Sunday’s Cup Series race at Dover was the perfect example of good strategy overcoming speed and handling shortcomings. Matt Kenseth did not have the best race car over the course of the race, but the right call by his crew chief at the right moment put him in position to win. And Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are left wondering “what if.”
When the cars come to pit road following a shorter than normal run, crew guys know that anything is possible. Crew chiefs can call for anything from four tires, to fuel only. And often times you won’t get more than a few seconds warning. The crew chief will start counting the driver into the stall, and then make a last minute audible. For many teams on Sunday, that’s exactly what happened. Guys like Johnson, Edwards, and Clint Bowyer who had been the cars to beat all day, were neutralized by two tire stops.
Besides the winning Kenseth, good pit strategy was the key to good finishes for Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, and Brian Vickers. Martin stayed out, and Ambrose and Vickers both got two tires.
Along with the late race pit strategy, another surprising element of Sunday’s race was the lack of cautions. Dover isn’t referred to as the “Monster Mile” for nothing, but there were shockingly few on track incidents. Compared to both the CWTS and NNS races the previous two days, the Cup race was tame. Especially on a day when track conditions were treacherous (see track rubber issues).
Finally, I was really disappointed to see how sparsely attended the weekend’s races were. I know a constant threat of rain probably turned off some fans, but to see entire sections of grandstands completely devoid of spectators was sad. Dover always puts on great shows, and there are plenty of largely populated areas nearby to draw from. Hopefully TV ratings were up.
Now it’s your turn. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts on the weekend’s action. I heard a late race move by FOX to show commercials in a split screen was quite the hit…
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Matt Kenseth Wins at Dover
Jimmie Johnson took the green flag to start the race and led for the first series of green flag runs. First ten laps we had 2 or 3 cars loose and hit the wall including Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers. The sun came out on lap 14 and took everyone by surprise, Lets hope it holds up for the whole race. Some rain is expected in the area about an hour into the race so the sun is a welcomed surprise.
Caution out for Joey Logano as he spins in turn 2 around lap 20. Most of the leaders didn’t pit as there will be a competition caution near lap 40. Jimmie Johnson has led every lap so far and he chooses the outside line for the restart on lap 25. Johnson pulls away from everyone. Carl Edwards is up to 3rd and he looks like he has a good car today. Kyle Busch is up 19 spots as he dropped to the back for an engine change.
Jimmie has over a one second lead and Carl Edwards is up to second, Harvick is third. Mike Skinner has parked his car and is the only car of track. Joey Logano is a lap down. Lap 40 and Jimmie Johnson is catching lapped traffic. Caution is out for competition caution at the completion of lap 40.Leaders are all coming to pit road.
Carl Edwards beats out Johnson from the pits and takes the lead. Some cars only took 2 tires it will be interesting to see how that makes out. Jimmie Johnson takes over the lead again and once again pulls away. Greg Biffle having issues and drops back to 40th.
AJ Allemdinger is running second and Carl Edwards is back to third. AJ seems to have a good car today as he has been near the top 5 so far. So far the Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch issue has been a non factor with Kyle fighting a bad car that is plowing in the 13th position and Kevin is running 4th as we approach lap 60.
Leaders are still the same as we approach lap 100 and it looks like a long green run is here. They just showed a weather radar of the area and it looks like storms are east and west of the track. So far Johnson has led all laps except for a few where some cars stayed out during the competition caution. There are 24 cars on the lead lap as Jimmie Johnson just put Ryan Newman a lap down. Green flag pit stops are under way with Montoya leading the way on lap 107.
Leader pits on lap 108 and David Ragan spins at the entrance of pit road and has blocked Jamie Mcmurray and Tony Stewart from coming down pit road clean. No caution as he gets back underway. Lap 110 brings a lot of the rest of the cars to pit road, looks like it will cycle through quickly. Jimmie Johnson back in the lead.
Approaching lap 130 and Jimmie Johnson is out in front by a second as the guys behind him are racing each other and helping the #48 pull away. Tony Stewart is having a bad day and is now 3 laps down. Lap 144 we have a new leader as Carl Edwards is the new leader with only 19 cars on the lead lap.
Track conditions are making the cars very slick and handling is going away. This was the main reason for Jimmie dropping back. Dale Earnhardt Jr has hit the wall but continues on. You can see that the track is starting to take rubber in one of the turns causing everyone to slide through the turn.
Another long green flag run but I think some guys are gonna come down early to work on their cars. Aj Almendinger seems to have blown his engine and is dropping back. Caution is out for rain at lap 163. Rain drops are all over the windshields and they had to throw a caution.
Carl Edwards is leader, Jimmie Johnson second and everyone is pitting. Kurt Busch has been in the wall again, they are having some bad luck. Jimmie Johnson beats Carl Edwards off pit road. Aj Allmendinger stayed out to lead a lap since he has a blown valve and probably won’t be racing much longer. Denny Hamlin to fast on pit road and will have to do a drive by penalty. Aj Allendinger heads to the garage.
Lap 170 puts us back under green and Jimmie Johnson once again gets a great start. He was told under caution that his tires looked great when they came off the car. Handling issue is just the rubber on the track making things slick. Kevin Harvick is 7th and Kyle Busch in 9th so that may be something to keep an eye on. Mark Martin has been in the top 10 since taking only two tires on the first stop to gain track positions.
Marcos Ambrose is up to second and his car looks good but Carl Edwards is right on his bumper. Marcos got loose and Carl passed him on lap 183. Martin Truex is having a good day and has been in the top 10 all day. He is up to 4th position as he passes Matt Kenseth. Carl Edwards takes the lead as Jimmie goes high in the corner. We have hit the halway point and it looks like the sun has come out again and rain will not be a factor anytime soon.
Kyle Busch got a bump from Jeff Gordon and pushed him out of the grove and he almost hit the wall. Jeff is 12th Kyle is 14th on lap 206. Harvick is reporting a vibration, probably blaming Kyle for it. There are only about 18 cars on the lead lap. Caution is out for debris on lap 217. All the leaders are on pit road and Carl Edwards gets out in from followed by Marcos Abrose, Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie dropped 2 spots on pit road as they made an adjustment.
So far we have had 8 leaders, with most of them coming during pit stops. 18 cars on lead lap so far. Kasey Kahne is up to third and Johnson is catching Carl Edwards who is the leader for now. 150 laps to go and Carl Edwards is catching lap traffic as he pulls away again. It seems like whoever is in the lead they get a 1 second lead. Leaders are still the same Edwards, Johnson,Kahne and Bowyer. We seem to be into another long green run and the sun is still out making the track slicker.
Lap 262 and its still Carl Edwards who has led 97 laps and Jimmie has led 160 of the laps so far. It has been these two cars all day and at this point I see no one challenging them for the win. Carl has a 2 second lead over Jimmie and he has a 2 second lead over Clint Bowyer. Dale Jr is up to 8th and seems to have his car working better. Tony Stewart is very loose and not having a good day. His teammate Ryan Newman is doing the same thing. Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch are trading paint. Jeff bumped Kyle early in the race and it looks like Kyle just returned the favor.
Green flags stops should be coming soon. The tire wear has been minimal but the rubber on the track has cars taking the turn higher for grip. David Reutimann is the first car to take to the pits. Rest of the leaders should be on pit road soon. Lap 284 brings the leaders to pit road, small adjustment for him as he likes his car. Juan Pablo takes the lead but he has not pitted yet. Johnson is ahead of Edwards as they spent extra time making sure Carl got all his fuel in. Johnson passes Montoya on the track to take the lead. Andy Lally spins coming to pit road but no caution.
100 laps to go and Johnson is in the lead Edward second followed by some Richard Childress cars, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick. There are 19 cars on the lead lap but Johnson is quickly catching last weeks winner Regan Smith.
Carl Edwards was passed by Clint Bowyer and then the two traded paint and Clint was knocked out of the grove. Jimmie is in the lead with 75 to go and green flag stops are expected with about 50 laps to go. Jimmie and Carl are battling again for the lead but Jimmies car is running better in the high grove. They are coming up on slower cars of Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski. Caution out for Kasey Kahne as he has a tire go down. Kasey was running in 8th at the time. Pit road is open.
Clint Bowyer wins the race off pit road with Carl and Jimmie right behind. The TV broadcasters are saying the cars can make it from here but I am not so sure with 63 to go. Clint Bowyer takes the green and quickly jumps out to the lead. Paul Menard brushes Montoya and has a tire go down but makes it to pit road. Kyle Busch is 6th and Harvick is 7th. %0 laps to go its Bowyer, Edwards,Johnson, Kenseth and Jeff Burton.
Caution out for Juan Pablo Montoya spinning right in front of the leaders on lap 362. 6 cars only took 2 tires and Mark Martin did not pit. This should be interesting restart. I don’t think Mark can make it on fuel. Clint Bowyer is in 8th Edwards is 9th and Johnson is 11th. This race is anyone’s at this point. Kyle Busch making good time on four fresh tires. Mark Martin on old tires is hanging on for second with 25 to go. Looks like the right call if he can make it on fuel. 7 laps to go and Matt Kenseth still in the lead and not much has changed in the front. Mark Martin still holding to second. Logano hit the wall but made it to pit road without a caution. Looks like maybe Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson should have stayed out on the last caution.
Matt Kenseth wins Mark Martin second. Lots of second guessing going on after this race.
Matt Kenseth Wins at Dover is a post from: Awesome Race Fans
Awesome Race Fans - By Awesome Race Fans for Awesome Race Fans
If you watched the Sprint Cup race at Dover two weeks ago, you caught a glimpse of what might be the future for AJ Allmendinger. And if he continues to run like he did, that future looks very bright.
It’s been an up and down ride for Allmendinger through his short career. From getting the opportunity to come to NASCAR with Red Bull Racing, to getting booted for another unproven open wheeler (Scott Speed), and then getting a rare second shot in the Cup Series with Richard Petty Motorsports. And now this season, Allmendinger appears that he has made strides and could be right on the edge of becoming a contender on a weekly basis.
Allmendinger, currently in his fourth year in the Cup Series, has had his best season to date. He’s improved in every statistical category including points position (19th), laps led (176), and average finish (17.8). He’s picked up one top five and seven top ten finishes this season, and earned his first career pole at the spring Phoenix race. And in his last four starts, Allmendinger has four top 12 finishes.
At Dover, Allmendinger qualified second, and led 143 laps before a cut tire killed his chances to win. Before the tire problem though, Allmendinger had built up a several second lead and appeared to be the class of the field. Even with having to pit under green, and losing a lap, ‘Dinger still fought back to finish 10th.
If the proverbial light has come on for Allmendinger, it couldn’t be coming at a better time. It was announced only a matter of weeks ago that he would be returning to RPM for the 2011 season as the driver of the famous #43. And with the departure of Kasey Kahne, ‘Dinger now becomes the main guy for Petty and the Gilletts. He will be tasked with helping to not only revive RPM, but also bring the #43 back to prominence.
Allmendinger has proven over the course of his career that he can win, and I believe it’s only a matter of time before he and his team break through. A strong run to the finish of the 2010 season could well give this team the momentum they need to propel them to contending for wins regularly in 2011. I wouldn’t even be surprised if this team was in the Chase discussion come next summer.
It’s a bit of a weekend off for teams, as even though we will be at the track this week for the All Star and Truck races, at least we get to sleep in our own beds. If you are in Charlotte for the races, don’t forget that the Pit Crew Challenge is tonight at Time Warner Cable Arena in Uptown Charlotte! Before it kicks off though, here is the 75th edition of ATIW to help you get through your hump day. If you don’t know what this post is, we answer any and all reader questions every Wednesday, right here. So if you’ve got one, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send one to us. On to the questions…
1. From Ron:
Excellent site. Withthe new spoiler package they are controlled and dispensed at each event by NASCAR. How is it that some cars have their’s color matched if they are distributed randomly? I would think the teams wouldn’t know what spoiler[s] they would get each race.
Unlike the now extinct wing, NASCAR does not issue the spoilers to the teams. They are put on at the shop and then teched when they get to the track, just like they used to be. That’s why some teams have color matched pieces. - T.C.
2. From Jerry:
Guys what happens if Brian Vickers car owners points make the chase but his own drivers points don’t. Are Chase births given to the car or the driver.
Great question! There are actually two Chases. One for the driver championship and one for the owner championship. It’s no different then when Carl Edwards won the Nationwide Series driver championship in 2007, while RCR took home the owner championship. We don’t often see another driver run a car that is so high in points, so to this point, it hasn’t been an issue. - T.C.
3. From Kim:
This may be the silliest question you’ve gotten, but when a driver like Casey Mears subs for different drivers, what firesuit do they wear? Do they quickly doctor up a suit with the appropriate sponsor logos?
There are no silly questions here. Casey actually wore a generic firesuit at Dover. I would imagine if he continues to drive the #83 that he would have a Red Bull firesuit going forward. It really depends on how much time the team has. If they have some advance warning, they can get a firesuit ready. If not, the sub driver either has to wear one of their own, or hope they fit into one of the current driver’s suits. – T.C.
4. From Christopher:
At Darlington, Jeff Burton was penalized for running over the air hose. I’m curious- what is the rationale behind this type of penalty? I understand speeding on pit road- it’s a safety issue with other drivers, and it gives you an unfair advantage. But driving over a hose doesn’t give you any advantage, and can only really hurt yourself.
Running over an air hose is a definitely a safety concern. The combination of an impact and the hose getting kicked up by the tires can be very dangerous. If an impact were to hit someone, it could do some serious damage, and the air hose is connected to a Nitrogen bottle that has 2,500 lbs of pressure in it. – T.C.
5. From Kyle:
What do you know about the ownership situation at Red Bull Racing? There are rumors the company wants to move into a sponsorship only role. Any idea what team the sponsorship would go to if this were to happen?
The team is wholly owned by Red Bull owner (or perhaps more accurate, majority stakeholder) Deitrich Mateschitz (just like the Red Bull F1 team). So short of Red Bull deciding, without Mateschitz, that they no longer want to be in the NASCAR sponsorship business, it’s not too likely. Though I suppose if you looked at it from it’s purest form Red Bull really is just a sponsor now (albeit a very large one). – Journo
6. From Christopher:
When people talk about start-and-parkers, they often complain that they’re keeping better (serious) drivers off the track. If money and sponsorship were no issue, which drivers could be competing well in the Sprint Cup?
That’s a good question (it’s not something I necessarily buy into). Start-and-parkers are filling a void. Certainly there are exceptions every now and then but in the absence of the start and park teams we would likely have less than full fields. If money and sponsorship were no issue? That’s tough and I’m no driver development expert – this is something even the best driver development people have failed at (ex. Reed Sorenson, Casey Mears). Sorry. – Journo
7. From Allen:
Who makes the call to hand down penalties or park a car in the middle of a race? Brian France? Mike Helton?
Those calls generally come from the series director – Wayne Auton in the Truck Series, Joe Balash in the Nationwide Series and John Darby in the Cup Series. When drivers get to the trailer though, they sometimes get to meet with both the Series Director and Mr. Helton. – Journo
8. From yankeegranny:
Ok, what’s the story; was there a steering problem with the 88 at Dover, or not? If there was, what was it, and if there wasn’t has my fav driver become delusional? Seriously, what could be wrong with the car to make a driver say he had to turn the wheel 90 degrees to the left to get it go straight on a straightaway? Did he hit something/someone early in the race to knock something loose?
It is my understanding that there was, in fact, no problem at all. The marbles at Dover can be pretty bad, and if a driver picks them up on his tires, he can think all manner of things are wrong. It is not uncommon for drivers to think they have a flat tire or some mechanical issue. That’s why you see drivers swerving back and forth under caution to clean their tires. Dale Jr. isn’t crazy, and he wasn’t the only victim of the marbles this weekend. It’s just another example of the horrible luck and circumstances that continue to keep this team down. – T.C.
9. From Sann:
With all the drivers that get right front flats and smack the wall, would it be possible to run a liner in just that tire to prevent hitting the wall?
At Dover, Goodyear runs inner liners in all of the tires. When a tire blows out though, there isn’t much that is going to stop a car from heading straight for the wall, inner liner or not. The inner liner may make the hit not hurt so bad, but it’s inevitable. – T.C.
10. From yankeegranny:
In this age of mega teams with mega bucks, simulators, windtunnels, and 7-post whatever they ares, how can a team unload a car that misses the needed race setup completely. Some cars seem to be pure garbage from the time they come off the truck and nothing seems to improve them. On whose shoulders do we lay the blame..somehow it seems that this is one that we can’t blame on the driver?
Well it depends what team/s you’re talking about. Lesser funded teams don’t have the resources to spend a lot of time at the wind tunnel or at the 7-post – many of those teams are also running sub-par and used engines. When you see these teams run like garbage it’s often because their using sub-par equipment (having Chad Knaus on the box and Jimmie Johnson in the car wouldn’t do them any good). In the case of well funded teams you can blame the driver and/or the crew chief for missing the mark. Something to consider too is changing conditions. If a team practices in sunny/hot conditions and they race in cold/cloudy conditions their setup is going to get messed up. – Journo
11. From Walt:
When a driver says that they are tight or pushing in one corner and then tight or pushing in the next corner how can you adjust for both corners?
Usually, just adjusting for the overall tight condition will help in both corners. At a place like Darlington, where 1 and 2 are different then 3 and 4, a happy medium has to be found. It’s very difficult to make the car run well through both sets of corners. – T.C.
And that brings yet another “Ask The Insiders Wednesday” to a close. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions. And remember, if you’d like to be a part of next week, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send your question in!
As we watched Marcos Ambrose blow a second tire and hit the wall on Sunday at Dover, I couldn’t help but feel sorry for the guy. After a very strong rookie campaign in 2009 that saw him finish 19th in the points standings on the strength of four top five and seven top ten finishes, 2010 has been difficult at best. Ambrose and his #47 JTG Daugherty team only had two DNFs all last season, and they already have four through twelve races. A difficult first third of his sophomore season isn’t exactly what the Australian had in mind.
Much of the trouble for Ambrose this season has been just plain bad luck. At Daytona, he blew an engine 21 laps before halfway. He then had to retire a week later at California after only 170 of 250 laps because of an overheating problem. Wrong place, wrong time wrecks at Bristol and Talladega continued the stretch of bad luck. And handling and engine issues at Darlington, followed by two blown tires at Dover on Sunday only added to the struggles.
It hasn’t been all bad though. Besides their good runs in 2009, four top eleven finishes this season at Atlanta, Martinsville, Phoenix, and Richmond have shown this team can compete. Ambrose certainly has the talent and with support from Michael Waltrip Racing, JTG Daugherty has the necessary equipment and resources. Now the Frank Kerr led team just needs to find a little luck.
Their may be relief on the horizon though. The upcoming schedule has stops that favor Ambrose. Races at Pocono and Sonoma, where he ran well last season should help, and the small successes he’s had this season should bode well for Charlotte and Loudon. A little luck at Michigan and Daytona would also go a long way in helping this team dig out of 28th place in the standings.
The sophomore slump, whether real or imagined, seems to affect many young drivers. It’s difficult to point to a reason why it happens, but it might be as simple as raised expectations cause the driver to push too hard at times. What’s good for Ambrose though, is while he may be in only his second full Cup season, he is not an inexperienced racer. A solid career in Australian V8 Supercars, followed by plenty of seat time in the Truck and Nationwide Series should aide him in dealing with the adversity.
It’s anybody’s guess when Ambrose’s bad luck will finally end, but make no mistake, Ambrose is a contender. There is no reason why he couldn’t be a first time Sprint Cup winner in 2010.
I’ve taken a little grief from the readers regarding my post from last week about Joey Logano needing a short memory after wrecking big at Dover. Some of you thought I was reading too much into his post wreck comments (to be honest, Journo thought I was too), and that you thought he would be fine. And now that Logano has raced, and won, I’ve had a few more folks call me out over the post.
I think it’s funny that I’m catching some flack over the post, because I never said Logano wasn’t going to get it done. I never even said I thought he was afraid, or that it was going to affect him. All I said was that it worried me that he admitted some fear, because fear will paralyze a driver. And I also said that he he was going to need a short memory and be able to move past it.
And guess what?
He did just that.
On Saturday in Kansas, Logano made a dramatic closing laps pass to get by his teammate Kyle Busch and score the Nationwide Series win. He didn’t fare as well on Sunday, finishing 28th in the Cup race, but he didn’t seem to show any ill effects from the tumble he took the week before. I even heard that he told reporters that the Dover crash made him more confident in the cars he is climbing into every week.
Moving forward, I think it’s big for Logano’s confidence that he was able to climb back into his car and prevail. He showed that he still has that fearless mindset that teams look for in young drivers, and the ability to bounce back from a little adversity. Chalk this one up as another learning experience for Logano in his rookie season.
Kudos to you Joey Logano.
While doing my usual internet trolling tonight, I came across Tom Bowles’ weekly “Did You Notice” piece over at The Frontstretch. In it, he talks about Joey Logano’s reaction to his wild wreck this past weekend at Dover. If you haven’t seen Logano’s wreck, click here. Bowles quotes Logano as saying:
“It just really scared the heck out of me. I’m not sure I want to see a replay. It started rolling and I was in there like, ‘Damn, please make this thing stop.’ And it wouldn’t. It just kept going and going. It just startled me.”
The main point made by Bowles is that drivers are losing some of the killer instinct made famous by some of the NASCAR greats. I see his point, but what immediately jumps out at me is his admitted fear. It worries me that Logano said it, and I’m interested to see if Logano lets this affect him down the road.
I wrote a post about a year ago about drivers and fear (see it here), and Logano’s comments brought me right back to it. If they want to have any level of success in racing, a driver has to be absolutely fearless. And on top of that, they need to have a short memory. Remembering a previous wreck while taking to the track will only slow a driver down.
Don’t know what I mean by fearless? How about Rusty Wallace’s horrible crash at Daytona in 1993. He tumbled countless times down the backstretch and ended up coming to rest in a destroyed race car. He followed that up by winning the next race at Rockingham, and then added nine more victories before that season ended. And all this was well before the introduction of the modern, safer COT.
When Logano hits the track this weekend in Kansas, he needs to have forgotten that Dover ever happened. His young career will be over very quickly if he harbors this fear of wrecking and holds back. I don’t want to name any drivers here, but too many have let a bad wreck ruin what was a promising career.
NASCAR is a dangerous sport. If a driver cannot handle that, and be able to wreck and keep digging, then he needs to find something else to do. Here’s to hoping Logano pulls a reverse Jimmy Spencer and forgets everything.
If you were watching Nationwide Series practice on Friday, you would have no doubt seen Matt DiBenedetto (Joe Gibbs Racing developmental driver) climb into Denny Hamlin’s #20 and help the team shake it down. DiBenedetto had just set a new track record in qualifying for the Camping World East Series race and Hamlin wanted to focus on his Cup car for the remainder of the afternoon. What was supposed to be some good track time for a young driver though, quickly turned into a nightmare for the 18 year old.
If you don’t know the name, this young driver from California has been running in the CWS this season for JGR and has two wins. He is scheduled to make his Nationwide Series debut in a few weeks at Memphis Motorsports Park in the #20 Toyota.
After only a few laps on Dover’s Monster Mile, DiBenedetto lost control of the JGR Camry out of turn two and and ended up in the wall down the backstretch. The team was forced to go to it’s backup car. DiBenedetto said he wasn’t used to using a smaller steering wheel (which Hamlin prefers) and the car got away from him.
While I’m certain that a wrecked race car wasn’t what the team was looking for out of the young driver, hopefully they turned it into a learning experience. Especially early on in a session, and climbing into a car that he wasn’t familiar with, he needed to start slow and build up to some decent lap times. Everyone knows he has talent, he didn’t need to go lay down blistering laps to prove it.
If he was driving my race car, I would definitely let him know that wrecking cars in practice isn’t acceptable, but also that he still had my full support. There will be plenty of other chances to show what he can do.
It’s good to see that some younger drivers are still getting a chance, even with the dwindling number of sponsor dollars available. But these owners need to remember that these guys are still young and mistakes will be made. Remaining patient through the process will pay dividends down the road.
Hey Matt, when you head to Memphis in a few weeks, forget Dover ever happened. Climb into the seat, get in a solid qualifying effort, and bring your car home in one piece. If you can do that consistently, Joe and JD Gibbs will make sure you get plenty of seat time in some of the best equipment in the sport.
Filed under: Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Chase for the Sprint Cup, Sprint Cup
Johnson Serves Title Notice at Dover originally appeared on Motorsports FanHouse on Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:02:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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With the Chase for the Sprint Cup in full swing headed to Dover, teams must bring their “A” game to the track every weekend to have a chance at the championship. The smallest mistake by a mechanic, or a slight misstep by a pit crew could cost their team everything. I was curious though just how good a team had to be over the final ten races to secure the championship, so I did a little research to find out (Racing-Reference.info is great).
A big story this week was Kasey Kahne’s blown engine at Loudon. Some suspected sabotage, but a broken crankshaft proved to be the culprit. Many have said this mechanical failure probably ended Kahne’s chances at the championship. But before you write him off, remember that Jimmie Johnson started off the 2006 Chase with a 39th at Loudon. But Johnson was able to win the Cup with a final six race stretch that included a win, four second place finishes, and a ninth at Homestead. Kahne and Co. are certainly capable of such a run, but with the inconsistency they’ve shown this year, fans have plenty of reason to worry.
The only other driver to have a finish outside the top 25 in the Chase and still win the championship was Kurt Busch in 2004. He finished 42nd at Atlanta, but powered to the Cup with eight top six finishes (including a win). In 2005, eventual winner Tony Stewart’s worst finish was 25th, while Johnson’s worst finishes in ‘07 and ‘08 were a 14th and a 15th respectively.
Since the Chase was introduced, the highest average finish for the champion came in that 2006 season with Johnson. He averaged a 10.8 over the final ten races. But Johnson needed an average finish of fifth in 2007, and an average of 5.7 in 2008 to win those titles.
Just by looking briefly over the statistics, it would appear that the competition for the Cup gets more difficult every year. While a team may be allowed one mulligan finish, odds are that one bad weekend could ruin their shot. Johnson’s worst finish last year was a 15th as I said above, and even with an average finish of 5.7, his margin over second place was a scant 69 points. Over ten races, that means earning 6.9 points more per race then the next guy, or finishing about two positions better on track.
How’s that for pressure?