Aug 11th, 2011 by T.C.
Now that the future at Roush Fenway is becoming more clear, we can begin to look at the other RFR drivers awaiting their fates. If the #99 seat was vacated, it was assumed that Trevor Bayne or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. would be in line to fill it. But since that now won’t happen, Bayne and Stenhouse’s futures are unclear. USA Today’s Nate Ryan wrote yesterday that Bayne expects to run a similar schedule next season as he ran in 2011. And Stenhouse told ESPN’s David Newton that there is no current definitive plan for him next season, but that he’d like to run another full NNS schedule and possibly Cup races for Richard Petty Motorsports (which has room to expand). With these two young drivers in the pipeline, RFR looks to be in a good position. But the situation begs the question, who’s the better Cup prospect?
Looking over their young careers, the two drivers have very similar statistics. Stenhouse’s NNS numbers (two wins and more top five and top ten finishes) are a tick better than Bayne’s, but both of their average finishes are right near 16. Stenhouse only has one Cup start (11th at Charlotte) versus Bayne’s 12 starts. But outside of his Daytona 500 win, Bayne’s best finish is a 16th at Michigan. In a close decision, advantage Stenhouse in the performance department.
In saying that however, I think it’s important to point out that Bayne missed time this season due to illness, and he’s in his first season with crew chief Chris Andrews. Both have played a factor in his performance this season. Stenhouse on the other hand has had significantly more time with veteran crew chief Mike Kelley.
Being successful and having a long career at the Cup level isn’t just about performance though. Marketability is becoming ever more important in the era of tough to get sponsorship dollars. Bayne has a clear advantage over Stenhouse in this area. An emotional win in the famous #21 at the Daytona 500, the media opportunities that followed, and Bayne’s personality all contribute. Stenhouse isn’t as well known despite his success, and he isn’t anywhere near the fan favorite Bayne is. During driver introductions, Bayne’s cheers rival that of perennial most popular driver Dale Earnhardt Jr.
All things considered, I think it’s very difficult to say one driver has more potential than the other. They both have long, successful careers ahead of them. I’m curious though, if you were a team owner with one open Cup ride, who would you pick?
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