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This past weekend at Texas Tony Stewart notched his fourth win in the Chase – it was an impressive feat considering that prior to the first Chase race in Chicago it had been 32 races since he’d last seen victory lane. Despite the late string of success, Stewart still finds himself second in the championship points standings. For some that’s inexplicable.
This fundamental question of what’s more important in the push to a championship is something that’s dogged NASCAR and motorsports for a long time. Do we want a champion who the had the best overall Chase, or the one who had the most wins? Often times they are not one and the same.
NASCAR, prior to this season, retooled the points in an effort to simplify and put slightly more emphasis on winning. The new system gave three extra points to the top finisher in addition to another point for leading a lap. NASCAR also gave the two teams outside of the top-10 but inside the top-20 with the most wins berths in the Chase.
The result of the points changes, while certainly an improvement and much easier to understand has been pretty insignificant this season. But is that a bad thing?
Championship success in NASCAR unlike other sports is not and never has been solely based on winning. It’s of course important, but consistency and good finishes are often the key. Consider Carl Edwards has an average finish of 9.7 on the season, with one win, and 5.6 in the Chase with no wins. Tony Stewart on the other hand is averaging a finish of 12.6 on the season and 7.3 in Chase. For Stewart that includes those four wins.
Carl has without a doubt put together the better, more consistent season. He’s even put together the better, more consistent Chase. And that’s why he finds himself leading the points.
I’ve always been of the belief that the best team should win the championship no matter how it gets there. In this case I want the team with the best Chase performance to win it all. Whether that means the championship winning team has the most wins or the most number of better finishes.
So what do you think should get the emphasis? Consistency? Or wins? Does NASCAR need to restructure the points again? Should Tony Stewart be leading the points?
I’ve probably written this sentence about a dozen times so far this year, but wow this is shaping up to be a season to remember. After this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen we have 15 different winners and five different first-time winners. Those are extraordinary numbers from a season that still has 14 races left.
Consider last year – there were only 13 different winners by the time we reached Homestead in November.
The numbers are even more impressive when considered against other forms of American motorsports. In the IndyCar Series, in addition to other issues, there have been seven different winners in 13 races. And in a season dominated by the Chip Ganassi Racing team, the Grand-Am Rolex Sports Car Series has just four different winners in 10 races.
With 11 of the top-20 in the Cup Series already winners so far this season, who else is in a position to win and compete for those two wildcard slots in the Chase?
The group above accounts for the most likely future winners this season. Still, we make another stop at Talladega and with the out of nowhere wins from a couple this season, the next Cup Series winner may be completely off the radar. Stay tuned because this is just getting interesting.
Coming off of a season that saw a pot hole mar the opening race and then rain and other issues combine to make for a less than stellar start, 2011 has been nothing short of a breath of fresh air in the Cup Series. And consider this, with Jimmie Johnson’s come from behind win Sunday in Talladega this season has produced seven different winners in eight different races – not a bad start to the season.
Add to that solid start four different championship points leaders and six different lead changes and you’ve got a season that hasn’t really had a stand out driver or team through the first portion.
Our current top-ten in points have had some good stats to back them up – all have at least four top-tens, and with the exception of Kurt Busch, all have at least two top-fives. Half of them have wins. All – with the exception of Kurt Busch – hold the distinction though of having at least one finish of 24th or worse. Some have finishes a lot worse.
The only guy to score repeat wins? Well so far, Kevin Harvick has a DNF at Daytona and two sub-17th place finishes on top of that. His season has so far been a bit of a roller coaster.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the only drivers to have any measure of consistency are the top-three. Carl Edwards is averaging a finish of 8.2 (with blemishes at Phoenix and Martinsville); Jimmie Johnson is averaging a finish of 8.9 with one bad run at Daytona; and Dale Earnhardt Jr., though he is winless, is channeling that classic Steve Letarte consistency, averaging a 10th place finish with just one DNF (a 24th place finish) at Daytona.
Even with the brighter spots in the top-ten, the points are still close enough for drivers to have big swings in and out. Both Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth jumped five spots (in opposite directions) this past weekend.
The fact is, and I think this speaks to the level of competition we have right now in the sport, there just isn’t a dominate team. Going into race nine, it gets harder to turn seven out of eight into eight out of nine, but with the way this season has gone, anything could happen.
So what do you think? Has anybody stood out to you? Who’s most likely to make an early run?
Did you know since the start of the season only one non-Cup regular has won a national series event? The driver? Trevor Bayne.
Who would have thought by this point in the season, 11 races in (counting all the races in all three series), the Daytona 500 winner would be the only non-Cup regular to win a race? Crazy. This leads me to wonder what effect the points changes have had on who is racing where. Though I’ve been moderately supportive of the changes, the obvious answer is not much.
Kyle Busch, or a Kyle Busch owned team has won five of 11 races – four of which have come in a non-Cup Series event. We’ve seen NASCAR veterans Mark Martin and Michael Waltrip win, and Kasey Kahne continue his perfect Truck Series streak. We’ve had a lot of compelling storylines; the regulars in the Truck and Nationwide Series just haven’t been part of it.
As a result the points leaders in the two lowers series who have no wins and just one top-five finish between the two of them. In the Nationwide Series it’s Jason Leffler who leads the points with no top-fives and three top-tens. He’s averaging an 8.5 place finish. Series veteran Matt Crafton leads the truck points with one top-five and three top-10s. He’s averaging a seventh place finish.
Your second place driver in the Truck Series? That’s 19-year-old Cole Whitt with just two top-ten finishes to his name.
Ironically, for all the early seasion talk from NASCAR about how the points changes would put a little more emphasis on wins, the Cup Series points leader, Kurt Busch, also has no wins, just one one top-five, and four top-tens. Is consistency still the king? It sure is looking that way.
While I was definitely an advocate of some kind of a points move, I’m sorry to see what they’ve done hasn’t really changed anything. Certainly we don’t expect Kyle Busch et al to run the full season in the Truck and Nationwide Series, but their presence thus far has been overwhelming – and in most cases stifling. There is still a lot of season to go, but from what we’ve seen so far, I don’t expect too many changes.
So three – or four – races in what do you think about the points changes? Was it what you expected? Give us your points opinion so far!
I didn’t have one idea that I wanted to focus on with my last blog post before the 2011 season gets under way this week, so instead I’ve got a bunch of mini topics to touch on. Feel free to comment on any or all of them.
New Points System I’ve been asked by a few people what my opinion is of the new points system NASCAR has instituted for this season, and I’ve got to say, I don’t really care. It seems on initial inspection that it isn’t a ton different then the old system, and I really don’t believe it will change the way teams race. Teams will still try like hell to win races, and when they can’t, they will do whatever is necessary to get the best possible finish they can. You will also still see teams try and get their race cars back on track after a wreck in order to ride around and get as many points as they can. The mindset won’t change. So I guess if the new system makes things easier for the fans, cool, but other than that, I don’t care.
Final Pit Procedure Thoughts We’ve talked quite a bit around here about the new pit road procedures with the elimination of the catch can position, but I just wanted to offer a few final points. I encourage you to really pay attention to pit stops at Daytona, because you will definitely see some differing techniques among the teams. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it appears as though one or two teams use a system that works better than the others, and for the other teams to follow suit shortly. It will be kind of a “monkey see, monkey do” situation once the teams get a chance to scout each other. These changes will also have a significant impact on pit strategy and what adjustments will get made. It’s a whole new ball game for crew chiefs and engineers now, and I think there is a much larger emphasis now on the decisions they make during the races. You will see a lot more races decided based on pit strategies – at least in the short run.
Important Season For Many Drivers, Teams, and Sponsors There are quite a few drivers and sponsors this season that have contracts that will be expiring after Homestead in November. Lee Spencer from FoxSports.com recently had a bit up about all the Cup drivers who are in the final year of their contracts in 2011 (see it here). This really could be a year that we look back on and say that this was the year that made or broke driver X or team Y. There will be a lot of pressure on those drivers and teams to put in solid performances every week in order to help secure their futures. With the economy continuing to a be a big factor with sponsorships, these teams don’t want to give these companies any reason to either switch to another race team, or pull out completely. It will certainly be an interesting story line to watch.
Nationwide Series Changes I’m really curious to see how the 2011 season unfolds for the Nationwide Series after the championship eligibility changes were made. Will it really help bring the series back to being a developmental series, or will the Cup drivers continue to dominate regardless? We haven’t had a solid Cup rookie class in a couple of years, and the deterioration of the Nationwide Series has certainly played a part in that. In order to keep the talent coffers full of new young drivers, it’s vital that the NNS get back to being a place where these kids can learn how to race.
Championship Predictions We don’t normally do a ton of predictions around here, because they are mostly useless, and it’s pretty much impossible to get them right. But with that said, I’m going to give you my picks on who I think will win each of the top three championships. In the Truck Series, I believe the addition of Jeff Hensley to KHI will pay off big and Ron H0rnaday will return to dominance. Hornaday ran really well last season, but just had a lot of bad luck. Expect that to change for 2011. For the Nationwide Series, I think the pick has to be Elliott Sadler. The Joe Gibbs Toyotas are pretty much unstoppable, but since neither Joey Logano nor Kyle Busch can win the championship, the balance shifts towards KHI. Sadler has the talent and will have the equipment to be a contender every week, and I don’t see any of the younger drivers putting it together for 34 races. And finally, the 2011 Cup Series champion will be Denny Hamlin. The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
The off season has ended, and teams will head to Daytona this week. The next time you hear from me, we’ll have our first race winner (even if it is an exhibition race), and the front row will be set for the Daytona 500. Welcome to 2011!
It’s hard to believe, but we’re just a couple of days away from the end of the season. And with a three way battle for the championship I thought now would be as good a time as any for my annual look at the points within the Chase and in the old points format.
Current Points Under the Old System:
1)#29-Kevin Harvick, 5109 2) #48-Jimmie Johnson, 4814, -295 3) #11-Denny Hamlin, 4744, -365 4) #99-Carl Edwards, 4625, -484 5) #24-Jeff Gordon, 4617, -492 6) #18-Kyle Busch, 4580, -529 7) #17-Matt Kenseth, 4497, -612 8 ) #14-Tony Stewart, 4481, -628 9) #2-Kurt Busch, 4350, -759 10) #31-Jeff Burton, 4348, -761 11) #16-Greg Biffle, 4280, -829 12) #33-Clint Bowyer, 4249, -860 13) #5-Mark Martin, 4249, -860 14) #1-Jamie McMurray, 4225, -884
Current Points Under the Chase:
1)#11-Denny Hamlin, 6462 2) #48-Jimmie Johnson, 6447, -15 3) #29-Kevin Harvick, 6416, -46 4) #99-Carl Edwards, 6198, -264 5) #17-Matt Kenseth, 6151, -311 6) #24-Jeff Gordon, 6124, -338 7) #18-Kyle Busch, 6115, -347 8 ) #16-Greg Biffle, 6113, -349 9) #14-Tony Stewart, 6074, -388 10) #2-Kurt Busch, 6033, -429 11) #33-Clint Bowyer, 6028, -434 12) #31-Jeff Burton, 5958, -504 13) #5-Mark Martin, 4249, -2213 14) #1-Jamie McMurray, 4225, -2237
In previous years what we’ve seen is a lot of similarity between the two lists, this year, not as much.
Only Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards maintain their same positions within both points systems. And for a few it’s one shift down or up. While the lists are different, the cream is at the top of both.
No doubt though, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have benefited substantially from the Chase – without it they’d be out of the fight. Obviously, Kevin Harvick has benefited the least.
Under the old system Harvick would have easily pulled out the Championship win – in fact we would have been celebrating that one a couple of weeks ago. Now we’ve got a three way Chase (finally) going into the last race. I know it’s worn and tired, but with just 46 points separating first from third, it’s still anybody’s game.
Every year I do this, I always get scolded by someone for taking part in this “pointless, what if practice.” At the very least though it’s entertaining to see how the two differ – for the sake of curiosity. For me, I think it’s interesting to see how, despite the implementation of a thing like the Chase, the best cars from that season are always the ones competing for the championship – if not a little closer than they would have been.
Chase or not, I know I’m looking forward to seeing how this thing ends on Sunday.
As the Cup Series enters its final three race stretch, NASCAR finally has the championship race the Chase promised (a familiar refrain I know). With just 38 points separating first from third, this is still a wide open fight. Look to the two lower series though and there is a very different story.
For all intents and purposes the championship races in the Nationwide and Truck Series have been over for a while. In the Nationwide Series, Brad Keselowski has run away from the pack (thanks in large part to Kyle Busch’s partial schedule). Going into the final three races he has a 485 point lead over second place Carl Edwards. It looks like the Captain will finally get a championship in NASCAR.
Then there’s Todd Bodine in the Truck Series. Though he fought early on in the season with young guys like Timothy Peters and Aric Almirola, he’s held a convincing lead for the last couple of months. As it stands right now, Bodine has a 216 point lead over Aric Almirola in second place.
The dichotomy of these two points systems is interesting in the continuing debate over the Chase. While we still have a race and a story in the Cup Series (on top of the actual race every week), we’re only watching the other two series – barring any unforeseen circumstances – to see the individual events .
This is of course what NASCAR has been trying to find since they implemented the Chase in 2004. This playoff like system has been hailed by the sport, but not very well received by many fans. I think that’s in large part due to the fact that it really hasn’t worked like planned. On top of that the same guy has won the championship the last four years (and is in the points lead right now).
I know I’ve written a ton of Chase related posts here before, but given the points situations, where we have a lock in two series and a wide open race in the other (thanks to the Chase system), which system do you prefer (if they’re working like they should)? Which system do you think is working?
Increasingly, I’m not sure which I prefer. I do know I’d like to see some uniformity throughout the sport, but that’s honestly neither here nor there.
So what do you think? Are you interested in the Chase this year? Do you like what you’re seeing? Do you prefer a system that allows us to have a runaway winner? Or do you like it’s traditional consistency? Feel free to talk amongst yourselves.
The Chase heads west this week for a little racing action, California style. While we dream of surf and sun, here are more of our answers to your NASCAR questions. If you don’t know what this post is, we answer any and all reader questions every Wednesday, right here. So if you’ve got one, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send one to us. On to the questions…
1. From Christa:
I don’t normally bash the race broadcast, but the coverage by ESPN on Sunday was HORRIBLE!! Cutting to commercial during green with 10 to go is inexcusable. My question is this, any chance NASCAR can pressure them to put on a decent show? Or do you think outcry from the fans is the only solution? I’ve already sent them an angry email to do my part, but I’d like to hear your thoughts. Thanks!
NASCAR can certainly put pressure on them to change things, but at the end of the day it’s ESPN’s call. I really hate to say this, and I’m not necessarily advocating it, but the best way to show ESPN you don’t like their product is to tune out (or DVR it). The emails and letters don’t hurt. They’re looking at it right now anyway thanks to the large ratings declines over the last three races. You aren’t alone in your feelings on this – if you ever check out The Daly Planet this has been a constant complaint from many viewers. In fact JD did a writeup on the ESPN ratings issue today. – Journo
2. From Jeanette:
Hi guys. Perhaps you can settle a discussion that took place while my boyfriend and I were watching qualifying recently. When a crew chief tells the driver after his lap “P-4″ or “P-whatever”, does the P stand for position? provisional?
Whoever said it stood for position is the winner. The crew chief, or spotter will tell the driver p whatever to let them know where they stand in qualifying, practice, or the race. – Journo
3. From Anonymous:
Hey guys, love the website! Keep doing what you’re doing! This may seem like a silly question but I often notice after a race that when pit reporters are doing postrace interviews, many times the drivers are already changed into street clothes. Are the drivers fast in the shower in addition to being fast on the track or do the TV producers ‘collapse time’ and make things look like they are happening quicker than they really are? Many thanks!
Thanks! No silly questions here. No time collapse, the drivers you see who have changed have enough time to go back to the hauler (generally they do it in the lounge) to change out of their firesuits. – Journo
4. From brian:
Years ago Petty put Wilson in the 44 car after he retired. He had to change the number back to #43 b/c the NASCAR rule was if you don’t use it you lose it. Why isn’t the same with the #3. It is always said Childress has the #, but if he isn’t using it why can’t someone else use it?
Technically, no team owns a number. NASCAR owns all the numbers and grants permission to the teams to use them. So really, if somebody wanted to use the number, they could petition NASCAR to get it. However, I think nobody asking to use it is more of a respect thing than anything else. – T.C.
5. From Michael in SoCal:
Hi guys. I just watched this week’s Whelen Southern Modified race on Versus and there was mention of Langley Speedway winner, Tim Brown, who was going to race at Tri-County Speedway. Jack Arute & Jimmy Spencer mentioned that Brown, who works for Michael Waltrip Racing, was called out to Phoenix by MWR for testing there. I thought testing was banned at any track where the top three series race? Any insight as to what this was all about? Thanks.
Just because he was called to Phoenix to do a test doesn’t necessarily mean they were at Phoenix International Raceway. I don’t recall any Goodyear tire tests there this season, so I doubt that’s where they went. I would imagine that the test was at the Toyota Proving Grounds in Wittman, AZ. The facility is about an hour and a half outside of Phoenix. – T.C.
6. From David:
With all the Nationwide series rookies getting the boot do you think that NASCAR needs to have contracts like the NFL or NBA???
You’ve got to feel for these guys, but the structure of NASCAR makes it difficult to have a labor union like you see in the NFL or the NBA. The drivers are independent contractors in NASCAR – they work individually for teams, who at the end of the day have no stake in the sport as a whole – which is quite different than other major American sports leagues where the owners make up the league. I think there is an argument to be made that these guys need more protections, but how exactly to do that I don’t know. – Journo
7. From Jon:
I have a few questions… but before I begin first I wanna say I love the blog, I’ve written in a few times and you guys always answer my questions! You guys do a 100x better job than NASCAR PR LOL. 1. I was looking at some old race results at racing-reference.info and noticed in ’95 and ’96, both races (when phx featured just 1 event) had 44 cars. why? when/how did nascar decide on the 43 car field # and what dictated the # before? 2. i’m pretty sure i’ve read this somewhere/heard it on a broadcast, but i’m not 100% sure. let’s say two guys tie at the end of the season w/ the same # of points. the driver with the most wins gets the better spot in the points, right? do they have tiebreakers to determine who takes the higher spot in points after wins (if they are still tied)? 3. why hasn’t nascar considered running more nationwide one-off events? if they want to get cup regulars out, woudln’t it make more sense to run the events in tandem with say a truck or arca or IRL event, at a venue where the cup series isn’t? if they did this more than just the 3 times a year (i think?) that they do this now, to say like, 9-10, wouldn’t it be way more likely a regular would win rather than a cup series regular? i’m just looking for slightly easier “fixes” for the Nationwide series, as opposed to some ridiculous idea of leaving Cup regulars out of the points championship.
For a much better explanation of why we have 43 car fields, and the situation you mention at Phoenix, check out this piece by Dave Rodman from the 2002 season. In regards to ties in the point system, the NASCAR rule book says that if two drivers are tied, the tie will be broken by which driver has the most first place finishes. If they are still tied, it then goes to second place finishes, third places finish, and so on and so forth. If a tie still remains after that, “the driver having the highest finishing position first during the current season prevails.” And to your question about more standalone events, I honestly have no idea. The Nationwide/Busch Series did used to run more events by itself, but over the course of the last decade or so, most of the schedule has been changed to run in conjunction with the Cup Series. It’s probably more about drawing more fans to the track and offering more entertainment for a weekend than anything else. – T.C.
8. From Craig:
Does NASCAR give directives to the broadcast teams about what to talk about or what not to criticize? Example, when it comes to 1.5 mile tracks, fans call them “cookie-cutters”, but I’ve seen broadcasters go out of their way to attack that term. I saw that again today with John Roberts on Speed saying “don’t call them cookie-cutters”. Is there some NASCAR PR campaign to defend 1.5 tracks, since they’re a focus of fan criticism?
If NASCAR hears something they don’t like they’re probably going to let the broadcast teams know, but there is no edict from on high telling the broadcast teams how to behave. I think more of what you’re seeing is the teams being hyper-vigilant about what they’re saying so as not to diminish the product that their employer is paying a lot of money to broadcast. With the way ratings are ESPN knows better than anyone they don’t need a negative narrative from their broadcast team. – Journo
9. From Robert:
If KBM closes, where do you think Rick Ren will go? No one in NASCAR, would let a crew chief like this go to waste.
It really depends on Rick Ren. I don’t know what his motivations are, or what type of position he would want (crew chief or director of competition like he is now), but I’m sure he could probably have any job in the Truck Series that he wanted. There would certainly be no shortage of teams beating down his door to get him. Don’t be so certain that KBM is closing next season though. Even if they don’t run every race, I wouldn’t be surprised if KBM still existed in some form next year. – T.C.
10. From Billy:
How does NASCAR’s approval process for new drivers work?
Drivers must submit a resume to NASCAR for consideration. Brett Bodine, who works as NASCAR’s Director of Cost Research makes most of the decisions about who gets approved for what. Usually, drivers must start out in a lower series on tracks a mile and under, then they will get approved for 1.5 to two mile tracks, and finally the superspeedways. It’s totally a judgement call on NASCAR’s part however – drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya and Danica Patrick were approved for bigger races much quicker because of their past experience. – T.C.
11. From Robert:
Any rumors or ideas as to what is going on at RCR in regards to a second truck team? Rumors had it for awhile that his other grandson, TY, would sit in a truck next season.
As far as we have heard, RCR is working toward having two Truck Series teams next season, one for Austin and one for Ty. It’s interesting to note though, that Ty won’t turn 18 in time to run Daytona. His birthday is February 27th, so he wouldn’t be able to make his series debut until the March 12th race at Darlington. – T.C.
And that brings yet another “Ask The Insiders Wednesday” to a close. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions. And remember, if you’d like to be a part of next week, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send your question in!
Is the Chase not good enough for the Nationwide and Truck Series, or are the Nationwide and Truck Series not good enough for the Chase?
As NASCAR tries to fix what probably doesn’t need to be fixed, I’ve got wonder how long it’s going to take them to start applying the points changes (that is the six year old changes) to their two other series.
I know, for many of you, the Chase is a sore subject – and you would just as soon see them get rid of it than see it expanded. No matter your feelings though, doesn’t having two different systems to determine champions throughout the sport undermine the legitimacy of the most contested points system?
I won’t get into NASCAR making changes to the Chase (for the record I think it’s a bad idea – and feel free to discuss it), but I do believe there needs to be uniformity across the series in how a champion is crowned.
In one breath NASCAR is saying the Chase is a great way to determine a champion (though apparently not great enough), and then in the other (though not directly) acknowledging the strength of the old system by allowing it to continue in two of its three national series. Hence the undermining.
I get we’re supposed to have three distinct and unique series. Despite those differences though, and the individual strengths of each of the series, I firmly believe NASCAR needs to administer all three as similarly as possible. If one has a Chase, they should all have a Chase.
On top of that, I think it serves its purpose well enough. We get better fights at the end of the season – and more often than not the best driver does win. So why can’t this work in the Truck and Nationwide Series?
I know it’s not a big thing, but I want a sport that functions like a cohesive unit – not like three stand alone bodies. It may, or may not bother you that NASCAR doesn’t use a uniform system across all three of its series, but it kind of bothers me.
What do you think? Is uniformity in the points necessary across all three series? Would you like to see the Chase be the points system across the sport?