Following the 2008 season, Journo and myself wrote a series of posts that covered all the major teams in the Cup Series. We looked at where they had been in 2008 and where they were going in 2009. The posts contained some predictions for the 2009 season, with some being more specific then others. I thought, since 2009 is in the books, that it would be fun to go back over the posts and see how we fared with our predictions. Listed below you will find all the teams we covered, our predictions, and what actually happened. Enjoy!
Hendrick Motorsports Prediction: All four drivers will be contenders for the 2009 title. Actual:We were right, with one notable exception. Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon finished 1-2-3 in the standings for HMS. But, Dale Earnhardt Jr. struggled all season and finished a disappointing 25th.
Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Prediction:Martin Truex Jr. and Juan Pablo Montoya should win a few races each and both could make the Chase. The jury is still out though on Aric Almirola. Actual: He never won a race, but Montoya did make the Chase and was a factor until late; we missed on Truex though. The Bass Pro Shops team only had one top five finish all season and they finished way down in 23rd in the standings. Almirola did struggle, and ended up only running eight races before the sponsorship money dried up.
Team Red Bull Prediction:Expect Scott Speed to struggle in his rookie season, and a top 30 in points would be a victory. Brian Vickers will finish in the top 15 in points, but the Chase will still be out of reach for this team. Actual: Speed did indeed struggle, and did not qualify for three races. He ended up 35th in driver standings and 36th in owner standings. He will be on the outside looking in for 2010. Vickers did a little better then we expected, with one win and a Chase appearance.
Joe Gibbs Racing Prediction:Denny Hamlin will make the Chase, but isn’t good enough to really contend yet. Kyle Busch will continue being a force and will contend for the Cup. In his rookie season Joey Logano will finish top 25 in the points and show flashes of brilliance. Actual: We were right about Hamlin and Logano, but we missed the call on Busch’s season. Hamlin finished fifth in the final standings, but too many DNFs in the Chase killed his chances at the Cup. Logano won at Loudon and finished 20th in the standings. Busch won four races, but struggled for much of the season and missed the Chase.
Richard Childress Racing Prediction: Jeff Burton will win 1-3 races and make the Chase, but will not be a contender. Clint Bowyer will win 3-5 races and challenge for the Cup. Casey Mears will finish top 20 in points at best. Kevin Harvick will win a couple races, make the Chase, and have an outside shot at the Cup. Actual: RCR was probably our biggest missed prediction. Bowyer, Burton, Harvick and Mears finished 15th, 17th, 19th, and 21st respectively. The whole organization struggled all season and didn’t win a single race.
Stewart-Haas Racing Prediction: Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman will finish top 20 in points, we might see a couple wins between the two teams, but a Chase appearance and title contention are a few years away. Actual:SHR was definitely a pleasant surprise this season. Stewart won four races and finished sixth in the standings. He led the points going into the Chase, but lost his momentum and slipped down the stretch. Newman never found victory lane, but did make the Chase on his consistency and finished ninth.
Penske Racing Prediction: The whole organization will struggle with the exception of maybe Kurt Busch. Actual: Kurt Busch won two races and finished fourth in the Chase. Sam Hornish showed a little promise, but could only manage a 28th place points finish. David Stremme continued his history of lackluster performance and finished 32nd in the standings.
Gillett Evernham Motorsports/Richard Petty Motorsports Prediction: The team won’t improve much over 2008, Kahne and Allmendinger are their greatest hopes. Actual:Kahne won two races and did make the Chase, finishing 10th, but that was the bulk of their success. Allmendinger, Reed Sorenson, and Elliott Sadler all failed to finish inside the top 20 in points.
Roush Fenway Racing Prediction: Carl Edwards will be dominant and could be the leading contender for the championship. Matt Kenseth will win 1-2 races and make the Chase. Greg Biffle will also win a race or two and make the Chase, but will not be a serious contender for the title. David Ragan and Jamie McMurray should improve over 2008 but neither will contend or make the Chase. Actual: Edwards was a miss, as he failed to win a race and was never really a factor in the Chase. Kenseth did win two races, but just missed making the Chase. Biffle also went winless, but did make the Chase, finishing seventh. Ragan and McMurray had disappointing seasons, but McMurray did find victory lane at Talladega.
Yates Racing Prediction: Travis Kvapil and Paul Menard will continue to struggle. Bobby Labonte could surprise, but past history doesn’t bode well for him. Actual: Kvapil ended up only running the first five races before his team was shut down due to lack of funding. Menard didn’t earn a top five or top ten all season and finished 31st in the points. Labonte did manage one top five finish, but ended up 30th in the driver standings and was replaced in the #96 late in the season by Erik Darnell.
Michael Waltrip Racing Prediction: David Reutimann should continue to improve, but expect Michael Waltrip to hang up his driving gloves after 2009. Actual: Reutimann did indeed improve in 2009, and collected a win, five top five, and ten top ten finishes. His team nearly made the Chase, but they faded late in the season and finished 16th in the standings. Waltrip’s struggles continued and a 33rd place points finish will see him run only a part time schedule in 2010.
Robby Gordon Motorsports Prediction: Expect more of the same from Robby Gordon, a good finish here and there is the best he’ll do. Actual: Gordon struggled most of the season, and only mustered a 34th place points finish. He did finish third in the rain shortened Coke 600 though.
And then there were three. Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead are the last remaining races on the 2009 schedule before we put it in the record books. But before we start the home stretch, we’ve got more of your questions and our somewhat educated answers. If you don’t know what this post is, until further notice, we will be answering any and all reader questions every Wednesday, right here. So if you’ve got one, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send one to us. On to the questions…
Just a quick follow up from a few weeks back, we were asked what Michael “Fatback” McSwain was up to these days. We have confirmed that he is running an auto repair shop in Dallas, NC. – T.C.
1. From Kenny:
Do you think some drivers might intentionally spin out just to get screen time for their advertisers? I’m thinking about Robby Gordon here, because he seems to bring out a yellow at least once during every race.
While I don’t think this is going on (if it is Robby is doing a very bad job of it because Jim Beam is leaving at the end of the season), anything is possible. One thing to remember though, is if you’re a company sponsoring a lesser team you go into it knowing that you’re not going to get a lot of TV time. These sponsorships are much larger marketing efforts (that can be said for any team). If they just wanted TV time it would be a lot cheaper to buy TV advertisements. – Journo
2. From Ross:
T.C.: It’s probable that someone on the blog has ripped your driver. Does that make you cringe a bit when you read it?
Nope, everyone is entitled to their opinions. I know how things really are with my driver, so outside talk doesn’t bother me. Besides, maybe we’ve ripped my driver on here too… – T.C.
3. From Bobby#7Fan:
What is the deal with NASCAR giving AJ a breath test before practice Friday? It seems to me it’s just a way to embarrass him. Did they really think he was throwing back shots before getting into the car? I saw Tony Stewart scratch his ass before practice once, did they check him for hemorrhoids?
I’ll be honest with you, I was in favor of NASCAR suspending him, but I thought the breathalyzer was over the top. I really don’t know what the purpose of it was. It was a little press for them, but it really only served to add to AJ’s embarrassment. – Journo
4. From AJ:
I don’t know how to ask this in a question but has a superstar from the Nationwide series ever gone on to win the Cup? Two sets of drivers come to mind for me, Matt Kenseth and Jr, and Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer. Both Jr’s were 2 time nationwide champs, but it was the runner ups Matt and Clint that have gone on to preform better on the Cup level. Same for JJ and Stewart, they never really got their barring in the lower level and it wasn’t until they came to Cup that they excelled in stock cars.
Are you asking if any former “Nationwide” champions (before they went to Cup) have gone on to great success in the Cup Series? Ned Jarrett was a Sportsman Division champion and Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle were all Busch Series champions. It’s an interesting point and one I’ve never really thought about. As of now I guess it really isn’t a great indicator of success in the Cup Series. – Journo
5. From Mike:
Since this week was an impound race many cars and most go or go home cars were probably still on some kind of qualifying setup. Since you know it was probably going to be cancelled can you adjust them back to race trim or is there a stop work time? On a normal week can’t you work on it until right before it goes on the track?
Qualifying trim for an impound race is really only a taped up grill, pumped up air pressures, and some other small adjustments. Once qualifying is cancelled, NASCAR allows the teams to make final adjustments, which includes taking the car out of qualifying “trim.” On a normal, non-impound weekend, teams can work on the cars right up until they need to be in line for pre-race inspection on race morning. – T.C.
6. From Lost In Texas:
The firing of the #18 crew chief is bothering me. Can either of you lend some insight into how something like that happens. How much did Kyle have to say about it? Sure would to be a fly on the all at JGR.
I would say the situation differs from team to team. Some drivers have more say about these situations than others. Look at Juan Pablo Montoya. He had three different crew chiefs last season, and I can tell you he wasn’t happy about any of the changes. I honestly can’t tell you internally what the conversation was at JGR, but I’d guess there were pretty lengthy discussions between Jimmy Makar and the Gibbs’. I’m a little skeptical of this move too, but they must think this situation will be better. – Journo
7. From Ric:
I have noticed that some over the wall people wear 1 piece suits, others wear two piece suits. Who decides what you wear? What is the pro / con of both of them? Is there another type?
Some teams decide which kind they want their guys to wear, but in many cases it’s just a preference thing. Often times when Simpson, Impact, or whoever is making the firesuits does their fittings with the crew guys, they will ask what your preference is. I’m not really sure of pros vs. cons, it’s really just what a guy thinks is most comfortable. There is also a three piece, which is pants, a top, and then a vest that goes over the top. – T.C.
8. From Ric:
I noticed on the back bumper about middle to right of the car either a cover (guessing about 3?X3?), or something sticking out slightly from the car. What is this?
This is where they put the rear facing on board cameras. If the car is carrying it, the camera is mounted there, and if it isn’t carrying one the hole is just covered. – T.C.
And that brings yet another “Ask The Insiders Wednesday” to a close. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions. And remember, if you’d like to be a part of next week, click on the ”Ask the Insiders” tab at the top of the page and send your question in!
So I returned from another busy weekend of racing to discover (thanks to the Internet) what many in the NASCAR media have been fronting for weeks; that all of NASCAR is finally starting to implode! OH MY GOD! WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE! SAVE YOURSELVES! EVERYBODY PANIC!!!
A quick look around the Internet today and you would have seen the following headlines: RCR is dropping to two teams, Kasey Kahne will be in a Toyota by August, Toyota is pulling their support from the NNS and CWTS, Red Bull is leaving Toyota, and there could be spec engines coming to the NNS and CWTS.
Whew! That’s some scary stuff. Until you actually read what was said by the important people.
Richard Childress actually said he plans on having four teams next year, but some sponsorship stuff is still up in the air. The Shell and Jack Daniels deals need to be renewed, but even if they aren’t, it’s not necessarily the end of the line for the #29 and #07 teams.
Lee White (head of TRD Operations) denied the Kasey Kahne rumor, but even if he’s lying, there are too many moving parts here. Something smells fishy. Why would an organization build Toyota’s for one team, and Dodge’s for the other three? I know the COTs are similar, but there are some differences. I’m just not seeing the logic here.
Also, while a cutback may be coming for next season, Toyota has no plans to change its involvement in the NNS and NCWTS for 2009. And it appears that only Detroit is interested in the spec engine program, as the story itself says NASCAR executives have shown little interest.
And finally, I don’t understand why Red Bull would walk away from Toyota and its funding to self fund a Chevrolet alliance through Hendrick Motorsports. Red Bull’s problems have less to do with Toyota and more to do with what is going on inside Red Bull. Getting Hendrick horsepower isn’t going to solve that, and it’s going to cost them some serious coin to switch.
So, now that we know the world isn’t ending, can somebody please tell me what the hell is going on? Maybe we are part of the problem (feel free to say if we are), but I feel like a lot of these Internet writers are trying to either fabricate a silly season or scare people out of their minds.
Comparing the last few years, this season has been pretty light on free agent rumblings (sans Martin Truex Jr.), and the economy continues to be a major factor in the future of many teams, but these “almost” stories are crazy. I understand that some of these sites depend on big traffic numbers, but creating a story where there is no story seems wrong.
And this might not be a new thing, but I don’t know when it became news for somebody like Tony Stewart to come out and say that if the situation were right, he’d add a third team for next year. Couldn’t you really say that about every team?
”This just in: Robby Gordon may be a four car team in 2010 if three funded drivers approach him before February.”
Gimme a break.
Is the sport struggling some? Yes. Are the manufacturer cutbacks going to hurt the teams? Yes. Is it tougher then ever to find sponsors? Yes. Are teams going to have to get creative to fight through this tough time? Yes. Are we going to lose a few teams? Yes.
But, even though many will try and convince you otherwise, is the end near? No.