Before Daytona, I wrote a blog post with some random thoughts entering the season. In it, I made predictions about which drivers I thought would win each championship. I said Ron Hornaday would take the Truck title, Elliott Sadler would be your Nationwide champ, and Denny Hamlin would break through and win the Cup. Of the three choices, only Sadler still has a realistic shot. So much for predictions. Of the three choices, I really felt like Hamlin had the best chance, but 2011 has been anything but a dream season. And three races into the Chase, Hamlin is all but eliminated.
In my explanation for why I chose Hamlin, I said:
The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
Knowing what we know now, it would appear that maybe the opposite happened. It almost seems as though the disappointment of losing the 2010 title the way they did, and a slow start to 2011 might have ended Hamlin’s season before it started. Statistically, 2011 is the worst full season of Denny’s career. His average finish hasn’t been this low since 2005, when he only ran seven races.
Hamlin and his team have certainly been the victim of a lot of bad luck, and Joe Gibbs Racing struggled mightily with their engine program this season (so bad in fact, they are now working with TRD). But the poor luck and the lack of performance all seem to have affected Hamlin’s psyche. We found out this week that Denny has been seeing a sports psychologist. He hopes that having fun over the final races will lead to better results and some momentum for 2012.
Finishes of 31st, 29th, and 18th in the first three Chase races have effectively ended any hope of Hamlin and Co. contending for the championship. And one has to wonder if maybe Mike Ford’s job could be in jeopardy. Hamlin and JGR are certainly a strong enough combination to contend for championships, and the Coach and J.D. will do whatever is necessary to keep Hamlin up front. Hopefully Hamlin can quickly forget 2011 and start fresh for 2012.
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Joe Gibbs Racing didn’t have a particularly good weekend in Indianapolis. The teams finished 10th, 25th and 27th. Adding to the weekend woes was what has become a very common problem for JGR – an expired engine; this time for Denny Hamlin.
This ongoing issue comes as rumors about the future of JGR’s engine program swirl. We’ve heard in recent months that there have been layoffs within JGR’s engine department and J.D. Gibbs said this weekend, after earlier denying it, that a collaboration with Toyota Racing Development is possible.
The team has struggled the last couple of seasons with sour engines. There have been nine expired engines so far this season prior to races. In the last two seasons, bad engines have cost the team five DNFs. Those aren’t numbers to be proud of.
Despite the issues, the team has had success with their engine program. Since switching to Toyota in 2008 they’ve racked up 34 wins. That means, in three and half seasons a JGR team wins one in every four races. Those ARE numbers to be proud of.
The same can’t be said for TRD’s engine program. Since entering the sport in 2007 they have just three wins – and of those three only one wasn’t decided by weather or fuel mileage.
The difference between the two programs is stunning. While one has flourished, the other has languished. While one has found success and competed for championships, the other hasn’t done much. Still, the TRD engines haven’t had nearly as much trouble as the Gibbs engines.
The serious issues with reliability are taking their toll on the team – things can’t continue like this if JGR hopes to compete for championships and regularly compete for wins.
I’m certain this is a top priority for Gibbs. And obviously, Gibbs’ head engine builder Mark Cronquist – a NASCAR and JGR veteran – would likely be part of any collaboration with TRD. One can also suspect much of the talent and knowledge that has made JGR such a powerhouse would make the move, but is this what’s best?
The team needs to get its house in order and soon. While Hamlin remains on the cusp of a Chase run and Logano is far out, Kyle Busch is likely to sit near the top of the standings when the points reset in a few weeks. If there’s any hope of converting the team’s success up to this point to a seat at the head table in Las Vegas, reliability has to be improved.
I didn’t have one idea that I wanted to focus on with my last blog post before the 2011 season gets under way this week, so instead I’ve got a bunch of mini topics to touch on. Feel free to comment on any or all of them.
New Points System I’ve been asked by a few people what my opinion is of the new points system NASCAR has instituted for this season, and I’ve got to say, I don’t really care. It seems on initial inspection that it isn’t a ton different then the old system, and I really don’t believe it will change the way teams race. Teams will still try like hell to win races, and when they can’t, they will do whatever is necessary to get the best possible finish they can. You will also still see teams try and get their race cars back on track after a wreck in order to ride around and get as many points as they can. The mindset won’t change. So I guess if the new system makes things easier for the fans, cool, but other than that, I don’t care.
Final Pit Procedure Thoughts We’ve talked quite a bit around here about the new pit road procedures with the elimination of the catch can position, but I just wanted to offer a few final points. I encourage you to really pay attention to pit stops at Daytona, because you will definitely see some differing techniques among the teams. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it appears as though one or two teams use a system that works better than the others, and for the other teams to follow suit shortly. It will be kind of a “monkey see, monkey do” situation once the teams get a chance to scout each other. These changes will also have a significant impact on pit strategy and what adjustments will get made. It’s a whole new ball game for crew chiefs and engineers now, and I think there is a much larger emphasis now on the decisions they make during the races. You will see a lot more races decided based on pit strategies – at least in the short run.
Important Season For Many Drivers, Teams, and Sponsors There are quite a few drivers and sponsors this season that have contracts that will be expiring after Homestead in November. Lee Spencer from FoxSports.com recently had a bit up about all the Cup drivers who are in the final year of their contracts in 2011 (see it here). This really could be a year that we look back on and say that this was the year that made or broke driver X or team Y. There will be a lot of pressure on those drivers and teams to put in solid performances every week in order to help secure their futures. With the economy continuing to a be a big factor with sponsorships, these teams don’t want to give these companies any reason to either switch to another race team, or pull out completely. It will certainly be an interesting story line to watch.
Nationwide Series Changes I’m really curious to see how the 2011 season unfolds for the Nationwide Series after the championship eligibility changes were made. Will it really help bring the series back to being a developmental series, or will the Cup drivers continue to dominate regardless? We haven’t had a solid Cup rookie class in a couple of years, and the deterioration of the Nationwide Series has certainly played a part in that. In order to keep the talent coffers full of new young drivers, it’s vital that the NNS get back to being a place where these kids can learn how to race.
Championship Predictions We don’t normally do a ton of predictions around here, because they are mostly useless, and it’s pretty much impossible to get them right. But with that said, I’m going to give you my picks on who I think will win each of the top three championships. In the Truck Series, I believe the addition of Jeff Hensley to KHI will pay off big and Ron H0rnaday will return to dominance. Hornaday ran really well last season, but just had a lot of bad luck. Expect that to change for 2011. For the Nationwide Series, I think the pick has to be Elliott Sadler. The Joe Gibbs Toyotas are pretty much unstoppable, but since neither Joey Logano nor Kyle Busch can win the championship, the balance shifts towards KHI. Sadler has the talent and will have the equipment to be a contender every week, and I don’t see any of the younger drivers putting it together for 34 races. And finally, the 2011 Cup Series champion will be Denny Hamlin. The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
The off season has ended, and teams will head to Daytona this week. The next time you hear from me, we’ll have our first race winner (even if it is an exhibition race), and the front row will be set for the Daytona 500. Welcome to 2011!
With all the hype leading into this final race we certainly had an exciting finish. Who wasn’t on edge after Denny Hamlin spun, Jimmie Johnson’s crew (continually) screwed up, and Kevin Harvick got caught speeding on pit road? I was on the edge of my seat until the final laps.
And so after 36 races and thousands of miles we have our 2010 champion – the same champion we had in 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006. This is an accomplishment Jimmie Johnson and his crew should be proud of and something we all should be celebrating. But I suspect most of us aren’t.
The fact is, despite the hype, that end was kind of deflating.
I struggled after the race to find a way to think about this positively. It really is an extraordinary thing. But the truth is, I wasn’t really all that excited about it. The only thing I could think was, “NASCAR and ESPN thought the ratings were bad this season.”
I can’t tell you, over the past two and half years, how many people have e-mailed or commented at their waning interest in the sport over the #48′s dominance. I fear this will only make that worse. And I can’t really blame people – I’m getting bored. I say this too feeling bad for thinking Jimmie’s success is hurting the sport, but I honestly believe it is.
While they would never admit it, I think the folks at NASCAR see it too. The changes to the points that they’re considering have got to be, to some extent, as a result of what he’s been able to do – and even with today, we had a different path, but the exact same result.
I write this with no ill will toward Jimmie Johnson. I think Jimmie is a great guy and I think he and the #48 team are to be commended for all of their success. But this isn’t good for this sport. That said, I’m just not sure there is anything NASCAR or Jimmie’s fellow competitors can do about it.
With that, we’ll be off for the next week taking a little vacation (we’ll be moderating comments though). Check back next Monday for a new TNI post and our off-season schedule. We hope you all have safe and happy Thanksgiving!
Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Chase for the Sprint Cup, NASCAR
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Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Chase for the Sprint Cup, Sprint Cup, NASCAR
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Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Chase for the Sprint Cup, NASCAR
Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Chase for the Sprint Cup, Crew Chiefs, Sprint Cup, NASCAR