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This past weekend at Texas Tony Stewart notched his fourth win in the Chase – it was an impressive feat considering that prior to the first Chase race in Chicago it had been 32 races since he’d last seen victory lane. Despite the late string of success, Stewart still finds himself second in the championship points standings. For some that’s inexplicable.
This fundamental question of what’s more important in the push to a championship is something that’s dogged NASCAR and motorsports for a long time. Do we want a champion who the had the best overall Chase, or the one who had the most wins? Often times they are not one and the same.
NASCAR, prior to this season, retooled the points in an effort to simplify and put slightly more emphasis on winning. The new system gave three extra points to the top finisher in addition to another point for leading a lap. NASCAR also gave the two teams outside of the top-10 but inside the top-20 with the most wins berths in the Chase.
The result of the points changes, while certainly an improvement and much easier to understand has been pretty insignificant this season. But is that a bad thing?
Championship success in NASCAR unlike other sports is not and never has been solely based on winning. It’s of course important, but consistency and good finishes are often the key. Consider Carl Edwards has an average finish of 9.7 on the season, with one win, and 5.6 in the Chase with no wins. Tony Stewart on the other hand is averaging a finish of 12.6 on the season and 7.3 in Chase. For Stewart that includes those four wins.
Carl has without a doubt put together the better, more consistent season. He’s even put together the better, more consistent Chase. And that’s why he finds himself leading the points.
I’ve always been of the belief that the best team should win the championship no matter how it gets there. In this case I want the team with the best Chase performance to win it all. Whether that means the championship winning team has the most wins or the most number of better finishes.
So what do you think should get the emphasis? Consistency? Or wins? Does NASCAR need to restructure the points again? Should Tony Stewart be leading the points?
For Tony Stewart, Saturday night’s Cup race at Bristol was one to forget. After qualifying a dismal 42nd, Stewart rode around in the back all night and finished 28th. He was never higher than 28th on the leaderboard, and of the drivers that ran the entire race, Stewart had the seventh worst driver rating. It was his second finish outside the top 25 in his last three races. Smoke’s performance was almost surreal to witness, as watching the Office Depot Chevy fall three laps down in a race simply because it was too slow is not something we are used to seeing. Remarkably, Stewart is still clinging to the last spot into the Chase, but 2011 could go down in history as the worst of his career.
Through 24 races this season, Stewart has only two top five and nine top ten finishes. His average finish to this point (15.0) is the worst of his Cup career, and he remains winless. Keep in mind that Stewart has never had a winless Cup season in his career. He’s won as few as one and as many as six races every year going back to his rookie year in 1999.
With twelve races remaining, Stewart certainly has plenty of time to turn his year around. Smoke is known for being a much stronger competitor during the second half of the season and he’s got three career wins each at Atlanta and Richmond (our next two races). But as frustration mounts, especially with teammate Ryan Newman getting hot (five top tens in the last seven races), don’t expect Stewart to remain patient. This season’s dismissal of competition director Bobby Hutchens showed SHR isn’t afraid to make changes, and more are not out of the question.
Plenty of other notable drivers have struggled this season (see Jeff Burton), and I’m sure all would gladly trade places with Tony Stewart and his current hold on tenth place. But when expectations are as high as their are for Stewart, tenth place just isn’t good enough.
As rumors have started to float around about where Carl Edwards could end up for 2012 and beyond, we asked our Twitter (@nascarinsider) followers last week if they’d be surprised if he left Roush Fenway Racing. The answers were pretty mixed, but our question seemed to spawn another question from many: where would he go? There are certainly going to be plenty of options, and it sounds as though he’s going to take all the time he needs to make a choice.
As Edwards begins to explore his options, lets take a look at where he could realistically end up. Outside of the RFR/Richard Petty Motorsports bubble, Hendrick and RCR are out, because they have signed drivers and no room to expand. Of the upper tier teams, that leaves the likes of Penske Racing, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, Red Bull Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing, and Stewart-Haas Racing. All either have drivers leaving, the ability to expand, or both.
In Edwards position, I’m not convinced that if he does actually leave RFR, it will be about money. The driver who serves as his own agent is already making some serious coin in his current spot, and the current economic climate may limit his earning potential somewhat. I’ve got to believe that Edwards wants to be where he has the best chance to win races and ultimately, championships.
Of the available teams, I’m not sure the argument could be made that any of them provide Edwards with a better situation than does Roush Fenway. A possible fourth team at JGR would probably be the closest option, but they’ve had their struggles in this young season and would he really gel as a teammate to Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch?
Another curious option is Red Bull. Owner Dietrich Mateschitz has the seriously deep pockets needed to bring in a driver like Edwards and they will be looking to replace the departing Kasey Kahne. But barring some sort of dramatic turn around, RBR doesn’t yet have the competitive pedigree necessary to attract a driver like Edwards.
Edwards’ recent comments to ESPN about not being in a hurry to get a deal done probably isn’t a great sign for RFR. With the future of his career at a serious crossroads however, it’s hard to blame Edwards for taking some time to explore all of his options. The question still remains though, would he really leave Roush?
Filed under: Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Sprint Cup, Stewart-Haas Racing, NASCAR
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With all the discussion surrounding Kasey Kahne, and the 2011 Hendrick plan for him, I’ve begun to wonder whether this was Kasey’s best move. I say this not because Hendrick isn’t a great team – they most certainly are. And not because Kasey can’t succeed at Hendrick – I think he most certainly can. I say this because of the time he will inevitably lose as he makes the transition to the team’s #5 car.
Speculation has been rampant about where Kasey would end up next season since he and the team announced their partnership earlier this season. Hendrick Motorsports is currently at NASCAR’s four-car limit. The list of unsubstantiated candidates now includes Phoenix Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart-Haas, for it’s part, says it currently has no plans to expand to three cars for the 2011 season.
Whatever happens it can be assured that Kasey will have a ride next season – top-tier team or not.
Where does this leave Kasey though? He’s in the final year of his deal with Richard Petty Motorsports, and has already announced his intention to leave. I know it’s a little premature, but this year can probably be considered a loss for Kahne (see Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr.). Then what about next year?
Let’s say for example purposes Kahne ends up at Phoenix Racing (I’m not saying he will). He’ll of course have all of his equipment built at Hendrick, full sponsorship and all the backing of Rick Hendrick. What will his crew look like? Who knows who they’re looking at, or want for a crew chief, but it’s Hendrick so for all intents and purposes let’s say they promote from within. From there, the crew will likely be composed of Phoenix Racing guys.
So Kasey does this for 2011 (with Phoenix or someone else). At the end of the season what do they do with this team? Does Alan Gustafson become Kasey’s crew chief for 2012? Do they keep the one he’s got? Whatever they do, Kasey is likely going to have to make yet another transition into the 2012 season.
So in addition to this year, Kahne stands to lose the next two seasons trying to adapt to separate teams.
I know Rick Hendrick and team Hendrick Motorsports have nothing but the best of intentions for Kasey moving forward. And I would imagine they’re working very hard to make sure these transitions the driver is about to face are as painless as possible. The issue at hand though could be very bumpy.
I know it’s really easy to play Monday morning quarterback on this (and on anything), but do you think Kasey should have waited to see if he could put a deal together at Gibbs (team Gibbs was interested, but was unable to commit), or somewhere else that he could have immediately transitioned him into a permanent ride?
In a sport where chemistry and consistency are key, I’m kind of thinking he should have waited. For me, the end payoff (that is getting the #5 car) may not be worth the cost of the next couple of seasons. All that said, Hendrick of course hasn’t done anything and gets the benefit of the doubt here.
So what do you think of Kasey’s move? Was Hendrick the right place for him to go? Would you have liked to see him go somewhere else? Where do you think he’ll end up next season? Discuss away!
Isn’t it funny how things work out? Just a few short days after Shell announces it is leaving Richard Childress Racing and Kevin Harvick following this season for Penske Racing and Kurt Busch, Harvick goes out and wins in dramatic fashion at Talladega. I swear, sometimes truth is stranger then fiction. The win will no doubt add fuel to the debate about where Harvick will end up next season. During a press conference on Friday at Talladega, Harvick said he’d be with a Chevrolet team next season, but didn’t go any further. So the question remains, where will he drive in 2011?
Late in 2009, it appeared that Harvick was attempting to get out of his contract with RCR so he could bolt for Stewart-Haas Racing. The thought was that he would leave and take long time sponsor Shell/Pennzoil with him to SHR, allowing Tony Stewart and Co. to start a third team. No such situation ever materialized though, and Childress held Harvick and Shell to their deals through 2010.
Between Harvick’s relationship with Stewart and the possible defection last season, many people have been left wondering if Harvick might still end up at SHR. The major road block for Harvick at SHR might now come in the form of Kasey Kahne. After he announced his deal to drive for Hendrick Motorsports starting in 2012, many have speculated that either he or Mark Martin could drive a third car for SHR next season. SHR has strong ties to Hendrick, and this deal would allow Stewart and Gene Haas to start their third team on Mr. H’s dime. Harvick now appears to not have a sponsor in his back pocket, and even if he did, Stewart may still be hesitant about bringing him on. SHR Competition Director Bobby Hutchens told Yahoo! Sports’ Jay Hart last week that their chances of expanding to a third team for 2011 are 50-50. So if that’s true, the chances of expanding to a fourth team for Harvick are probably even worse.
The only other major Chevrolet player in the garage area that could take on another team is Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. EGR presents an interesting opportunity, but considering they may have sponsor trouble for the #1 team after this season, they may not be looking to add a third team.
The only other option for Harvick that has been floated, is for him to take his current Nationwide/Truck team, Kevin Harvick Inc., and expand into the Cup Series. With the infrastructure in place at KHI, this could certainly be feasible, but it would be very difficult for Harvick to remain competitive against the super teams as a one car operation. An alignment with Childress or Hendrick would help considerably, but it wouldn’t guarantee success.
All of these reasons lead me to believe that Harvick’s options for 2011 might be very limited. In fact, he may only have once or two choices. The major hurdles that Harvick faces in trying to find a ride and/or sponsor for the future are his age, and his performance. Harvick is 34 years old and he’s not getting any younger. He’s trying to compete against kids that are much younger then he is, and who are often more appealing to sponsors. On top of that, Sunday’s win at Talladega was the first points paying win for Harvick in over two years, going back to the 2007 Daytona 500. His performance this season has been much improved over 2009, but he must continue to improve to be valuable.
So what is my prediction for Harvick and his future? I honestly think he finds a way to stay at RCR. It’s his best chance for success, and he will have both the Childress folks and his own working hard to find sponsorship. It would be a surprise to me to see him drive for anyone other then the only owner he’s every known.
We’re Kind Of A Big Deal… I just wanted to take a quick second to point out a big moment for us that happened on Sunday during the Cup race. Mike Joy, from the NASCAR on FOX team, mentioned our site and a post I did last week about double duty crews during the race broadcast. I wanted to give a HUGE thanks to Mike for doing that, as we know he’s been a reader of ours for some time. You’re the man! I also wanted to say welcome to any new folks that may have stopped by because of the mention. Take a look around the site and feel free to comment, ask questions, and hang out!
It’s happened before. And it will happen again. Something goes horribly wrong on pit road, and a guy gets hurt. Nobody wants to see it happen, but we all know it’s a possibility. In the event it does happen though, the teams have realized they need some sort of insurance policy.
For race teams, gone are the days when mechanics would be plucked out of the shop and thrown out onto pit road to service the car during the race. If you read us regularly, you’ve seen me talk about this topic before. Pit crew guys are becoming more specialized then ever before, with many coming from athletic backgrounds. Pit stop times continue to be cut down, and the margin for error grows smaller every year. And as such, many of the bigger teams are starting to invest in backup crew guys for those dreaded “what if” situations.
With the level of competition in the Cup Series what it is these days, it’s vital to an organization’s success that they are prepared for any situation. A team who is fighting for race wins and a championship can’t afford to lose their main guy after the first pit stop, throw some goober in to fill his spot, and then struggle on pit road for the remainder of the race. They need trained, capable guys waiting in the wings to jump in at a moment’s notice and perform.
It really is no different then other team sports. In baseball and basketball, you’ve got bench players; in football, a lengthy depth chart. These backup pit crews serve the same purpose.
In most cases, these crews train just like the first stringers, getting ample practice and gym time. In order for them to be plugged into an existing crew, there really isn’t any other way. The preparation must be the same.
Besides practice and workouts during the week, often times these backup pit crews have their own gigs during the weekend. Their teams will find them deals with Truck teams, NNS teams, or even other Cup teams to keep their race skills sharp.
One documented example we’ve seen of a backup crew this season, is that of Stewart-Haas Racing. The management at SHR put together a third pit crew and loaned them out to the #71 TRG team. The idea being that the team can stay sharp over the wall, but any member can be recalled at any moment to help one of the SHR teams.
Another example of a backup crew was seen last weekend at California. The rear tire changer for Juan Pablo Montoya’s team wasn’t able to go on Sunday, and since EGR doesn’t have their own backup crew guys, they borrowed one from Team Red Bull’s backup crew. If you watched the race, you may have noticed the change.
These backup guys are just another example of how teams continue to find ways to eliminate as many variables as possible. Like I said above, the margin for error grows ever smaller, and no team can afford to be left in the dust.
Following the 2008 season, Journo and myself wrote a series of posts that covered all the major teams in the Cup Series. We looked at where they had been in 2008 and where they were going in 2009. The posts contained some predictions for the 2009 season, with some being more specific then others. I thought, since 2009 is in the books, that it would be fun to go back over the posts and see how we fared with our predictions. Listed below you will find all the teams we covered, our predictions, and what actually happened. Enjoy!
Hendrick Motorsports Prediction: All four drivers will be contenders for the 2009 title. Actual:We were right, with one notable exception. Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon finished 1-2-3 in the standings for HMS. But, Dale Earnhardt Jr. struggled all season and finished a disappointing 25th.
Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Prediction:Martin Truex Jr. and Juan Pablo Montoya should win a few races each and both could make the Chase. The jury is still out though on Aric Almirola. Actual: He never won a race, but Montoya did make the Chase and was a factor until late; we missed on Truex though. The Bass Pro Shops team only had one top five finish all season and they finished way down in 23rd in the standings. Almirola did struggle, and ended up only running eight races before the sponsorship money dried up.
Team Red Bull Prediction:Expect Scott Speed to struggle in his rookie season, and a top 30 in points would be a victory. Brian Vickers will finish in the top 15 in points, but the Chase will still be out of reach for this team. Actual: Speed did indeed struggle, and did not qualify for three races. He ended up 35th in driver standings and 36th in owner standings. He will be on the outside looking in for 2010. Vickers did a little better then we expected, with one win and a Chase appearance.
Joe Gibbs Racing Prediction:Denny Hamlin will make the Chase, but isn’t good enough to really contend yet. Kyle Busch will continue being a force and will contend for the Cup. In his rookie season Joey Logano will finish top 25 in the points and show flashes of brilliance. Actual: We were right about Hamlin and Logano, but we missed the call on Busch’s season. Hamlin finished fifth in the final standings, but too many DNFs in the Chase killed his chances at the Cup. Logano won at Loudon and finished 20th in the standings. Busch won four races, but struggled for much of the season and missed the Chase.
Richard Childress Racing Prediction: Jeff Burton will win 1-3 races and make the Chase, but will not be a contender. Clint Bowyer will win 3-5 races and challenge for the Cup. Casey Mears will finish top 20 in points at best. Kevin Harvick will win a couple races, make the Chase, and have an outside shot at the Cup. Actual: RCR was probably our biggest missed prediction. Bowyer, Burton, Harvick and Mears finished 15th, 17th, 19th, and 21st respectively. The whole organization struggled all season and didn’t win a single race.
Stewart-Haas Racing Prediction: Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman will finish top 20 in points, we might see a couple wins between the two teams, but a Chase appearance and title contention are a few years away. Actual:SHR was definitely a pleasant surprise this season. Stewart won four races and finished sixth in the standings. He led the points going into the Chase, but lost his momentum and slipped down the stretch. Newman never found victory lane, but did make the Chase on his consistency and finished ninth.
Penske Racing Prediction: The whole organization will struggle with the exception of maybe Kurt Busch. Actual: Kurt Busch won two races and finished fourth in the Chase. Sam Hornish showed a little promise, but could only manage a 28th place points finish. David Stremme continued his history of lackluster performance and finished 32nd in the standings.
Gillett Evernham Motorsports/Richard Petty Motorsports Prediction: The team won’t improve much over 2008, Kahne and Allmendinger are their greatest hopes. Actual:Kahne won two races and did make the Chase, finishing 10th, but that was the bulk of their success. Allmendinger, Reed Sorenson, and Elliott Sadler all failed to finish inside the top 20 in points.
Roush Fenway Racing Prediction: Carl Edwards will be dominant and could be the leading contender for the championship. Matt Kenseth will win 1-2 races and make the Chase. Greg Biffle will also win a race or two and make the Chase, but will not be a serious contender for the title. David Ragan and Jamie McMurray should improve over 2008 but neither will contend or make the Chase. Actual: Edwards was a miss, as he failed to win a race and was never really a factor in the Chase. Kenseth did win two races, but just missed making the Chase. Biffle also went winless, but did make the Chase, finishing seventh. Ragan and McMurray had disappointing seasons, but McMurray did find victory lane at Talladega.
Yates Racing Prediction: Travis Kvapil and Paul Menard will continue to struggle. Bobby Labonte could surprise, but past history doesn’t bode well for him. Actual: Kvapil ended up only running the first five races before his team was shut down due to lack of funding. Menard didn’t earn a top five or top ten all season and finished 31st in the points. Labonte did manage one top five finish, but ended up 30th in the driver standings and was replaced in the #96 late in the season by Erik Darnell.
Michael Waltrip Racing Prediction: David Reutimann should continue to improve, but expect Michael Waltrip to hang up his driving gloves after 2009. Actual: Reutimann did indeed improve in 2009, and collected a win, five top five, and ten top ten finishes. His team nearly made the Chase, but they faded late in the season and finished 16th in the standings. Waltrip’s struggles continued and a 33rd place points finish will see him run only a part time schedule in 2010.
Robby Gordon Motorsports Prediction: Expect more of the same from Robby Gordon, a good finish here and there is the best he’ll do. Actual: Gordon struggled most of the season, and only mustered a 34th place points finish. He did finish third in the rain shortened Coke 600 though.
Filed under: Sprint Cup, Speed TV
Smoke Will Win It All This Season originally appeared on Motorsports FanHouse on Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:38:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.