Sunday’s race at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, dominated by fuel mileage, mistakes, and both Stewart Haas cars continued what has been a season of parity and added another contender to the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Ryan Newman’s victory made him the 13th different winner after 19 races this season and gave him a one spot boost in the points. Perhaps more importantly, it gave Newman a win, further strengthening his chances at a spot in the Chase.
Past the halfway point of the season and with just seven races to go until the Chase begins, who gets in is still very fluid. At the top, Carl Edwards retook the points lead from Kyle Busch after Busch cut down a tire early on, and Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch made up spots. At the bottom, Dale Earnhardt Jr. lost one spot to ninth, while David Ragan and Kasey Kahne picked up two and three spots respectively to 13th and 14th (Kahne and Greg Biffle each have 523 points). Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin both have 570 points in 10th and 11th.
With wins being the ticket to the Chase outside the top-ten, there are currently four drivers who fit the bill and have been to victory lane – David Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne. Of those four, two have a realistic shot of making it into the requisite top-20.
The first of those two, David Ragan, is in good shape with his 13th place points position, but Brad Keselowski sits 23rd in the points – losing two spots this weekend. If Keselowski hopes to compete for a championship this year, he’s going to have to make up some ground – lucky for him there are only 95 points separating 23rd from 12th. With a good run over the next seven races that is certainly surmountable.
Competing with those two are the other chasers without a win, and those within the top-20 without a win. Considering the amount of parity there has been this season who makes it and who doesn’t is still wide open.
So what do you think? Who makes the Chase, who doesn’t? Feel free to sound off on the Championship Chase and the race at New Hampshire.
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This was a tough weekend for Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the #88 team. For the second time this season they came just short of a win; oddly enough, to the same guy – Kevin Harvick. On top of that, the conspiracy mill was in full force this week over the caution that didn’t get called at the end of the race. It was a disappointing way to end what had been a good a day.
Even with that bad day it’s hard to feel too bad for Earnhardt Jr. Consider these stats from NASCAR:
Those are stats to be proud of considering the difficulty of the last few seasons. Remember this is a guy who is on his fourth crew chief since 2005, and though he has 18 Cup wins in 12 full seasons, he has just three wins since 2005. The success of the DEI years have yet to be replicated at Hendrick.
Chemistry has clearly been important for Earnhardt Jr.’s success (as it is for most teams) and it was a key thing missing with Tony Eury Jr., and Lance McGrew. He needed someone to support him, to serve as a cheerleader and to achieve on the box – I think he’s found all that in Steve Letarte.
In interviews and on the track he just seems to be a happier guy. His worst finish of the year was at Daytona – a 24th – and he’s finished on the lead lap in all but two races. Last year, at this same point, he had three sub-29th place finishes and sat 16th in the points.
Without a doubt, Hendrick is providing Earnhardt Jr. with the equipment he needs to get things done. That key chemistry has been missing for a while though and I think they may just have found it. There is still two-thirds of the season remaining, but Junior looks to be on track for his first Chase appearance since 2008. And you never know when they could end up in victory lane.
All in all, things could be worse.
Coming off of a season that saw a pot hole mar the opening race and then rain and other issues combine to make for a less than stellar start, 2011 has been nothing short of a breath of fresh air in the Cup Series. And consider this, with Jimmie Johnson’s come from behind win Sunday in Talladega this season has produced seven different winners in eight different races – not a bad start to the season.
Add to that solid start four different championship points leaders and six different lead changes and you’ve got a season that hasn’t really had a stand out driver or team through the first portion.
Our current top-ten in points have had some good stats to back them up – all have at least four top-tens, and with the exception of Kurt Busch, all have at least two top-fives. Half of them have wins. All – with the exception of Kurt Busch – hold the distinction though of having at least one finish of 24th or worse. Some have finishes a lot worse.
The only guy to score repeat wins? Well so far, Kevin Harvick has a DNF at Daytona and two sub-17th place finishes on top of that. His season has so far been a bit of a roller coaster.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the only drivers to have any measure of consistency are the top-three. Carl Edwards is averaging a finish of 8.2 (with blemishes at Phoenix and Martinsville); Jimmie Johnson is averaging a finish of 8.9 with one bad run at Daytona; and Dale Earnhardt Jr., though he is winless, is channeling that classic Steve Letarte consistency, averaging a 10th place finish with just one DNF (a 24th place finish) at Daytona.
Even with the brighter spots in the top-ten, the points are still close enough for drivers to have big swings in and out. Both Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth jumped five spots (in opposite directions) this past weekend.
The fact is, and I think this speaks to the level of competition we have right now in the sport, there just isn’t a dominate team. Going into race nine, it gets harder to turn seven out of eight into eight out of nine, but with the way this season has gone, anything could happen.
So what do you think? Has anybody stood out to you? Who’s most likely to make an early run?
Did you know since the start of the season only one non-Cup regular has won a national series event? The driver? Trevor Bayne.
Who would have thought by this point in the season, 11 races in (counting all the races in all three series), the Daytona 500 winner would be the only non-Cup regular to win a race? Crazy. This leads me to wonder what effect the points changes have had on who is racing where. Though I’ve been moderately supportive of the changes, the obvious answer is not much.
Kyle Busch, or a Kyle Busch owned team has won five of 11 races – four of which have come in a non-Cup Series event. We’ve seen NASCAR veterans Mark Martin and Michael Waltrip win, and Kasey Kahne continue his perfect Truck Series streak. We’ve had a lot of compelling storylines; the regulars in the Truck and Nationwide Series just haven’t been part of it.
As a result the points leaders in the two lowers series who have no wins and just one top-five finish between the two of them. In the Nationwide Series it’s Jason Leffler who leads the points with no top-fives and three top-tens. He’s averaging an 8.5 place finish. Series veteran Matt Crafton leads the truck points with one top-five and three top-10s. He’s averaging a seventh place finish.
Your second place driver in the Truck Series? That’s 19-year-old Cole Whitt with just two top-ten finishes to his name.
Ironically, for all the early seasion talk from NASCAR about how the points changes would put a little more emphasis on wins, the Cup Series points leader, Kurt Busch, also has no wins, just one one top-five, and four top-tens. Is consistency still the king? It sure is looking that way.
While I was definitely an advocate of some kind of a points move, I’m sorry to see what they’ve done hasn’t really changed anything. Certainly we don’t expect Kyle Busch et al to run the full season in the Truck and Nationwide Series, but their presence thus far has been overwhelming – and in most cases stifling. There is still a lot of season to go, but from what we’ve seen so far, I don’t expect too many changes.
So three – or four – races in what do you think about the points changes? Was it what you expected? Give us your points opinion so far!
With all the hype leading into this final race we certainly had an exciting finish. Who wasn’t on edge after Denny Hamlin spun, Jimmie Johnson’s crew (continually) screwed up, and Kevin Harvick got caught speeding on pit road? I was on the edge of my seat until the final laps.
And so after 36 races and thousands of miles we have our 2010 champion – the same champion we had in 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006. This is an accomplishment Jimmie Johnson and his crew should be proud of and something we all should be celebrating. But I suspect most of us aren’t.
The fact is, despite the hype, that end was kind of deflating.
I struggled after the race to find a way to think about this positively. It really is an extraordinary thing. But the truth is, I wasn’t really all that excited about it. The only thing I could think was, “NASCAR and ESPN thought the ratings were bad this season.”
I can’t tell you, over the past two and half years, how many people have e-mailed or commented at their waning interest in the sport over the #48′s dominance. I fear this will only make that worse. And I can’t really blame people – I’m getting bored. I say this too feeling bad for thinking Jimmie’s success is hurting the sport, but I honestly believe it is.
While they would never admit it, I think the folks at NASCAR see it too. The changes to the points that they’re considering have got to be, to some extent, as a result of what he’s been able to do – and even with today, we had a different path, but the exact same result.
I write this with no ill will toward Jimmie Johnson. I think Jimmie is a great guy and I think he and the #48 team are to be commended for all of their success. But this isn’t good for this sport. That said, I’m just not sure there is anything NASCAR or Jimmie’s fellow competitors can do about it.
With that, we’ll be off for the next week taking a little vacation (we’ll be moderating comments though). Check back next Monday for a new TNI post and our off-season schedule. We hope you all have safe and happy Thanksgiving!
It’s hard to believe, but we’re just a couple of days away from the end of the season. And with a three way battle for the championship I thought now would be as good a time as any for my annual look at the points within the Chase and in the old points format.
Current Points Under the Old System:
1)#29-Kevin Harvick, 5109 2) #48-Jimmie Johnson, 4814, -295 3) #11-Denny Hamlin, 4744, -365 4) #99-Carl Edwards, 4625, -484 5) #24-Jeff Gordon, 4617, -492 6) #18-Kyle Busch, 4580, -529 7) #17-Matt Kenseth, 4497, -612 8 ) #14-Tony Stewart, 4481, -628 9) #2-Kurt Busch, 4350, -759 10) #31-Jeff Burton, 4348, -761 11) #16-Greg Biffle, 4280, -829 12) #33-Clint Bowyer, 4249, -860 13) #5-Mark Martin, 4249, -860 14) #1-Jamie McMurray, 4225, -884
Current Points Under the Chase:
1)#11-Denny Hamlin, 6462 2) #48-Jimmie Johnson, 6447, -15 3) #29-Kevin Harvick, 6416, -46 4) #99-Carl Edwards, 6198, -264 5) #17-Matt Kenseth, 6151, -311 6) #24-Jeff Gordon, 6124, -338 7) #18-Kyle Busch, 6115, -347 8 ) #16-Greg Biffle, 6113, -349 9) #14-Tony Stewart, 6074, -388 10) #2-Kurt Busch, 6033, -429 11) #33-Clint Bowyer, 6028, -434 12) #31-Jeff Burton, 5958, -504 13) #5-Mark Martin, 4249, -2213 14) #1-Jamie McMurray, 4225, -2237
In previous years what we’ve seen is a lot of similarity between the two lists, this year, not as much.
Only Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards maintain their same positions within both points systems. And for a few it’s one shift down or up. While the lists are different, the cream is at the top of both.
No doubt though, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have benefited substantially from the Chase – without it they’d be out of the fight. Obviously, Kevin Harvick has benefited the least.
Under the old system Harvick would have easily pulled out the Championship win – in fact we would have been celebrating that one a couple of weeks ago. Now we’ve got a three way Chase (finally) going into the last race. I know it’s worn and tired, but with just 46 points separating first from third, it’s still anybody’s game.
Every year I do this, I always get scolded by someone for taking part in this “pointless, what if practice.” At the very least though it’s entertaining to see how the two differ – for the sake of curiosity. For me, I think it’s interesting to see how, despite the implementation of a thing like the Chase, the best cars from that season are always the ones competing for the championship – if not a little closer than they would have been.
Chase or not, I know I’m looking forward to seeing how this thing ends on Sunday.
And then there was one.
Heading into Homestead this weekend for the final race of the 2010 season, the championship race is still wide open. After Phoenix, Denny Hamlin now leads Jimmie Johnson by a scant 15 points, and Kevin Harvick by 46. The race to determine the champion could literally come down to the last lap.
At Phoenix, where it appeared that both the 11 and 29 teams had missteps that could have cost them big, both came out pretty well. Even with having to pit late for two tires and fuel Hamlin fought back to 12th, and Harvick was able to overcome a pit stop issue to finish sixth.
With Homestead looming, I wanted to take a second to point out each driver’s stats at the track. In his career, Harvick has an average finish of 8.4, with four top five and seven top 10 finishes. Johnson has an average finish of 12.7 with three top five and six top ten finishes. While Hamlin has an average finish of 10.6, with one win, three top five, and three top ten finishes. No driver appears to be dramatically better then the others, but it is interesting to point out that Hamlin has won their previously, and Johnson has the worst average finish.
As you digest the finish at Phoenix and look forward to the finale, we wanted to give you this opportunity to sound off about the championship. Which driver and team will rise to the top and win the title, and why do you think so? Talk amongst yourselves!
As the Cup Series enters its final three race stretch, NASCAR finally has the championship race the Chase promised (a familiar refrain I know). With just 38 points separating first from third, this is still a wide open fight. Look to the two lower series though and there is a very different story.
For all intents and purposes the championship races in the Nationwide and Truck Series have been over for a while. In the Nationwide Series, Brad Keselowski has run away from the pack (thanks in large part to Kyle Busch’s partial schedule). Going into the final three races he has a 485 point lead over second place Carl Edwards. It looks like the Captain will finally get a championship in NASCAR.
Then there’s Todd Bodine in the Truck Series. Though he fought early on in the season with young guys like Timothy Peters and Aric Almirola, he’s held a convincing lead for the last couple of months. As it stands right now, Bodine has a 216 point lead over Aric Almirola in second place.
The dichotomy of these two points systems is interesting in the continuing debate over the Chase. While we still have a race and a story in the Cup Series (on top of the actual race every week), we’re only watching the other two series – barring any unforeseen circumstances – to see the individual events .
This is of course what NASCAR has been trying to find since they implemented the Chase in 2004. This playoff like system has been hailed by the sport, but not very well received by many fans. I think that’s in large part due to the fact that it really hasn’t worked like planned. On top of that the same guy has won the championship the last four years (and is in the points lead right now).
I know I’ve written a ton of Chase related posts here before, but given the points situations, where we have a lock in two series and a wide open race in the other (thanks to the Chase system), which system do you prefer (if they’re working like they should)? Which system do you think is working?
Increasingly, I’m not sure which I prefer. I do know I’d like to see some uniformity throughout the sport, but that’s honestly neither here nor there.
So what do you think? Are you interested in the Chase this year? Do you like what you’re seeing? Do you prefer a system that allows us to have a runaway winner? Or do you like it’s traditional consistency? Feel free to talk amongst yourselves.
After all the talk leading up to this weekend about Talladega being a wild card race (yes, I’m guilty too), it turned out to be quite the opposite. Instead of being a track where championship hopefuls have their chances dashed away with one wrong move and “the big one,” all we’ve come out the other side with is a Chase that is even tighter.
Following the race on Sunday, our top three Chasers are now only separated by 38 points. Jimmie Johnson leads Denny Hamlin by 14 points, and Kevin Harvick is another 24 back. Heading into the final three races of 2010, the championship is still completely up for grabs.
During the race, Johnson and Hamlin dropped to the back and were hoping to ride out the madness until the very end. The “riding around in the back all race” strategy worked for Johnson, but it nearly bit Hamlin. While attempting to avoid the front of the pack, Hamlin lost the lead draft and went a lap down. He was able to get a lucky dog late in the race, and came back to finish ninth.
Instead of running in the back like his fellow Chasers, Harvick chose to run in the pack all race long. His wreck with Marcos Ambrose late in the race though showed that no strategy is safe at Talladega. Good work by his crew, and a crazy finish saw Harvick finish a close second to teammate Clint Bowyer.
Looking at each driver’s career statistics at the three remaining tracks, it would appear that with the exception of Johnson at Phoenix, none of the three have a real discernible advantage. The #48 has been awesome at Phoenix, with no finishes outside the top four in their last eight starts (including four wins), but they have had their struggles at Texas and Homestead. And Harvick and Hamlin have both proven they are capable of winning at any of these three tracks.
Minimizing any mistakes is obviously going to be the key over the final three races. Two of our three contenders had some troubles on Sunday, but they were both able to overcome them. As the pressure mounts, who will blink first?
If there is one thing we’ve heard about this weekend’s race at Talladega, it’s that it will be unpredictable. The COT combined with the restrictor plate and the current rules package means the cars will run around the 2.66 mile superspeedway in tight packs. And tight packs often mean big wrecks. What I don’t really understand, is why all of a sudden it seems as if “Talladega” and “Daytona” have become four letter words.
While I’m certainly not a fan of wrecks of any kind (big or small), I do enjoy the racing at the superspeedways. Having the entire field running right together, lap after lap, has always been exciting to me. The thought that literally everyone has a decent shot to win (see Brad Keselowski), coupled with the 200mph chess game that goes on for 500 miles really makes for great racing in my opinion.
Some have argued that because races at these tracks are so unpredictable, and that the drivers don’t have as much control, maybe Talladega shouldn’t be in the Chase. With crashes being common here, this race could theoretically end a driver’s chances of winning the championship. But, I would contend that the fact that we have no idea what will happen is exactly why this race should be in the Chase. Right now, only Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick sit within 100 points of leader Jimmie Johnson, but bad finishes by all three could put everyone from fourth to tenth right back in the hunt. Now that would be excitement.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t watch sports of any kind because I want to see finishes that are easily predictable. If the favorites won all the time, no sport would be fun, interesting, or entertaining to watch. We want to see good racing, upsets, and crazy finishes. As ESPN’s Chris Berman says, “that’s why they play the game.”
With all that is on the line this weekend, I believe we could be in for a great race. We’ve got a very tight championship battle, along with plenty of non-Chasers who are hungry for a win, and that combined with the madness that is Talladega and we’ve got a recipe for a real wild card weekend.