Sep 25th, 2009 by T.C.
With the Chase for the Sprint Cup in full swing headed to Dover, teams must bring their “A” game to the track every weekend to have a chance at the championship. The smallest mistake by a mechanic, or a slight misstep by a pit crew could cost their team everything. I was curious though just how good a team had to be over the final ten races to secure the championship, so I did a little research to find out (Racing-Reference.info is great).
A big story this week was Kasey Kahne’s blown engine at Loudon. Some suspected sabotage, but a broken crankshaft proved to be the culprit. Many have said this mechanical failure probably ended Kahne’s chances at the championship. But before you write him off, remember that Jimmie Johnson started off the 2006 Chase with a 39th at Loudon. But Johnson was able to win the Cup with a final six race stretch that included a win, four second place finishes, and a ninth at Homestead. Kahne and Co. are certainly capable of such a run, but with the inconsistency they’ve shown this year, fans have plenty of reason to worry.
The only other driver to have a finish outside the top 25 in the Chase and still win the championship was Kurt Busch in 2004. He finished 42nd at Atlanta, but powered to the Cup with eight top six finishes (including a win). In 2005, eventual winner Tony Stewart’s worst finish was 25th, while Johnson’s worst finishes in ‘07 and ‘08 were a 14th and a 15th respectively.
Since the Chase was introduced, the highest average finish for the champion came in that 2006 season with Johnson. He averaged a 10.8 over the final ten races. But Johnson needed an average finish of fifth in 2007, and an average of 5.7 in 2008 to win those titles.
Just by looking briefly over the statistics, it would appear that the competition for the Cup gets more difficult every year. While a team may be allowed one mulligan finish, odds are that one bad weekend could ruin their shot. Johnson’s worst finish last year was a 15th as I said above, and even with an average finish of 5.7, his margin over second place was a scant 69 points. Over ten races, that means earning 6.9 points more per race then the next guy, or finishing about two positions better on track.
How’s that for pressure?
