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As we watched Marcos Ambrose blow a second tire and hit the wall on Sunday at Dover, I couldn’t help but feel sorry for the guy.  After a very strong rookie campaign in 2009 that saw him finish 19th in the points standings on the strength of four top five and seven top ten finishes, 2010 has been difficult at best.  Ambrose and his #47 JTG Daugherty team only had two DNFs all last season, and they already have four through twelve races.  A difficult first third of his sophomore season isn’t exactly what the Australian had in mind.

Much of the trouble for Ambrose this season has been just plain bad luck.  At Daytona, he blew an engine 21 laps before halfway.  He then had to retire a week later at California after only 170 of 250 laps because of an overheating problem.  Wrong place, wrong time wrecks at Bristol and Talladega continued the stretch of bad luck.  And handling and engine issues at Darlington, followed by two blown tires at Dover on Sunday only added to the struggles.

It hasn’t been all bad though.  Besides their good runs in 2009, four top eleven finishes this season at Atlanta, Martinsville, Phoenix, and Richmond have shown this team can compete.  Ambrose certainly has the talent and with support from Michael Waltrip Racing, JTG Daugherty has the necessary equipment and resources.  Now the Frank Kerr led team just needs to find a little luck.

Their may be relief on the horizon though.  The upcoming schedule has stops that favor Ambrose.  Races at Pocono and Sonoma, where he ran well last season should help, and the small successes he’s had this season should bode well for Charlotte and Loudon.  A little luck at Michigan and Daytona would also go a long way in helping this team dig out of 28th place in the standings.

The sophomore slump, whether real or imagined, seems to affect many young drivers.  It’s difficult to point to a reason why it happens, but it might be as simple as raised expectations cause the driver to push too hard at times.  What’s good for Ambrose though, is while he may be in only his second full Cup season, he is not an inexperienced racer.  A solid career in Australian V8 Supercars, followed by plenty of seat time in the Truck and Nationwide Series should aide him in dealing with the adversity.

It’s anybody’s guess when Ambrose’s bad luck will finally end, but make no mistake, Ambrose is a contender.  There is no reason why he couldn’t be a first time Sprint Cup winner in 2010.

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…and consistency too – consistency is always good.

If you ask some around the sport, the spoiler has had a big impact. The Gibbs cars are surging, RCR has finally gotten their competitive edge back and the Hendrick cars aren’t, well…winning. As great as this story line is and as simple as this is to explain why HMS hasn’t been great (and by ‘hasn’t been great’ I mean why they haven’t won a race) since NASCAR implemented the change, it doesn’t really tell the whole story.

Take Jimmie Johnson, everyone’s favorite target. What makes/made the #48 team so strong is their consistency and their ability to put together absolutely flawless performances (hence the four championships). In the last two seasons Johnson and team 48 only had two DNFs. That is remarkable. In the first 12 races of this season though, Jimmie has had three.

Even still the team’s performance has been pretty good. Since the spoiler was implemented he’s led 386 laps and finished in the top-10 in four of seven races. Of the other three races, Johnson was wrecked in two of them, and finished 16th on Sunday after a speeding penalty late in the race likely cost him the win.

Even without a trophy this past weekend, Johnson still has three wins to his credit and will be set up very nicely when the Chase rolls around. Still, what I see is a team not affected by the spoiler, but a team that has been affected by unfortunate incidents and flawed performances.

To my larger point, the #48 team has been a victim of bad luck and mistakes. What were the odds that AJ Allmendinger would go shooting up the track at Darlington, and of 42 other guys, it was Jimmie Johnson who happened to be perfectly positioned to have his car destroyed? And since when does Jimmie Johnson get caught speeding on pit road? It’s these little things, some within their control and some not, that are costing this team wins (not the spoiler).

Johnson isn’t alone this season either. We’ve seen small mistakes and bad luck cost Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton wins. Even Kyle Busch has lost out this season.

The moral of this story is, sometimes luck is not on your side. And bad luck coupled with mistakes can make you and your team look really bad. This is exactly where Jimmie Johnson is right now. From here on out their championship hopes and the hopes of their fellow competitors will rest on just how flawlessly they can run.

Having luck, and having consistency are keys to success in this sport, perhaps more than any other. Seldom though is the team and the driver that can put these things together. But when everything clicks, magic happens, and winners are born and championships made.

As they say, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

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