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Sunday’s race at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, dominated by fuel mileage, mistakes, and both Stewart Haas cars continued what has been a season of parity and added another contender to the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Ryan Newman’s victory made him the 13th different winner after 19 races this season and gave him a one spot boost in the points. Perhaps more importantly, it gave Newman a win, further strengthening his chances at a spot in the Chase.
Past the halfway point of the season and with just seven races to go until the Chase begins, who gets in is still very fluid. At the top, Carl Edwards retook the points lead from Kyle Busch after Busch cut down a tire early on, and Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch made up spots. At the bottom, Dale Earnhardt Jr. lost one spot to ninth, while David Ragan and Kasey Kahne picked up two and three spots respectively to 13th and 14th (Kahne and Greg Biffle each have 523 points). Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin both have 570 points in 10th and 11th.
With wins being the ticket to the Chase outside the top-ten, there are currently four drivers who fit the bill and have been to victory lane – David Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne. Of those four, two have a realistic shot of making it into the requisite top-20.
The first of those two, David Ragan, is in good shape with his 13th place points position, but Brad Keselowski sits 23rd in the points – losing two spots this weekend. If Keselowski hopes to compete for a championship this year, he’s going to have to make up some ground – lucky for him there are only 95 points separating 23rd from 12th. With a good run over the next seven races that is certainly surmountable.
Competing with those two are the other chasers without a win, and those within the top-20 without a win. Considering the amount of parity there has been this season who makes it and who doesn’t is still wide open.
So what do you think? Who makes the Chase, who doesn’t? Feel free to sound off on the Championship Chase and the race at New Hampshire.
With the announcement last week that Red Bull was ceasing its NASCAR operations at the end of the season, the 2011 Silly Season went into full overdrive. While the number of available rides just potentially got cut by one, the number of unanswered questions increased. Can Red Bull find investors? What will Brian Vickers do next season?
Along with those unanswered questions about Red Bull are the drivers and teams who find themselves without a solid deal for 2012. Still what are the realistic opportunities for movement before next season.
Carl Edwards is in the final year of his deal with Roush Fenway Racing and easily finds himself as the hottest prospect. He’s the current points leader and a 19-time winner in the Cup Series.
Edwards has been the subject of a rumored move to Joe Gibbs Racing. While a fourth car at Gibbs is the best option available to Edwards, is it really better than his current position with Roush Fenway? I think, at best, it represents a lateral move for the driver.
The rumors of an Edwards to Gibbs move no doubt came from either Gibbs or Edwards – either way it strengthens Edward’s negotiating position at Roush, which, I think, was the purpose of the rumors. We’ll see what happens, but I think the driver will more than likely stay where he is; despite his potential to bring money wherever he goes.
Clint Bowyer is in the final year of his contract with Richard Childress Racing and has been the subject of a rumored move to Red Bull Racing (that is, before Red Bull announced they were leaving the sport). Bowyer has had success at RCR but has played second fiddle to Kevin Harvick. With a move to Red Bull now out of the question, Bowyer is also very likely to stay where he is.
Brian Vickers finds himself in a worse position than the other two drivers mentioned. He has been with Red Bull Racing since the team began in 2006, leaving Hendrick Motorsports for the opportunity. With a severe lack of opportunities, he doesn’t have many better options but to stick it out with Red Bull and hope Jay Frye can put together investors capable of keeping the team alive.
Mark Martin is a man toward the end of his career who is not ready to end his career. With Kasey Kahne moving into Martin’s spot at Hendrick Motorsports when Martin’s contract ends at the end of the year, Martin is a wild card. Excluding unsubstantiated rumors that he would be investing in Red Bull Racing, Martin’s future remains very murky. He and Jay Frye have a relationship from Martin’s time at Ginn Racing and it wouldn’t be surprising, if Frye can put the investors together, that Martin ends up in a Frye car. We’ll see what happens, but that may be the only Cup opportunity available to the 52-year-old driver.
Danica Patrick, while maybe not the most sought after driver, is perhaps the most intriguing driver of this Silly Season. She is in the final year of her deals with Andretti Autosport in the IndyCar Series and JR Motorsports in the Nationwide Series and brings with her big sponsorship and endorsement deals. Her realistic available opportunities include a continued role at JR Motorsports and perhaps a third team at Stewart Haas Motorsports. Both are of course contingent upon the money she brings, but she can no doubt bring the money. We’ll see if she brings her talents to NASCAR.
What are your thoughts on the current Silly Season, these drivers and others? Where do you think these drivers will end up? Talk amongst yourselves.
We entered this season with a lot of great drivers at the end of their contracts. Among them were Greg Biffle, Brian Vickers, Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer. Biffle has already re-signed with Roush Fenway, but the other three are still without contracts for next year and beyond.
While they hold out to weigh their options, I suspect they’re not finding a whole lot out there. The issue isn’t whether there are seats available but if there are seats available that improve upon the drivers’ current situations.
The prospect of a fourth car at Gibbs, and a third car at Penske and maybe even Ganassi or Stewart Haas exists; all though are very dependent on sponsorship. And while a big name driver helps in securing that all important support, there are no guarantees.
Another option is Red Bull Racing that, at the moment, doesn’t have a single driver signed up for 2012. The problem with this team though is that its performance doesn’t come close to matching that of rival organizations. It’s very much a downgrade for top prospects Edwards and Bowyer.
Even with Gibbs, Penske et al., the best Bowyer and Edwards can hope for is a lateral move (which is why neither will go anywhere). They’re both currently driving for two of the top teams in the sport. Vickers can look around, but I doubt he’ll find any opportunities for improvement.
For Edwards, his is very much the A-team at Roush. Though he has been looking, is he going to improve upon that position somewhere else? I doubt it.
While Edwards and anyone else who may be playing the field might not be going anywhere, what talking to others does do is improve their position with their current teams. Create demand for yourself and you’ll get what you want. I’m sure it will work beautifully for Edwards.
So the long and short is, if you’re looking to move, lots of luck this year. There are no dominos to fall and no blatantly open rides to fall into. It’s just not a good year to be a free agent in NASCAR.
With all the discussion surrounding Kasey Kahne, and the 2011 Hendrick plan for him, I’ve begun to wonder whether this was Kasey’s best move. I say this not because Hendrick isn’t a great team – they most certainly are. And not because Kasey can’t succeed at Hendrick – I think he most certainly can. I say this because of the time he will inevitably lose as he makes the transition to the team’s #5 car.
Speculation has been rampant about where Kasey would end up next season since he and the team announced their partnership earlier this season. Hendrick Motorsports is currently at NASCAR’s four-car limit. The list of unsubstantiated candidates now includes Phoenix Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart-Haas, for it’s part, says it currently has no plans to expand to three cars for the 2011 season.
Whatever happens it can be assured that Kasey will have a ride next season – top-tier team or not.
Where does this leave Kasey though? He’s in the final year of his deal with Richard Petty Motorsports, and has already announced his intention to leave. I know it’s a little premature, but this year can probably be considered a loss for Kahne (see Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr.). Then what about next year?
Let’s say for example purposes Kahne ends up at Phoenix Racing (I’m not saying he will). He’ll of course have all of his equipment built at Hendrick, full sponsorship and all the backing of Rick Hendrick. What will his crew look like? Who knows who they’re looking at, or want for a crew chief, but it’s Hendrick so for all intents and purposes let’s say they promote from within. From there, the crew will likely be composed of Phoenix Racing guys.
So Kasey does this for 2011 (with Phoenix or someone else). At the end of the season what do they do with this team? Does Alan Gustafson become Kasey’s crew chief for 2012? Do they keep the one he’s got? Whatever they do, Kasey is likely going to have to make yet another transition into the 2012 season.
So in addition to this year, Kahne stands to lose the next two seasons trying to adapt to separate teams.
I know Rick Hendrick and team Hendrick Motorsports have nothing but the best of intentions for Kasey moving forward. And I would imagine they’re working very hard to make sure these transitions the driver is about to face are as painless as possible. The issue at hand though could be very bumpy.
I know it’s really easy to play Monday morning quarterback on this (and on anything), but do you think Kasey should have waited to see if he could put a deal together at Gibbs (team Gibbs was interested, but was unable to commit), or somewhere else that he could have immediately transitioned him into a permanent ride?
In a sport where chemistry and consistency are key, I’m kind of thinking he should have waited. For me, the end payoff (that is getting the #5 car) may not be worth the cost of the next couple of seasons. All that said, Hendrick of course hasn’t done anything and gets the benefit of the doubt here.
So what do you think of Kasey’s move? Was Hendrick the right place for him to go? Would you have liked to see him go somewhere else? Where do you think he’ll end up next season? Discuss away!