I know he hasn’t won yet, and I know he won’t win the championship, but no matter how you slice it, 2011 has been a very solid season for Dale Earnhardt Jr.
After struggling mightily in 2010 with Lance McGrew atop the box, Rick Hendrick decided it was time to make a change. For 2011, Steve Letarte and his entire team were moved from Jeff Gordon and the 24 to Dale Jr. and the 88. And the improvement in Earnhardt’s performance has been dramatic.
Jr.’s last two points finishes coming into 2011 were 25th (2009) and 21st (2010). With two races remaining this season, he’s currently seventh. It’s only his second Chase appearance in the last five years. His top five finishes (4), top ten finishes (12), and average finish (14.3) are his best since 2008. And if he can maintain his points position, it would be his best season since 2006.
Besides consistently better finishes, Earnhardt had two near misses this season in the quest to end his winless streak. He was passed late at Martinsville in the spring by Kevin Harvick and finished second, and he was leading out of turn four on the white flag lap at Charlotte in May before he ran out of fuel and finished seventh; Harvick won there too. While still winless, these races were the closest he’s come in some time to actually winning.
Transforming Earnhardt from an also-ran into a contender again was not going to happen overnight. A major component in being able to win in any series is believing you can do so, and Jr. was clearly lacking that confidence. A season like he’s having might be just what he needs to get over the hump. As the saying goes, you’ve got to crawl before you can walk.
Of the two races remaining, Phoenix is probably Earnhardt’s last legitimate chance to win this season. The track has been reconfigured so the race is a big question mark, but Earnhardt has won there twice in the past. Even if he doesn’t win though, 2011 has been a very good year for ol’ Junebug.
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Superspeedway racing tends to bring out the worst in everyone and this weekend in Talladega was no different. We had accusations of team orders, then subsequent denials, crew chiefs telling drivers to wreck on purpose, blatant cheating and complaints from everyone on track about the driving. There has been shock and outrage from the NASCAR press corps and the sport’s fan base. After all, who knew any of this went on?!
We’re Shocked Someone May Have Been Cheating
SBNation’s Jeff Gluck posted a story yesterday with audio from #48 crew chief Chad Knaus. Knaus is heard telling Jimmie Johnson to “crack the back of the car” if they win. Presumably they were beyond the allowed tolerances for whatever reason.
Knaus admitted the intention saying he was, “ Just being proactive, I just told Jimmie, ‘Look, man – we’ve just got to make sure there’s a tire mark or some type of visible damage.’ Just because cars do move when you race them like that.”
This ended up being the story du jour on Wednesday. It was unbelievable that a team could be working in the gray area – no one does that! Of course we already knew Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were cheaters…
The Roush Team Orders
Jack Roush telling his drivers to stick with Ford teams!? Ridiculous.
This was the outrage of the weekend after word seeped out that Ford and Roush had, at the very least, made it clear that their teams should stick together at Talladega.
Ford and Roush both denied “orders” were issued, but it was pretty clear what the expectation was.
The way the talk was this weekend though you would have thought Roush was the only one that made this expectation clear. Of course anybody with two eyes and a basic understanding of the sport could see every other team on track had done the same, and why wouldn’t they? As I wrote on Monday, you draft with who brought you.
You Feel Double Crossed?
Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon were both beside themselves after the race Sunday. They had committed dancing partners who they felt abandoned, or sabotaged them in favor of teammates. It’s a cruel world.
Stewart told SB Nation:
“It’s a shame, because I’ve never seen more politics in a race go on in my life than what I saw this weekend…I think the car owners are to blame, the manufacturers are to blame and the fans don’t deserve that.“
Gordon echoed Stewart, saying after the race:
“I don’t think [Trevor Bayne] really ever had any intentions of pushing me, and if he did, the Ford folks told him to do something different. It’s politics, that’s part of it.”
As they say, it’s business, it’s not personal. And of all people I would expect Gordon and Stewart to know that. It’s true it’s unfortunate for the fans, it stinks for those who got the shaft, but the fact is it’s reality. Welcome to NASCAR boys.
Hey Trevor, Cool It With The Hyperbole
Speaking of distraught, Trevor Bayne. He’s young and apparently doesn’t know when to go light on the hyperbole. In an interview with SceneDaily he said:
“I was caught in the worst situation I could have ever been in.”
Devastating. I’ll bet there was some cringing at Roush after that interview.
He did go on to say that he wasn’t forced to switch drafting partners but felt it was his role as Kenseth’s teammate. Either way, nobody can fault him for making the decision he made – not even Jeff Gordon. He’s in a precarious position at Roush and needs to do what he has to do to keep the bosses happy and his butt in a ride.
A lesson though (not for our interests but his own) when you’re trying to make a good impression, toe the company line.
This whole week has left me shaking my head and rolling my eyes. While we don’t necessarily get to be witness to some of this stuff on a weekly basis, it happens that often. No one should be surprised about ANY of this. Consider this week a window into NASCAR reality.
Now on to Martinsville and a decidedly less controversial setting.
Jimmie Johnson had a rough few weeks. He was involved in an on-track altercation with Kurt Busch at Richmond – he finished 31st. He went on to Chicago and had a respectable, but not overwhelming 10th place run. Then he struggled at New Hampshire, finishing 18th.
The driver found himself 29 points back in 10th, the farthest back he’d ever been in a Chase at that point. And to top it off, it looked like there was trouble in paradise between Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. Surely Johnson was done for – or so some would have had you believing.
Barring another miraculous comeback – which is not out of the question – Jimmie Johnson’s five-year reign as NASCAR Sprint Cup champion may finally come to an end this season.
And then we got to Dover. Johnson qualified sixth, led 157 laps and ultimately finished second. That seemingly insurmountable 29 point deficit was cut to just 13 and Johnson picked up five spots in the Chase.
Not a surprising feat for this team.
For the last several seasons the “is Johnson done for?” parlor game has been especially popular for the NASCAR press corps – this year, with Johnson not quite as hot as he has been, the speculation has been just as strong (fair disclaimer, we’ve admittedly been guilty of it). But it seems, just when everyone starts counting them out, team #48 starts making its ascent.
It’s happened a couple times mid-season over the last five years when the team soured, and it happened during Johnson’s inaugural championship run in 2006 when he overcame four straight finishes under 13th (including a 39th and 24th). Still Johnson and Knaus always got it together and came out on top.
We’re just three races into the Chase, and we have one of the strongest Chase fields we’ve ever had, but if last weekend was any indication, this year may not be any different. The fact is, Knaus and Johnson are good, very good. They’ve proven that season after season. And despite the occasional bickering and disagreement the two have chemistry like few before.
For me, after five straight, I’m done counting Jimmie and Chad out. That is until we’re sitting in Las Vegas with someone else at the head table. It’ll happen sooner or later.
Two years ago Brad Keselowski, seeing that his opportunities were limited, left his Nationwide ride at JR Motorsports, for a full time Cup ride at Penske Racing. The move was met with mixed reviews.
And in his first full season in 2010, Keselowski struggled. The team averaged a 22.4 finish and scored just two top-10s. They finished the year 25th in points. It was a disappointing way to start out a new partnership.
2011 looked to be shaping up much the same for Keselowski despite a change at crew chief in the off-season. In the first nine races of the year the team didn’t have a finish better than 18th and found themselves mired back in 28th in points. It was a rough start.
Then came Darlington – ten weeks in and the team finished third. It took just two more weeks for Keselowski to win his first race of the season. Since then, there have been some rough patches here and there, but for the most part, the #2 team has been surging.
In the 11 races since that first win, Keselowski has had seven top-10s, four top-fives and two more wins. The team couldn’t have timed their jump in performance any better. With two races to go until the start of the Chase, Keselowski sits 11th in the points with three wins.
In addition to strengthening his chances at a berth, Keselowski’s surge also provides another interesting dynamic to the Chase race. If he can make it into the top-10 – and with his recent performance that is not at all out of the question – one of those two wild card spots open back up. Right now Denny Hamlin, with one win, gets one of the Chase spots and Paul Menard, 20th in points, gets the other. Chasing Menard is David Ragan in 21st and Marcos Ambrose in 22nd.
For Keselowski though, what looked to be a season of struggle, has turned into a season of triumph. The sky’s the limit for team team #2 – if/when he makes the Chase, Keselowski will be tied for second in the points with Kevin Harvick. That is nothing short of impressive, considering even after his first win, Keselowski was beyond the requisite 20th in points.
In the weeks to come this Penske team is definitely one to watch. Competing in and qualifying for the Chase is all about momentum and right now Brad Keselowski has it – perhaps more than any other. Stay tuned.
Danica Patrick officially announced Thursday she would make a full-time move to NASCAR beginning in 2012. The move puts her in a Nationwide Series car for JR Motorsports for the whole of the season and select Cup races with Stewart Haas. She’ll She may make her Cup debut at next year’s Daytona 500. The announcement ended years of speculation about the driver who has made a name for herself on and off the track.
Patrick’s career has spanned much of the last two decades and has included stints in everything from go-karts to stock cars. While she’s certainly been competitive in everything she’s done, the mystique of Danica has been much more about her packaging than her talent. From racy GoDaddy.com commercials, to spreads in the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition, it’s no wonder Patrick has been accused of exploiting her looks to get ahead.
After saying he respected her for not letting “boyfriends” or wanting to start a family get in the way of her pursuing a racing career, Brad Keselowski tweeted today:
“Essentially she has opened a pandoras box for all female racers. If she doesn’t succeed, no female will get a chance for years to come.”
This assumption that Patrick’s singular ascension to the heights of NASCAR and whether or not she has success is somehow the determining factor for other female drivers is laughably absurd.
Danica Patrick, of course, no more represents all female race car drivers than Brad Keselowski represents males.
Keselowski in prior tweets criticized Patrick’s choice of self-promotion, saying it:
only serves to undermine the future credibility of female racers who wish to make it based on skill, mental toughness and a never give up attitude. That to me is wrong.
It is incredibly unfair to suggest Patrick does not have “skill”, “mental toughness” or a “never give up attitude” all because she is occasionally seen in a bikini.
I don’t mean to just call out Keselowski’s comments (though he did make himself an easy target) because these thoughts are not just isolated to him – we’ve heard them from a lot of people over the years. His thoughts though are representative of a shortsighted belief and point to the hypocrisy of the society we live in.
We want female athletes who are talented and winners, but we want them to be attractive and marketable (how does an attractive, young female athlete market herself today? See Lindsey Vonn, Hope Solo and Danica Patrick). Yet when these women get ahead and take advantage of their good genes, they’re chastised. They’re damned if they use what they have and they’re damned if they don’t.
Patrick, like her contemporaries, is simply using her assets to get the resources she needs to do what she wants.
To be fair, I don’t think what she has done from the business side, is any different than Keselowski getting a makeover to make him a little more camera friendly, or any number of funded drivers using their family’s resources to find a ride. They’re all playing the game.
And I can’t fault anyone for that.
Patrick’s decision to come to NASCAR full-time should provide an interesting storyline and dynamic in 2012. Looks or no looks, I’m interested to see what the race car driver is capable of with the right resources and time. At the end of the day, that’s where our focus should be.
Among the milestones NASCAR is approaching this year is one that may not be on your radar – 26-year-old Kyle Busch is just one win away from matching his 32-year-old brother’s win record.
The two brothers had equally meteoric rises through the NASCAR ranks, beginning at Roush Racing. Kurt in 2000 and Kyle, at age 16, in 2001. When NASCAR started requiring drivers to be 18 or older, a direct result of Kyle’s six-race stretch in a Roush truck, he stepped away from NASCAR. He returned full-time in the Nationwide Series in 2004 with Hendrick Motorsports.
Kyle made his Cup debut in 2005 and won two races before the season was over. Meanwhile Kurt was already an 11-time Cup winner and the reigning champion. Kurt’s falling out with Jack Roush and his unceremonious exit from the team following a reckless driving charge in Maricopa County, Arizona was the talk of the end of 2005. He took over Rusty Wallace’s famous #2 Miller Light Dodge at Penske Racing the following season.
Kyle experienced a similar falling out with Rick Hendrick in 2007 – he took over the #18 Interstate Batteries Toyota from J.J. Yeley the following season.
Even with the bumps in the road, the two Busch boys have racked up pretty impressive stats. Collectively, since 2000 in the Cup Series, they have 45 wins, 162 top-fives, 281 top-10s, 22 poles and one championship in 628 starts.
Statistically, Kyle has the edge on his brother. He has the better average start at 15.1 (Kurt’s is 15.7) and the better average finish at 15.5 (Kurt’s is 16.8). Kyle also averages wins more frequently than his brother – every 11 races compared to every 16.7 races for Kurt.
Interestingly though in the six full seasons the two have raced together, both average the same points finish of 11th and both brothers have missed the Chase just twice in their careers (Kurt in 2006 and 2008; Kyle in 2005 and 2009).
The two have had very similar paths up to this point and have undoubtedly found success on their own terms – both with two different organizations. In the coming weeks and months, with the Penske teams on the upswing, it’ll be interesting to see if Kurt is able to maintain his Cup Series win lead over Kyle. If history is any guide though, it’s only a matter of time before baby brother overtakes him.
I’m going to start this off by saying that this post is just speculation on my part. We haven’t heard this is happening, but I wanted to explore it anyway because I think it’s a real possibility. Even though Jimmie Johnson came back to finish fifth on Sunday at New Hampshire, he was clearly not happy after the race. He took the time to voice his disdain for Juan Pablo Montoya’s driving (a topic for another day), but he also expressed his frustration with their pit crew issues. With the Chase only a few short races away, and Chad Knaus’ recent history, I’m wondering if another crew swap might be coming.
Late in Sunday’s race, Johnson was forced to pit twice under caution after a lugnut was left off during his initial pit stop. In his post race interviews, Johnson told reporters:
“If there is anything major that has to change, we need to do it before the Chase starts. I have no clue what that means. And obviously I’m speaking from frustration with a bad day. We’ve been working, we’ve been patient as a group trying to mature some guys and get stuff ready. But we can’t have these mistakes anymore. We are way to close to the Chase, and we need to be right.”
Johnson’s 48 team is in the situation they are with the pit crew, because following a rough end to the 2010 season, Knaus cleaned house. They brought in a group of younger guys and basically make them tryout for their jobs every week. I wasn’t convinced early in the year about Knaus’ plan, and as I wrote a couple weeks ago, things haven’t gone well all season. Sunday’s race was just another example of their struggles.
So what options does Knaus have? Barring a drastic turn around in the coming races before the Chase, it appears he has two. The first would be to try and find even more new guys to plug into the crew. I have heard they are looking for more guys, but I’m not sure there are really talented, experienced guys just out there floating around. And even if they were to bring in some new pieces, it would take a few races for everyone to gel.
The second option would be another crew swap. We saw last season at Texas that Hendrick didn’t have a problem swapping the 24 and 48 crews, and we may be on the brink of seeing that again. This time though, it won’t be the 24 and 48 swapping.
Since the 48, 24, and 88 are all (at least currently) in the Chase, it would appear to me that the 5 crew might be ripe for poaching. Mark Martin currently sits 20th in the points, and it would take a dramatic turn around to make up the 70 points that he is currently out of the Chase. Martin’s pit crew would be exactly what Knaus needs to get Johnson his sixth straight title; very solid and experienced. The current 48 crew would be sufficient enough to get the 5 through the remainder of the season, and then Knaus could form a new plan heading into 2012.
Now again, remember this is all speculation on my part. But don’t be surprised if something like this happens if the 48 crew continues to struggle.
By now, I’m sure you know by heart the story behind Jimmie Johnson’s pit crew. The team struggles at Texas, gets replaced by Jeff Gordon’s crew for the remainder of the Chase, and all but a few are gone at season’s end. Coming into 2011, Chad Knaus decided to go in a different direction with his pit crews. Over the off season, the team held a ton of tryouts and brought in a big group of younger guys. His plan was to send the fastest six guys from the week’s practices over the wall during that week’s race. It would be the ultimate earn your spot crew. I told you in January that I thought it was a bad idea, and I’m being proven correct.
Before this last week’s race at Michigan, Johnson had a few quotes and comments about the situation and how it’s going. To hear him and Knaus talk, you’d think things were going well. In reality though, race fans have watched the team struggle at times this season. There have certainly been some bright spots, but there have also been some missteps. And those missteps have led to Knaus making changes. The front changer and front carrier were swapped out a few races back, but we’ve seen the new tandem make some mistakes recently. If that continues, expect more changes.
Like I said in my post back in January, the really good pit crews are those that have worked together for a while. Really tight pit stops only happen when guys know each other really well, and can anticipate each other’s every move. If a mistake happens, the team rallies, makes a correction, and keeps digging. Teamwork like that only comes from continuity. Knaus has dismissed this completely.
What every smart pit crew coach and crew chief understands is that mistakes are going to happen on pit road. There is just too much happening very quickly, and in very tight spaces for things to go right all the time. The guys who stick around on pit road for many years are those who are able to quickly forget about mistakes and get right back to business. A guy who is constantly worried about making one small mistake and getting replaced won’t be at the top of his game. He’s too focused on not screwing up, when he should be focused on staying loose and doing things right.
The pit crew situation at Hendrick Motorsports is really an interesting dichotomy. On one hand we’ve got Knaus with his brilliant plan, and on the other we’ve got the rest of the teams using the traditional method. The 88 and 5 pit crews consist of veteran guys who’ve been together for some time. The 24 crew has a mix of veteran and younger guys, but they have been kept together. You know the result.
At the end of the day, I feel bad for those six who strap up and don Lowe’s firesuits each week. In some sense, they are behind before they even start. They are already responsible for servicing the race car for the reigning five-time champ, but because of their leader’s plan, they are subject to an extra helping of pressure. Instead of hearing “hey, we’ve got your back and we support you,” they get “hey, don’t screw up or you’re out.” Not a great message. And everyone in the garage sees it, except for Chad Knaus.
The recently announced Farmers-to-Hendrick deal for Kasey Kahne has spawned some discussion and speculation about the future of UPS’ NASCAR sponsorship. Apparently some felt that UPS was a candidate to adorn the hood of Kahne’s future ride at HMS, but the Farmers deal seems to signal that that now won’t happen. UPS’ current deal with Roush Fenway and David Ragan is up at the end of this season, and you can be sure they will be exploring all options.
The first time – and so far only time – we saw Kahne and UPS mentioned in the same sentence publicly was in a recent post from Scene Daily’s Bob Pockrass. Pockrass speculated about where UPS could end up, and mentioned Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer as possible candidates if they decide to leave Ragan’s #6 car. But as we saw back in 2008, drivers of that caliber may be out of reach for UPS.
It is believed that the current UPS deal with RFR pays somewhere around $17-$18 million per season, and the reason the shipper ended up with Ragan back in ’08 was because that wasn’t enough to lock down a big name like Edwards for a full season. Barring a major shift in strategy and budget from UPS, numbers in that neighborhood don’t appear to be enough this time around either. Sports Business Journal’s Tripp Mickle says Farmers is paying HMS $17.6 million a season for partial sponsorship of Kahne’s car, and that might be a big sign that UPS could again be priced out of the game for upper tier drivers.
Pockrass does mention that a partial deal with UPS and Edwards might be a way for Roush to keep Big Brown. For that to happen though, UPS would have to agree to share a driver with another sponsor(s), which is something we haven’t seen them do in the past. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but it would certainly be a departure from their past deals.
With Ragan much improved this season, UPS may just end up re-signing. But there is still so much up in the air for RFR, it may be some time before we know anything definitive. If 2008 was any indication though, expect UPS to be linked with everyone and their dog for the duration of the summer.
The business end of NASCAR is finally starting to turn around, and we saw proof of it this last week. On Tuesday, Farmers Insurance announced a three year deal to sponsor Kasey Kahne’s #5 Chevrolets at Hendrick Motorsports. Farmers will be the primary sponsor for 22 races each season, and will get “prominent brand placement” in all other events. While Hendrick still has races to fill for the #5, Farmers represents new money into NASCAR, and that’s a good sign for everyone.
It seems that over the last few seasons, we’ve seen many sponsors move from one team to another, but we haven’t seen a ton of new sponsors coming in. The downturn in the economy and NASCAR’s attendance and ratings struggles have been the main reasons. It’s certainly not a bad thing when sponsors move teams, just as long as they stay involved in the sport. But over time, it’s unrealistic to think that all current sponsors will stay involved. Agendas will change and companies will leave. It’s important to the future health of the sport that teams are able to attract sponsors that have never been involved in NASCAR before.
Farmers’ deal with Hendrick is part of a broader plan by the insurance provider to increase consumer awareness. They’ve also signed recent deals with the PGA Tour and the proposed NFL stadium in Los Angeles. (If you’re a Sports Business Journal subscriber, see recent article about Farmers here.)
Along with the good news from HMS, we heard from FOX this week that the overall TV ratings for their 13 events were up 9% over 2010. As NASCAR rights deals edge closer to expiring, numbers like this will be very important in the renegotiation process. They also help teams in selling sponsorship deals like Hendrick did with Farmers.
As the year progresses, hopefully we will see a few more deals like this one emerge. There are plenty of teams still looking to lock down sponsorship for 2012 and beyond, including RCR’s #33, and maybe Farmers will help open up a flow of new money.