season over the last five years when the team soured, and it happened during Johnson’s inaugural championship run in 2006 when he overcame four straight finishes under 13th (including a 39th and 24th). Still Johnson and Knaus always got it together and came out on top.
We’re just three races into the Chase, and we have one of the strongest Chase fields we’ve ever had, but if last weekend was any indication, this year may not be any different. The fact is, Knaus and Johnson are good, very good. They’ve proven that season after season. And despite the occasional bickering and disagreement the two have chemistry like few before.
For me, after five straight, I’m done counting Jimmie and Chad out. That is until we’re sitting in Las Vegas with someone else at the head table. It’ll happen sooner or later.
Before Daytona, I wrote a blog post with some random thoughts entering the season. In it, I made predictions about which drivers I thought would win each championship. I said Ron Hornaday would take the Truck title, Elliott Sadler would be your Nationwide champ, and Denny Hamlin would break through and win the Cup. Of the three choices, only Sadler still has a realistic shot. So much for predictions. Of the three choices, I really felt like Hamlin had the best chance, but 2011 has been anything but a dream season. And three races into the Chase, Hamlin is all but eliminated.
In my explanation for why I chose Hamlin, I said:
The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
Knowing what we know now, it would appear that maybe the opposite happened. It almost seems as though the disappointment of losing the 2010 title the way they did, and a slow start to 2011 might have ended Hamlin’s season before it started. Statistically, 2011 is the worst full season of Denny’s career. His average finish hasn’t been this low since 2005, when he only ran seven races.
Hamlin and his team have certainly been the victim of a lot of bad luck, and Joe Gibbs Racing struggled mightily with their engine program this season (so bad in fact, they are now working with TRD). But the poor luck and the lack of performance all seem to have affected Hamlin’s psyche. We found out this week that Denny has been seeing a sports psychologist. He hopes that having fun over the final races will lead to better results and some momentum for 2012.
Finishes of 31st, 29th, and 18th in the first three Chase races have effectively ended any hope of Hamlin and Co. contending for the championship. And one has to wonder if maybe Mike Ford’s job could be in jeopardy. Hamlin and JGR are certainly a strong enough combination to contend for championships, and the Coach and J.D. will do whatever is necessary to keep Hamlin up front. Hopefully Hamlin can quickly forget 2011 and start fresh for 2012.
There was an interesting piece today on NASCAR.com where Joe Menzer and Bill Kimm faced off about whether or not Chase teams should be allowed to make pit crew changes. They referenced the changes that have happened to Kevin Harvick’s team the last two years, and the mid-race change for the #48 at Texas last season. Kimm was against allowing changes, saying that no other sport allows changes to playoff rosters. I disagree, and instead side with Menzer in the debate. Teams should be allowed to make whatever changes they see fit, and at whatever time. NASCAR is a performance based business, and teams must be able to make changes when they are needed.
If NASCAR instituted some sort of roster rule, I believe it would actually create more problems than it would solve. First, when is the deadline for roster moves? If its something where teams can’t make changes before the Chase starts, everyone will just make their changes before hand. Second, what does a team do if they have an injury to a pit crew guy during the Chase? They are going to have to fill that spot. So if the roster rule has some sort of provision that allows for backups at each spot in case of injury, what’s to stop a team from reporting an injury or two just to make a change? NASCAR teams are known for finding ways to circumvent the rules, and we’ve seen a recent memo from the NFL regarding faking injuries, so you’d know it would happen in our sport.
From a team standpoint, it’s important to understand that they are trying to do everything possible to give their Chase drivers a shot at the championship. And at every multi-car team, there is going to be one pit crew that is better than the other(s). So if they can slide guys around to strengthen a team, they are going to do it. It certainly sucks if you are on the crew that gets replaced, but this isn’t little league racing. There is a lot at stake and we are all grown men. If you don’t like it, go find something else to do.
I also want to point out that I don’t think these moves give the affected drivers some sort of advantage. It isn’t like these Chase teams are sacking other teams to put together some sort of super pit crew. Everybody has contracts these days, and changes are just happening within organizations. And as close as the competition is on pit road, there isn’t a huge difference in the skill and ability of the top pit crews. Swapping the 33 guys to Harvick’s team might mean more consistency during stops, but he isn’t magically going to get 10 or 11 second stops. That bunch is still the same group that has pitted Bowyer’s car all year.
I think fans need to remember that races can be lost on pit road, but they cannot be won there. The crews can help put their drivers in the right position, but there is no finish line at the end of pit road. What a solid, consistent pit crew does, is allow their driver to be the reason why a race is won or lost. That’s really all we are asked to do.
Pit road has played a big roll in the outcome of races this season, and as the Cup and Nationwide Series search for their 2011 champions, an even bigger emphasis will be placed on the crews. Those drivers with the strongest pit crews will have a serious advantage as we come into the home stretch. Knowing that, some teams have made moves to strengthen their performance over the wall. Two recent pit crew shakeups have already paid dividends to their teams, and the moves could be crucial in the hopes of two contenders.
Saturday night in Richmond, Kevin Harvick re-emerged as a legitimate title contender. After spending much of the summer struggling to find some measure of mojo, Harvick and the 29 team showed they are ready to take a shot at unseating the 48. And what was a big key to Harvick’s fourth win of the season? A key pit stop late in the race. With 15 laps to go, a caution brought the field to pit road, and fast work by Harvick’s crew put the 29 ahead of Jeff Gordon on the ensuing restart. Harvick was then able to hold off Carl Edwards for the win, and secure his spot tied with Kyle Busch atop the standings heading to Chicago.
If you might remember, it’s only been a few weeks since Richard Childress Racing replaced it’s pit crew coach. And along with the coaching change came a new front changer for Harvick’s crew. Tim Sheets, who has spent the season changing for Elliott Sadler’s #2 team in the Nationwide Series, was brought up to help alleviate some of the pit stop issues Harvick has experienced this season. Needless to say, the move has worked.
In the Nationwide Series, the battle for the driver’s title is a tight one. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. only has a 16 point cushion between himself and second place Elliott Sadler with seven races remaining. In order to give Stenhouse the best possible chance to win the championship, Jack Roush has pulled out all the stops. After a tough night at Atlanta, Stenhouse’s entire pit crew was replaced with the #6 Cup crew of David Ragan. The change provided immediate results. With the double duty #6 guys servicing his race car at Richmond, Stenhouse never ran lower than seventh in the race, and finished a very strong third behind Kyle Busch and Edwards.
Because racing has become so tight out on the track, teams have discovered that it is often easier to make passes on pit road. And in order to do that, they need the quickest six guys they can put together. As the Chase gets ready to kick off this weekend, expect pit road to be a big factor in who takes home this season’s Cup.
I’ve probably written this sentence about a dozen times so far this year, but wow this is shaping up to be a season to remember. After this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen we have 15 different winners and five different first-time winners. Those are extraordinary numbers from a season that still has 14 races left.
Consider last year – there were only 13 different winners by the time we reached Homestead in November.
The numbers are even more impressive when considered against other forms of American motorsports. In the IndyCar Series, in addition to other issues, there have been seven different winners in 13 races. And in a season dominated by the Chip Ganassi Racing team, the Grand-Am Rolex Sports Car Series has just four different winners in 10 races.
With 11 of the top-20 in the Cup Series already winners so far this season, who else is in a position to win and compete for those two wildcard slots in the Chase?
The group above accounts for the most likely future winners this season. Still, we make another stop at Talladega and with the out of nowhere wins from a couple this season, the next Cup Series winner may be completely off the radar. Stay tuned because this is just getting interesting.
You saw it today.
Brad Keselowski pounded a concrete barrier earlier in the week during a test session at Road Atlanta, ended up with a painful avulsion fracture in his left ankle, and somehow went on to win at Pocono. And to think earlier in the week there was talk he may not race at all this weekend. Now, he’s in a very good position to make the Chase.
We’ve seen it many times with stick and ball sports. A guy gets hurt, and then somehow goes on to have the game of his life. Names like Kirk Gibson and Byron Leftwich immediately come to mind. Gibson hit a huge home run in the World Series and could barely run the bases because of sickness and injured legs. And we all remember Leftwich getting carried to the line of scrimmage by his teammates after he broke his shin during a game while at Marshall University. The really tough players know that when they aren’t at their best physically, they need to dig a little deeper. Often times guys rise to the challenge and discover a new level of focus. And that focus leads to unbelievable performances.
What we all witnessed on Sunday at Pocono was a tough competitor doing exactly that. Keselowski, who even spun his car during practice on Friday, was able to overcome the pain of a fractured ankle and beat a lot of really strong drivers for his second win of the season. And in the process, he put himself in position to race in his first Chase. Talk about coming up big in a very difficult situation.
I’ve seen it mentioned on Twitter that maybe Keselowski shouldn’t have raced because of the injury. I understand the argument that you want your fellow competitors to be in tip-top shape when they are racing around you at 200MPH. And I might even buy that argument, except that Brad K. was cleared by doctors. Yes he was injured, but it’s not like he was suffering from a head injury. If he’s up to it, and the doctors say it’s okay, then have at it.
We could be witnessing the creation of NASCAR’s next big name, and if Sunday’s performance didn’t earn Keselowski your respect, then nothing will.
Since 1994 the Brickyard 400 has stood apart as one of the premier events on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Winning on the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a dream for most racecar drivers. And on Sunday the track delivered twice giving Paul Menard not just a Brickyard 400 victory, but his first ever Cup Series win (the first ever, first-time winner at the Brickyard).
The last 50 laps of the 400 were some of the more interesting I’ve seen at the track. There were two packs, two ideas and it was really anybody’s race. Eventually it was the kid who spent much of his life around the track watching a different kind of racing, crossing the bricks first. It was hard not to be excited for Menard.
The extraordinary thing about Sunday’s finish was that Menard became the 14th different winner and the fourth different first-time winner of the season. Those aren’t record breaking numbers just yet (19 in 1956 and 2001), but it is, I think, a testament to strength of competition in the sport right now. In addition to those 14, there is a long list of drivers with the means to win who haven’t.
Menard’s win also adds him to the list of drivers competing for the Chase’s two wild card slots. There are currently six different winners outside of the top-10 in points (Denny Hamlin, Paul Menard, David Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne – who of course is not eligible for the Chase). Of those six, four are eligible and in the requisite top-20 in the points. Right now it’s Denny Hamlin and Paul Menard who make the cut.
So far, this season has been one to remember. With 16 races left and just six until the start of the Chase, I doubt we’ve seen the end to the 2011 surprises. Stay tuned.
Feel free to use this as your Brickyard and 2011 season sound off post. What did you think about Paul Menard’s first win? How about the parity we’ve seen so far this season? Do you think we can beat the record of 19 different winners? Talk amongst yourselves.