I know Jimmie is leading the points. And I’m not going to say he doesn’t have a chance of winning a fifth championship – he absolutely does. The points race though is the closest we’ve seen after three races in the history of the Chase, and I think Jimmie has the toughest competition (in terms of number of participants) he’s ever had.
Over the last three races we’ve seen drivers make missteps, make amazing recoveries, and show the kind of consistency and success that wins championships. Still, no one looks that much better than anyone else. The common thread that binds the eleven Chasers capable of winning the Chase is that they all have a pretty good chance to win this thing.
On Sunday we saw the strength of a lot of teams. The Roush Chasers showed, despite struggles the last two seasons, they shouldn’t be counted out. At one point in the race the top four cars came from the Roush stables. And how about Hendrick? Despite struggling off and on through the season, Jimmie Johnson is making his charge to the front (so much for us naysayers!) and teammate Jeff Gordon continues to be a consistent competitor (though pushing to a win is still a struggle).
Though one of the RCR cars is (at the moment at least) probably out of contention, Jeff Burton and most especially Kevin Harvick are displaying the strength of their organization. Harvick moved himself into third this weekend and continued to show just how important consistency is. He has more top-fives and more top-tens than any other driver in the sport right now. Obviously wins would help Harvick bring Richard Childress his first Cup championship in 16 years, but one misstep from one his competitors might be all ‘Mr. Consistency’ Kevin Harvick needs.
And lest I forget the Gibbs cars and the two guys without any teammates in the Chase. While Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin continue to make big headlines off the track, their performances on track is what everyone should be keeping their eyes on. Hamlin is second in the points and Busch is seventh, but both could very easily make their way to the top of the heap. And the final two guys, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart, are the only other drivers to have won a championship in the Chase format. If anyone other than Jimmie Johnson knows how to win in this format, it’s these two.
I know from our discussion the other day, many of you are burnt out on the Championship talk, but how could you not be interested in this? It’s not quite the post-season in the NFL, MLB or NBA, but it’s shaping up to be an interesting fight. With the first 11 cars separated by only 149 points every little mistake is going to be amplified, and the wild card race at Talladega could seriously shake things up.
After years of looking for a close battle among a lot of cars, this year is delivering so far. We’ve still got seven races left, but this year may finally be the year we get that race in the Chase.
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It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final races of the season. In just more than two months we’ll be in Homestead to crown a champion for 2010. In the meantime we’ve got our Chase field set and 10 races to sort out the good from the great.
So far this season we’ve seen just how important consistency is in this points system (Kevin Harvick) and how bad luck can damage even the best teams (Jimmie Johnson). While we’ve had some convincing wins and some great performances, who exactly the strongest team is, is hard to say. The race for the championship is wide open for the first time in years, and there are 12 drivers now in a dogfight to become the next Sprint Cup Champion.
Denny Hamlin: Has all the makings of a champion. He’s the winningest driver so far this season, and when the #11 team is on, they’re on. The trouble they, and frankly all the Gibbs teams have had is consistency. Hamlin has two DNFs and five finishes of 30th or worse. His championship hopes are on his team at this point. The driver has proven he’s capable. The rest of the team now needs to figure out if they are.
Jimmie Johnson: The #48 team has been good this season – there’s no doubt about that. But they’ve struggled since the implementation of the spolier. Chad Knaus has been unable to keep up with track conditions some weekends, and other weekends, when they look like they’re on, they get hit by bad luck. Consistency was the thing that made this team so strong for so long and it just hasn’t been there. Johnson has four DNFs so far this season and nine races with finishes of 20th or worse. Just like Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson’s championship hopes rest heavily on his team – perhaps more importantly though are the things he cant control, like luck.
Kevin Harvick: Consistent is the one word to describe this team. In 26 races this season Harvick has won just three times, but built a commanding lead in the points. His average finish of 9.8 is the best of his career, and if the team can maintain it, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Though the team has been good just about every weekend, they’re not always in a position to win. Because of this, Harvick’s championship hopes hinge on the consistency of his competitors over the next 10 races. If everyone runs like they have all season, Harvick could very well give Richard Childress his first Cup championship since 1994.
Kyle Busch: Though he hasn’t had as many wins, Busch has been more consistent than his teammate Denny Hamlin. For that reason he might just be in a better position to win the championship. As I’ve said here before, whether you like him or not, it’s hard not to admit Kyle’s talents as a driver. That said he’s been plagued through his short career by a lack of maturity and focus. He’s definitely calmed down a lot this season, but with a truck team and his Nationwide efforts also on his mind does he consistently have what it takes to win on Sunday? Kyle Busch will be likely be a Cup Champion in the not too distant future, whether that could be this season remains to be seen.
The Roush Cars: Forgive me for grouping these guys together, but they all have the same problem – an inability to overcome the performance hump. Ford has struggled all year with the switchover to the FR9 and the Roush drivers just haven’t been as competitive as they should be. Greg Biffle is the last Ford driver to win a race back in Pocono. Before that it was Matt Kenseth last February at California. And Carl Edwards hasn’t seen victory lane since Homestead 2008. All of these guys are good enough to win championships – I’m just not sure the teams are there performance wise.
Kurt Busch: Just like many of his fellow Chasers, consistency, or lack thereof, has plagued Kurt Busch. It’s hard to believe Roger Penske doesn’t have a Cup championship. He’s certainly had drivers with the talent to do it, and teams formidable enough to compete, but it just hasn’t happened. Since becoming the lone Dodge team Penske, the organization, looks good. Kurt Busch could deliver “The Captain” his first Cup Series championship, I just don’t know if this will be the year.
Tony Stewart: This isn’t 2009 – and Tony Stewart knows it. He has hustled for every good finish he’s had this season. Though they struggled after the implementation of the spoiler, Stewart’s team looks to be back on track as of late. Since Dover he’s had 11 top-ten finishes, five top-five finishes, two second place finishes and one win. While he’s going to need to run a little bit better – as in more wins – Tony Stewart may be hitting his stride at the right time.
Jeff Gordon: Speaking of overcoming the hump. I feel bad for this team. They’re good year in and year out, but Jeff Gordon hasn’t won a race since April of 2009. Before that it was October of 2007. This season Gordon has 10 top-five finishes but no wins to speak of. He’s certainly got what it takes, but this team needs to find that little bit extra to make them a serious contender. Jeff Gordon can be a five time champion, but some things are going to have to improve.
The other two Childress Cars: Consistent but not Championship great – at least so far this season. Both Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer are consistent performers for RCR, but they, like Gordon, just haven’t been able to close the deal. Burton has been in position a couple of times this season only to lose it because of mistakes. Bowyer, like Burton, hasn’t had a win since 2008 and is probably going to need to be a little stronger to truly compete. If these two are going to go head-to-head with Kevin Harvick they’re going to need to find some speed, and fast. They’re capable, but I have my doubts.
Thanks to another Monday race, we’ve got a short week before we head to Talladega. The ARCA cars will take to the 2.66 mile tri-oval on Friday, with the Nationwide Series and Cup Series headlining the weekend. While the teams make last minute preparations, we’ve got more questions and answers for you. If you don’t know what this post is, we answer any and all reader questions every Wednesday, right here. So if you’ve got one, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send one to us. On to the questions…
1. From Allen:
What do you think of Kasey Kahne moving to Hendrick in 2012 and what do you predict his plans will be for 2011?
We’ll see. Hendrick’s driver performance is pretty hit and miss. Remember Casey Mears and Brian Vickers’ stints with the team? And when was the last time Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won a race? Check this out, it’s an interesting look at driver performance at Hendrick. He is certainly better positioned now, but there are a lot of factors in play. And if I had to bet, I’d put my money on Stewart-Haas for 2011. – Journo
2. From Paul:
I just read an ‘ask’ question about gear ratios. For ‘Dega and Daytona, why not mandate a gear to keep the speeds down and get rid of the restrictor?
NASCAR actually does have a gear rule at the restrictor plate tracks, to go along with the plate. I think though, that having just a mandated gear would result in the same kind of racing we have now. Everyone would be in a giant pack and passes would be based on aero and momentum. - T.C.
3. From Ike:
What is the fastest anyone has ever gone in the history of NASCAR?
The fastest official, recorded average speed is Bill Elliott’s 1987 qualifying run at Talladega – he went 212 mph. Rusty Wallace went out a few years ago and ran a car in the neighborhood of 230 (top speed) with averages around 220. It wasn’t official though. – Journo
4. From Loren:
They say the new rear deck fin length is adjustable. Can it be adjusted during a race or is the length determined before hand and then can’t be changed?
I’m not 100% sure on this one. I know that NASCAR allows a variance in how long the fin can be, but I don’t know if they’d allow a change to it during the race. If a team did decide to make a change, it would be a very lengthy one to make, as it would require either cutting or replacing the existing setup. – T.C.
5. From Allen:
I’ve noticed this since Daytona, but I’m sure it’s been going on longer: How come the cars do not have the “Official NASCAR Stock Car” logo already on the car when unloaded. I noticed a few weeks ago at Atlanta one car didn’t have it on Friday, but come Sunday it was there. I thought it was painted on, just a sticker?
That sticker is placed on the car after teams successfully make it through the inspection process. Those are NASCAR’s to put on the cars. – Journo
6. From Grover:
During a impound race, what are the teams allowed to change? I assume it is small stuff, tire pressure, tape on the nose, carb jetting, and topping off fluid levels.
It’s pretty much just tire pressure, grill tape, and wedge/trackbar adjustments. Other then those three, there is very little else that NASCAR will allow the teams to mess with. Any carb adjustments and fluid additions would have to be done pre-impound. NASCAR will sometimes make exceptions, but any adjustments have to be approved by NASCAR. – T.C.
7. From Clay:
I was listening to Dave Rogers (Kyle Busch’s Cup Crew Chief I believe) on Sirius Nascar Radio and he was saying that the reason they went with 4 tires at the end of the Phoenix race is that they scanned the other team radios and heard that Chad Knaus was also going with 4 tires. This got me thinking, why don’t the crew chiefs use code names for their pit stops so the competition won’t know who’s doing what on the next pit stop?
It’s unnecessary. Crew chiefs do listen in to other crew chiefs during the race, but the information that gets spewed on the radio isn’t always accurate. If a crew chief wanted to be discreet, it would be as simple as hopping off the box and telling his guys what the stop was going to be. The spotter plays a big role in this too, because he can see what other team’s stops are and pass that information along. – Journo
8. From Paul:
Ok, settle a bet for me. If a driver only completes 250 laps of a 500 lap race but is still running at the end, did he finish the race or only finish half of the race?
If I understand you correctly, it won’t mean that he gets a DNF. He will be shown as finishing the race. He’ll be scored 250 laps down, but he’ll finish. Hope that helps! – Journo
9. From Lost In Texas:
Is it my imagination or does it seem that the Monday races run smoother with less cautions. Is it because everyone just wants to get it over with or what?
It’s your imagination. Monday’s race at Texas actually had more cautions and more caution laps than the previous four races at Texas. And the Martinsville race earlier in the year was right in line with the recent races there. – T.C.
And that brings yet another “Ask The Insiders Wednesday” to a close. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions. And remember, if you’d like to be a part of next week, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send your question in!
They don’t get any TV time and you have probably never heard most of their names, but a position within the race teams that continues to gain in importance is the pit crew coach. Many teams have full time coaches, while others have part time or contract coaches. But no matter the level of employment, these guys can really help set a team apart from the competition.
Since they don’t get much coverage, I will throw a few names at you of coaches at the bigger teams: Richard Childress Racing has Matt Clark; Mike Lepp coaches at Joe Gibbs Racing; Greg Morin, Mark Mauldin, and Walt Smith lead the Hendrick crews; Eric Wilson and Andy Ward lead the Petty/Roush conglomerate; Greg Miller is at Michael Waltrip Racing; Lance Munksgard coaches Red Bull; and Trent Cherry coaches at Penske.
During the week, coaches spend their time breaking down the film of the pit stops from the previous weekend and running practices. Some will also work with their pit crews in the gym, leading workouts and training sessions. At the race track, (if they don’t go over the wall themselves) they will be looking over the tape of recent pit stops and helping with advice or small adjustments during the race.
Coming up in your career, you encounter all different types of coaches. And just like any other sport, some coaches are really good, and some are not. Many come from athletic training backgrounds, while others are ex-changers, carriers, and/or jackmen.
As is the case in most sports, you learn to absorb as much as you can from the really good coaches, and try really hard to not let a bad coach screw you up completely. The good coaches are the guys that can watch just a few stops and be able to see the small things that either make you good or hold you back. They know when to step in with some coaching, and when to say nothing. The bad coaches are just the opposite. They could watch pit stops for days and never be able to tell you definitively what you are doing right or wrong. All these guys are good for, is holding the stop watch.
Coaches do have a tough job, because they are often the first person a crew chief or manager searches out when a stop goes wrong. They have to be able to take the flak from an angry crew chief and translate that into advice or adjustments that will help the crew be better. And like I said earlier, some are better with this stuff than others.
For me personally, it can be very difficult to listen to a coach who has never been over the wall (trust me, some haven’t). Racing is such a different sport, that the coaching means a lot more coming from a guy who knows what it’s like to step off the wall during a green flag stop, while your driver is leading. I’m not saying actual race experience is essential, because some coaches are good at what they do even without that knowledge, but it certainly helps.
As the Cup and Nationwide cars head to Bristol this weekend, I would encourage you to really watch the pit stops during the races. Bristol’s pit road can get interesting, because of the setup and small pit stalls, and pit stops will be very important to success at Thunder Valley. When your favorite driver’s team busts off a 12.60 stop and sends him out in the lead, don’t forget about the pit crew coach who helped them do it.
Following Sunday’s race in Atlanta the Cup Series will enter its first off week of the season. While there won’t be any racing, teams will still be hard at work preparing for the impending switch over to a spoiler.
The upcoming test at the Charlotte Motor Speedway will be the first chance many of these teams have had to try out the new configuration at a track on the Cup schedule. With limited testing and existing notes and information that will soon become (at least somewhat) out of date could this spoiler become a game changer for the season?
The opinions among the drivers are mixed as we have seen over the last few months. Some say 2010 will be split down the middle, while others think the change won’t make much of a difference.
Thanks to the engineers, and NASCAR and team testing we have some idea what this move will do to the downforce of the car. The real test though will come when we have a full field at a place like Texas or Charlotte.
It’s only been since January that teams have known about this and with time ticking away until NASCAR takes the track with the new spoiler, it’s got to be an interesting time to be an engineer at one of these teams. For some organizations, like Richard Childress Racing, that are just getting back on track with their performance the overwhelming question is, ‘will this throw a wrench into our improvement.’ If you’re over at Hendrick, the question is, ‘are we going to be able to maintain our dominance.’
Despite questions they may be asking about what this means for them, they’re not alone in their uncertainty. As those in charge at NASCAR have noted it will take some time to see how this will change things. What happens if this move has no effect, or things actually gets worse? Without the benefit of a lot of on track testing this is a bit of a craps shoot.
Personally I don’t have a clue what’s going to happen. I believe there will be some effect, but given the talk from all parties involved I don’t necessarily believe the impact will be huge.
Change or no change, I can’t say I’m a fan of making a move like this several races in (though I applaud NASCAR for identifying and remedying a problem in a timely manner). However this plays out, it will no doubt be interesting to see how this testing goes and how well this change is received by drivers and fans alike.
So what do you think? Will the spoiler make a difference in the racing or is all this much ado about nothing?
The previous two seasons (2007 and 2008) have provided interesting Silly Seasons with free agents like Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2009 though will go down in the record books as a refreshingly light free agent year.
While 2009 won’t be memorable for big time moves, 2010 could be one for the ages as several prominent drivers could be considering moves away from their current homes.
Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne, Elliott Sadler, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton, David Reutimann and Scott Speed are all reported to have contracts up in 2010. While no one is suggesting (I’m certainly not) Kyle Busch or David Reutimann are going anywhere when their contracts expire, others have been rumored to be looking elsewhere.
Earlier this season Kevin Harvick, the 33-year-old driver of Richard Childress Racing’s No. 29 Chevrolet was rumored to be out at the end of this season. That ultimately proved to be false, but with free agency looming, Harvick hasn’t exactly gone out of his way to deny he’s looking.
His teammate Jeff Burton even told reporters in October he didn’t expect Harvick back after next season.
Kasey Kahne’s another driver who has been vocal about his struggles and frustrations with his present organization. At Homestead Kasey said:
“I use to try and stay in the loop and then things don’t happen that they say will. At this point, I have one year left (on my RPM contract). I want to do the best job for Richard Petty Motorsports in my final year. It’s up to them what happens…Come January, I can start looking around…The ups and downs of the team has made it difficult for me to really say, ‘Man, I’m going to be here for 10 more years.’”
When asked if he was going to look elsewhere next season, Kahne said he would.
Kurt Busch has in the past had struggles with performance and with team owner Roger Penske (TC even speculated earlier this season that Busch’s stellar season could have been related to his pending free agency), but with the successes of this season and with the potential addition of a top notch crew chief, it might be difficult for Busch to find greener pastures.
Even Elliott Sadler and Scott Speed could be guys to watch next season (though this is pure speculation). Sadler notably had a power struggle with the management at RPM following the 2008 season after it was rumored they were looking to cut him from their lineup. They may use this as a chance to cut the driver loose (or he may choose to look elsewhere). And Scott Speed struggled in his first full season, failing to qualify for three races (though the team bought Joe Nemechek’s ride for two of those races) and racking up eight DNFs. With an average finish of 29th and only one top five, one top ten, and a 35th place finish in the driver points (36th in the owner points) Speed didn’t exactly light the world on fire. If he struggles again next season and a top prospect comes available, Red Bull might just put something together; which means Speed could be looking for another ride.
Whatever 2010 holds on the competition side, I can’t say; but it’ll no doubt be an interesting and active year for the free agent (whoever they may ultimately be).