Ratings. Ratings. Ratings.
For the last several seasons following the highs and lows of TV viewership in NASCAR has been as much a sport as the action on track every weekend. From NASCAR’s height in 2005 to its lowpoint last season the sport’s media latched onto the storyline of NASCAR’s decline.
The weekly reports of the overnight ratings, the stories about attendance, the surely inexplicable double digit drop in ESPN’s viewership at the end of last season. The sky was falling in all around us and NASCAR faced a future certain to be as bleak as open wheel racing in the United States. Can you imagine having to PAY to get your sport on TV?
And then finally we saw something at Daytona that has continued for the last 13 weeks – a leveling out of the ratings. When FOX ended their run the week before last, they reported a 16% increase year over year. This past weekend TNT reported flat ratings year over year for Pocono.
Suddenly TV ratings have taken a backseat, and NASCAR is looking OK. I know I’m more concerned about exactly what pieces of jewelry Richard Childress took off before he went to pounding on Kyle Busch.
Sarcasm aside, the ratings increase over last year was bound to occur at least in some instances thanks to the pavement issue at Daytona and the rain outs we experienced through the first 1/3 of the 2010 season. Even with that bit of information though, consider that ratings returned to 2009 levels and saw increases of that key 18-34 male demographic by 20% year over year.
These are all things to feel pretty good about. Especially considering NASCAR’s eight-year $4.8 billion TV deal comes up in 2014.
The fact is, TV ratings like all things are cyclical and are very dependent upon who is playing, who is winning and what the storylines are. With 10 very different winners in 14 races and all the feuds and fighting you can handle, this season has provided plenty of intrigue and interest.
And thanks to that, the ratings have been a non-story, even in their improved state. It’s just not as much fun to talk about when you can’t tie them to the impending apocalypse.
As with every sport, NASCAR is far from perfect and has a long way to go to return to the glory days of the mid-2000s. But things could definitely be worse right now. 8.6 million people are still tuning in every week; we don’t have to worry about collective bargaining agreements or work stoppages; we don’t have Lebron James or any “decisions,” and, for the most part, the personal lives of our athletes don’t play out in tabloids or on front pages.
Best of all though, with ratings in a more stable place we can move on to more important things, like the racing. Here’s hoping this trend continues.
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The top-ten in Sunday’s Cup race was a diverse group. The drivers came from nine different teams, three different countries, all four manufacturers, and they ranged in age from 27 to 40. And your winner? Well, he was doing backflips.
On Saturday, it was an old face in victory lane and a history making moment by a new face (at least in NASCAR) just a few spots back. There was even a fight in the garage on Friday night – too bad there weren’t any photos.
Add to those moments 20-year-old Trevor Bayne winning the Great American race for the sport’s oldest team, and fan favorite Jeff Gordon ending a 66-race winless streak and you have three weeks of fantastic storylines.
NASCAR President Mike Helton agrees saying:
“It’s been entertaining“
NASCAR has a lot of positive momentum right now. That undoubtedly has played some part in the big TV ratings bump (up double digits in each of the last three weeks) and sellout crowds. And with the backdrop of the “Millionaires vs. Billionaires” fight in the NFL and lockout fears in the NBA, NASCAR’s looking pretty good right now.
The fact is, the product is as good as it’s ever been. Races are close, the competition is close and the personalities have made it all pretty entertaining. And wouldn’t you know it, good storylines and good numbers all mean a more positive atmosphere throughout the sport. People are feeling good about the 2011 season.
Even with all the positive feelings there is a bit of apprehension given what everyone has been through for the last several seasons. After all, we’re just three positive weeks in to years of tough times.
“The energy around [the sport] feels good,” Helton said. “The numbers are supporting it, but you don’t want to get too comfortable too quick. You certainly hope that things continue to progress.“
Not helping matters though is this off week for the Cup and Nationwide Series. Fox isn’t happy about it – and you better believe with this momentum NASCAR isn’t too thrilled with it either.
Still, while the season is young and I’ll admit it’s a little early to be calling a turn around, I’m cautiously optimistic – what we’ve seen so far is a very good place to start.
The way the media, TV executives and even NASCAR executives spoke at the end of the season, you would have thought the world was crashing in on us. Every week there were stories of 20% and 25% ratings declines on ESPN. Everyone with a platform to do so was asking why people we’re tuning out in droves. It didn’t make sense. And ESPN stood firm that the move from ABC to the cable network shouldn’t make a difference. That surely couldn’t have contributed. Or could it?
Consider this:
The Rose Bowl’s move to cable drew ESPN’s highest preliminary rating for a non-NFL game. TCU’s 21-19 win over Wisconsin on Saturday earned an 11.7 overnight rating, down 15 percent from the 13.8 for Ohio State-Oregon on ABC last year.
The Rose Bowl’s move to cable drew ESPN’s highest preliminary rating for a non-NFL game.
TCU’s 21-19 win over Wisconsin on Saturday earned an 11.7 overnight rating, down 15 percent from the 13.8 for Ohio State-Oregon on ABC last year.
That’s strange. The highest preliminary rating for a non-NFL game, but still down 15 percent from the network (it’s the lowest overnight rating for the Rose Bowl since 2003)? I wonder what happened? Perhaps it’s that the audience for ESPN is smaller than ABC? And wouldn’t you know it:
ESPN is available in about 13 percent fewer homes than ABC.
Those numbers (15% and 13%) sure match up well. As a side note, it’s worth noting ESPN/ABCs only NASCAR ratings increase this season was a race that was moved from ESPN to ABC – Bristol.
There are many out there who have worked to debunk the effect of moving sports from the networks to cable (I apologize for not being able to find one of the articles right now). And there may be some good arguments, but for whatever reason the evidence continues not to support it – or maybe people don’t like watching sports on cable as much as on the networks.
Now obviously ratings were probably still down this season for NASCAR on ESPN. But it makes a little more sense that the ESPN declines were more in line with the other broadcast networks. 10-12% is a lot better, and a lot easier to understand, than a sudden 20-27% decline.
While there certainly is a story to be told about ratings declines, I continue to believe the anomalous numbers we saw with ESPN had to do more with the move than with the product. If the audience information is excluded, the year-over-year numbers absolutely look worse than they are.
I know this is going to continue to be a popular storyline in 2011 – and let’s be honest, it will be a storyline until they bottom out – it’s my hope though that this storyline and others can be reported with more clarity and candor in 2011. While NASCAR does have its issues, let’s keep in perspective this is still the second most watched sport in America.
I’m talking to all of you who have become so angry and frustrated with NASCAR that you’ve vowed to no longer spend money on attending races or even watch on TV. There should be plenty of you out there, as it seems there has been quite a bit to be angry about this year. And the recent penalty/appeal denial for Clint Bowyer and RCR seems to have created even more. So if you fit in this crowd, read on, because I have a question for you.
Let’s say you live moderately close to a race track that currently hosts a Cup Series date. You live so close in fact, that to attend a race there, you wouldn’t need to spend money on any major travel or hotel rooms. You can literally just stay at your own house. And let’s also say the Cup Series is coming to town this weekend. So with all your anger and frustration, and the ability to use the economy as another excuse, you decide you won’t be attending. Screw NASCAR…
Now, what if this race track called you up and said “hey, we just want a good crowd this weekend, and we don’t care that you can’t pay. We will give you X number of tickets for free so both you and your family can attend the race.” Would you go?
If it was going to cost you nothing but your time, could you put aside your bad feelings towards the sport as whole, and just go enjoy a day at the race?
This scenario popped into my head this week as I listened to sports radio and read sports writers who talked about the recent ticket issue with the Tampa Bay Rays. In case you aren’t aware, the Rays were only able to draw a crowd of 12,000 a few nights ago, and they are in the thick of the playoff race. The question being raised, was what does it take to get fans to come out, if a winning team in a playoff race isn’t good enough?
Obviously attendance has been a big issue this season. Many races, including last week at Dover, have seen far lower attendance than they did in recent years. And I’m wondering if it’s really a money issue for people, or if it really is because people are so disenchanted with NASCAR that they would rather do something else with a Sunday then enjoy a race.
It seems many tracks have slashed ticket and food prices, and many are working with local establishments to lower prices on things like hotel rooms. Many are also offering unique fan experiences like pre and post race concerts, and even giveaways. But for some, it doesn’t seem to matter.
So I’m curious. Have you forgotten how much fun it is to go to a race? To camp out all week in the infield at Talladega and party like crazy; to head down to pit road on race morning and be among the crews while they prepare; to walk amongst the souvenir trailers and try to decide if you really need a fifth Kasey Kahne hat; to get chills at the end of the National Anthem when the fly-by jets scream over; to debate with your buddy the pit call that Bob Osborne just called out over the scanner; and to cheer like hell when the field comes out of turn four for the green flag. Do the perceived problems that NASCAR has really outweigh all of that?
As we head off to Kansas this week, I will leave you with only my initial question. If it didn’t cost you a dime, would you go?
In a world where perception is everything, ratings and attendance have become big topics of discussion among NASCAR fans and insiders. Ratings in particular have been of interest to those in control of the sport. But the picture on that front is less than clear. With fluctuating numbers and ratings looking better from the top-down who knows what’s going on in NASCAR’s national series.
As has been talked about this week and last, the ratings for the last two Cup races have been down – way down. According to Nielsen, ratings at New Hampshire were down 28 percent and at Dover 22 percent year-over-year. It’s the apocalypse, right? Well maybe not.
Something no one has really been talking about is that the races in previous years were on ABC (a network channel where one would assume there is a larger audience), not ESPN. TC talked with our friend John Daly over at the Daly Planet and he thinks this isn’t an issue – he thinks the product is the problem. To some extent I think he’s probably right. It’s hard to reconcile though why ratings have suddenly been down quite so much in the Cup Series.
Consider this: before New Hampshire there were slight declines for the races at Richmond (on ABC this year and last) and Atlanta (on ESPN this year and last). At Bristol though the race was shown on ABC this year, a change from ESPN in years prior. The race actually saw a ratings increase year-over-year. Is that because it was on network TV instead of cable? I tend to think that’s possible, if not likely.
Even though these last two weeks look to me like anomalies, it is true ratings as a whole have been down again this season in the Cup Series. Why exactly that is, is hard to say. This isn’t the case across the board though.
With fan discontent churning, you’d expect to see declines everywhere. It’s not happening though. The ratings in the Nationwide Series have been flat year-over-year – this despite it being a series dominated by Cup regulars.
Even more interesting though is the case of the Truck Series which has actually seen an overall ratings increase over the summer after taking hits early on because of rain delays. This is occurring despite the fact there are only five to 10 competitive trucks on a weekly basis.
Now obviously there are overall audience disparities between the three series, but I still have to wonder why the two lower series are growing, or at the very least maintaining their audiences when their larger counterpart is not. Is it the politics? Is it the personalities? Are races too long? Has the Cup Series just become overexposed? Is there an increasing number of ‘avid fans’ looking for more racing? Is the racing better? Is the coverage better? I unfortunately have far more questions than answers.
Even with the pre-race show, watching a Truck race on Speed really has the feel of Cup Series broadcast 15+ years ago. It’s simple, refreshing, and light hearted – plus the races are usually done in a couple of hours. Even the Nationwide Series broadcasts aren’t quite as overdone as the Cup races. I have no idea if this explains the ratings though.
I’ve been watching this top-down trend for a while and I find it fascinating, but don’t have any idea why it’s happening. Maybe you all do?
The last two seasons have been rough for this sport. Sponsors have left, fields have shrank and teams have folded. Mergers became the new name of the game for many fledgling organizations and layoffs plagued the industry. What NASCAR was faced with was a forced correction thanks to a bad economy. As a result the strong just got stronger and the weak generally got a lot weaker.
On top of a weakened economy NASCAR alienated a lot of fans with the introduction of the COT in 2007. The car, with it’s boxy appearance and rear wing, didn’t sit well with a lot of people. Some have argued that it’s hurt the competition. Whether that’s the case or not is open to argument – I know NASCAR would disagree.
To be sure, the last 10 years can be summed up in one word – change. Over the last two seasons though we have seen a sanctioning body more willing to listen and embrace changes everyone can get behind. We saw NASCAR institute double-file restarts, more attempts at G-W-C finishes and the return to the spoiler.
Their recognition that the sport isn’t perfect has benefited everyone. What I’ve seen over the first few weeks of this season is a sport that is more tough, more rough and more exciting.
While we’re far from where we once were, things are starting to look up. The ratings for this season’s races haven’t been all bad – they were up at Phoenix and Atlanta and they performed pretty well against the backdrop of a compelling USA v. Canada hockey game. The rain delay didn’t help at Martinsville, but overall Fox is down around 4%. While down is certainly not good, 4% is better than the 11.5% they were down this time last year. More than growth, NASCAR needs these numbers to stabilize. Hopefully they’re starting to do that.
On the competition side we’ve seen a competitive Earnhardt Ganassi team and an almost renewed Penske Racing team. In seven races we’ve had five different winners from five different teams. Sure Jimmie Johnson has won three races, but maybe he’s peaking early? All I know is, is I’ve seen some great finishes this season.
Like a recession in the economy, it’s going to take time for recovery to take hold and for the effects to be seen. I’m hopeful after a couple of tough seasons we’re starting to see the signs of recovery in NASCAR.
What do you think of the season so far? Have you been enjoying the season? Do you like the changes NASCAR has made? Has the competition been better?
A Happy Belated Birthday!
I’m disappointed TNI readers. It was our birthday on April 7th and no one remembered – me and TC included. Oops.
As we enter our third year on this project I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who comes to the site, reads the posts, and contributes to the conversation. TC and I have enjoyed our time working on this and look forward to the year ahead.
As always if you have any questions, comments and/or concerns please don’t hesitate to get into contact with us. We’re pretty good about emailing people back.
Thanks again to everybody who comes by. We know your time is valuable and we appreciate you make us a part of your day!
For those of you who follow us on Twitter, you know every Monday we do a ‘best and worst’ of the weekend tweet. With the 2009 season now in the bag, we thought it might be fun to bring it over to the blog and ask you to do your best and worst of the 2009 season.
2009 certainly wasn’t short of any interesting, and compelling story lines. Toward the end of 2008 and through the entire 2009 season the economy was on everyone’s mind. The troubled state of GM and Chrysler forced the manufacturers to make cuts in their NASCAR spending; several sponsors announced their intention to leave the sport; and perhaps most noticeably the stands at many tracks were far from capacity.
Despite the bad economy, 2009 saw the start-up of several teams. After being laid-off by Bill Davis Racing in the off season, Tommy Baldwin started his own team. Jeremy Mayfield, who had been out of a full time ride since 2005 also started a team. TRG Motorsports also began running a car full-time in the Cup Series.
From Carl Long to Jeremy Mayfield, NASCAR also had its fair share of controversy in 2009. Long was suspended and fined following the All-Star race after an inspection of his expired engine revealed it was too large. Jeremy Mayfield was indefinitely suspended May 9 after NASCAR said he failed a drug test. Mayfield contends the failed test was caused by a combination of Adderall and Claritin D. He sued NASCAR.
It wasn’t all bad though. Juan Pablo Montoya had a breakthrough season scoring seven top-fives, 18 top-10s, two poles and his first Chase berth. After running two part-time seasons in 2007 and 2008 Mark Martin joined Hendrick Motorsports full time and came back with a vengeance this season, winning five races and finishing second in the points.
We even had some promising prospects show what they were made of. In just his second full season, David Reutimann won his first race and came just short of making the chase. Marcos Ambrose also started to show his potential in just his first full time season. He scored four top-fives and seven top-tens finishing 18th in the points. No doubt they’ll both be teams to watch in 2010.
We also had a slew of first time winners with David Reutimann, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski all taking the checkered flag.
And how about Hendrick Motorsports? They had thirteen wins on the season and Jimmie Johnson did the unheard of, winning his fourth straight championship after seven wins, 16 top-fives, 24 top-tens and four poles. As a team they went 1-2-3 in the standings, the first time that has happened.
So now it’s your turn. What was your best and worst of 2009? Please remember to keep it clean (I know where you’re going to go with this) and treat others the way you want to be treated (if I see anything over the line it will be deleted).
Following Talladega and comments by NASCAR spokesman Ramsey Poston on his blog, there has been a lot of discussion of the coverage of NASCAR races; more importantly how that coverage is shaping the audience’s perception of what they’re seeing.
All I can say is, it’s about time. Earlier this year I took up the topic of NASCAR and perception. No matter your feelings on the state of the sport, it’s undeniable that the color of coverage shapes what people feel.
Dustin Long interviewed Brian France on the issue of TV coverage. He touched on this issue. He said:
“We fully expect a lot of criticism for any number of reasons, judgment calls that are made, officiating calls that are made and some strategy or policy decisions that are made. We’ve always had that. That’s OK. What I’m saying is in opinions that are under the guise of criticism or being critical that just go on and on and on without much thought that’s different from some policy or rule violation that we didn’t handle correctly, somebody is more than fair to criticize us. It’s just there’s an unprecedented level that occurs when you espouse your opinion about how to do one thing or another.”
If you’re truly being honest with yourself, unless you’re out gathering news, where you get your news or in this case your racing coverage, is going to shape how you feel about it. For instance if you watch the local TV station that is big into covering local crime, chances are you’re going to believe crime is higher in your city. Likewise watching Fox News over MSNBC is likely going to shape how you see issues.
How many times in the last two seasons have you heard about ratings declines, or sagging attendance? The fact is attendance is down in the NFL and ratings are down 6% for MLB on ESPN (we’re no worse off than any other sporting event). If you hear something enough (like this race is boring) though you’ll start to believe it, it’s human nature. The sky is falling, the sky is falling!
I personally found the coverage a little much. I doubt the brass at ESPN was thrilled with it. They’re only driving away the audience for programming ESPN’s already paid for.
The NASCAR writer for the Oakland Press wrote a blog post giving kudos to ESPN for standing up to NASCAR. What are they standing up to NASCAR about? At the end of the day they’re only hurting themselves. ESPN is spending $270 million a year or $2.16 billion (from Sports Business Resource Guide) over the life of their contract for the rights to broadcast NASCAR races. Now you tell me, is it in ESPN’s best interest to say, “hey this product we’re broadcasting is really boring?” I don’t think so.
A couple of weeks ago Dustin Long did a wide-ranging interview about the state of the sport with Larry McReynolds, Kyle Petty and Jimmy Spencer. One of their big criticisms was the negativity that comes out of the sport’s media. While I think this was a pot calling the kettle black moment (they went on to criticize the sport pretty heavily) they made a good point.
Larry McReynolds said:
Darrell has put a great analogy. He goes, if you go to a restaurant and you’ve been going to that restaurant for years and you love that restaurant but you constantly read in the paper, it’s a bad restaurant, it’s a bad restaurant. Eventually, you’re going to say, I’m not going to that restaurant. Even if they rehire a complete new chef, staff, you’re still going to be hesitant about going back to that restaurant.
From time to time I like to watch old races and I’ll be honest with you, it really doesn’t look all that different. There aren’t constant battles for the lead, races do sometimes get spread out, and sometimes one car just dominates. The one big difference is you don’t hear Eli Gold or Ken Squier or Bob Jenkins criticizing the product. If you don’t believe me, track down a race from 10 or 15 years ago.
I don’t mean to suggest that NASCAR fans are more susceptible to this. But I do believe that this negativity runs rampant around here; more so than in other sports. When was the last time you were watching an NFL game and heard Joe Buck say how boring it was?
I think just like in every other sport, announcers need to walk a fine line. Criticize the league or sanctioning body for controversial decisions, fine; don’t drive fans off though by criticizing the product.
As we near the end of the season, and what some are already predicting could be a fourth straight championship for Jimmie Johnson, it seems the negative feelings toward driver 48 are growing. Some have even hinted that Johnson’s dominance is to blame for the decline in ratings and attendance recently. The argument is that when one team dominates, it makes the races less interesting to watch. But instead of blaming Johnson and his team for being too good, why aren’t you blaming your favorite driver and team for not being good enough?
I agree that it can suck when one team seems to win everything. But when my favorite college football team isn’t doing well while another is, that doesn’t make me watch less football. The same can be said about my other favorite teams. I’m still going to tune in each week, go to games when I can, and support my team. I don’t understand why the same can’t be said about racing.
We’ve been asked before by fans what exactly the 48 team does differently then everyone else. I think we may even have at least one of those for tomorrow’s “Ask The Insiders Wednesday.” The answer is, that I have no idea. If I did, I’d probably be a rich man. Whatever it is though, it’s working, and you can’t blame Chad Knaus and his guys for doing it right. And instead of getting angry and calling Knaus a cheater, why can’t we take a step back and realize how amazing this run has been? What if Johnson really is that good?
And while we are on the subject of Chad Knaus, how come we hear so often that people want NASCAR to give the teams more freedom in being creative with the cars, yet you get angry when somebody like Knaus pushes the envelope? It is the responsiblity of these teams to push the tolerances to the limit, because that is what it’s going to take to be successful in this age of NASCAR. Like they saying goes, don’t hate the player, hate the game.
You are going to call me a NASCAR homer for saying this, but I don’t care, I’m going to say it anyway. NASCAR is not playing favorites with the 48. As many are starting to get turned off by it, it doesn’t suit NASCAR’s interests to give them some sort of advantage over everyone else. They would be better suited to give Mark Martin or Juan Pablo Montoya the edge, because those would be bigger stories. The black helicopters have been winterized and stored away for the season.
I will agree that some of the debris cautions can be very suspicious, but if NASCAR is really throwing them to affect the race, they are trying to close the fields up for better racing; not to benefit one driver or another. Even Johnson has been the victim of these cautions.
With the Cup Series headed to Martinsville this weekend (one of Johnson’s best tracks) it would appear that his hold on the points lead could grow even further. But as quickly as Johnson has moved to the top, he could just as easily fall. I would caution you in writing off guys like Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, and maybe even a resurgence from JPM. The season is far from over, and if a points lead after five races meant you’d win the championship, the year would be over. But it’s not. We’ve still got five more races to go. Anything can happen. Don’t forget that races are played out on the track, not in statistics or on paper. And ease up off the venom for Jimmie.
Now it’s your turn. Are you becoming turned off by Johnson’ dominance? How come? Do you think one team dominating hurts the sport? Would you feel the same way if it was your favorite driver who was kicking ass? What if it were somebody like Kyle Busch dominating? The floor belongs to you, don’t forget to play nice!