Sunday’s Cup Series race at Dover was the perfect example of good strategy overcoming speed and handling shortcomings. Matt Kenseth did not have the best race car over the course of the race, but the right call by his crew chief at the right moment put him in position to win. And Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are left wondering “what if.”
When the cars come to pit road following a shorter than normal run, crew guys know that anything is possible. Crew chiefs can call for anything from four tires, to fuel only. And often times you won’t get more than a few seconds warning. The crew chief will start counting the driver into the stall, and then make a last minute audible. For many teams on Sunday, that’s exactly what happened. Guys like Johnson, Edwards, and Clint Bowyer who had been the cars to beat all day, were neutralized by two tire stops.
Besides the winning Kenseth, good pit strategy was the key to good finishes for Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, and Brian Vickers. Martin stayed out, and Ambrose and Vickers both got two tires.
Along with the late race pit strategy, another surprising element of Sunday’s race was the lack of cautions. Dover isn’t referred to as the “Monster Mile” for nothing, but there were shockingly few on track incidents. Compared to both the CWTS and NNS races the previous two days, the Cup race was tame. Especially on a day when track conditions were treacherous (see track rubber issues).
Finally, I was really disappointed to see how sparsely attended the weekend’s races were. I know a constant threat of rain probably turned off some fans, but to see entire sections of grandstands completely devoid of spectators was sad. Dover always puts on great shows, and there are plenty of largely populated areas nearby to draw from. Hopefully TV ratings were up.
Now it’s your turn. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts on the weekend’s action. I heard a late race move by FOX to show commercials in a split screen was quite the hit…
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I didn’t have one idea that I wanted to focus on with my last blog post before the 2011 season gets under way this week, so instead I’ve got a bunch of mini topics to touch on. Feel free to comment on any or all of them.
New Points System I’ve been asked by a few people what my opinion is of the new points system NASCAR has instituted for this season, and I’ve got to say, I don’t really care. It seems on initial inspection that it isn’t a ton different then the old system, and I really don’t believe it will change the way teams race. Teams will still try like hell to win races, and when they can’t, they will do whatever is necessary to get the best possible finish they can. You will also still see teams try and get their race cars back on track after a wreck in order to ride around and get as many points as they can. The mindset won’t change. So I guess if the new system makes things easier for the fans, cool, but other than that, I don’t care.
Final Pit Procedure Thoughts We’ve talked quite a bit around here about the new pit road procedures with the elimination of the catch can position, but I just wanted to offer a few final points. I encourage you to really pay attention to pit stops at Daytona, because you will definitely see some differing techniques among the teams. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it appears as though one or two teams use a system that works better than the others, and for the other teams to follow suit shortly. It will be kind of a “monkey see, monkey do” situation once the teams get a chance to scout each other. These changes will also have a significant impact on pit strategy and what adjustments will get made. It’s a whole new ball game for crew chiefs and engineers now, and I think there is a much larger emphasis now on the decisions they make during the races. You will see a lot more races decided based on pit strategies – at least in the short run.
Important Season For Many Drivers, Teams, and Sponsors There are quite a few drivers and sponsors this season that have contracts that will be expiring after Homestead in November. Lee Spencer from FoxSports.com recently had a bit up about all the Cup drivers who are in the final year of their contracts in 2011 (see it here). This really could be a year that we look back on and say that this was the year that made or broke driver X or team Y. There will be a lot of pressure on those drivers and teams to put in solid performances every week in order to help secure their futures. With the economy continuing to a be a big factor with sponsorships, these teams don’t want to give these companies any reason to either switch to another race team, or pull out completely. It will certainly be an interesting story line to watch.
Nationwide Series Changes I’m really curious to see how the 2011 season unfolds for the Nationwide Series after the championship eligibility changes were made. Will it really help bring the series back to being a developmental series, or will the Cup drivers continue to dominate regardless? We haven’t had a solid Cup rookie class in a couple of years, and the deterioration of the Nationwide Series has certainly played a part in that. In order to keep the talent coffers full of new young drivers, it’s vital that the NNS get back to being a place where these kids can learn how to race.
Championship Predictions We don’t normally do a ton of predictions around here, because they are mostly useless, and it’s pretty much impossible to get them right. But with that said, I’m going to give you my picks on who I think will win each of the top three championships. In the Truck Series, I believe the addition of Jeff Hensley to KHI will pay off big and Ron H0rnaday will return to dominance. Hornaday ran really well last season, but just had a lot of bad luck. Expect that to change for 2011. For the Nationwide Series, I think the pick has to be Elliott Sadler. The Joe Gibbs Toyotas are pretty much unstoppable, but since neither Joey Logano nor Kyle Busch can win the championship, the balance shifts towards KHI. Sadler has the talent and will have the equipment to be a contender every week, and I don’t see any of the younger drivers putting it together for 34 races. And finally, the 2011 Cup Series champion will be Denny Hamlin. The bitter taste of being the runner up to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 will be serious motivation for this team to take the next step, and with Hamlin being 100% healthy this season, he will put it together and unseat the 48 bunch.
The off season has ended, and teams will head to Daytona this week. The next time you hear from me, we’ll have our first race winner (even if it is an exhibition race), and the front row will be set for the Daytona 500. Welcome to 2011!
As pit crew members, we always have to be ready for anything. We’ve got to keep our eyes open for other cars (and our own) on pit road so as to not get hit during a stop. We have to be prepared to fix crash damage at a moment’s notice. We have to make spring rubber, track bar, wedge, and a myriad of other adjustments. And we have to be be ready to change up the play at any time.
On Saturday at Gateway, we saw just one of these instances. Towards the end of the Nationwide Series race, a caution brought most of the teams to pit road. With it being late in the race, teams were going to try different strategies to try and win the race. Justin Allgaier, who’d had a dominate car all day, was one of the cars on pit road.
As the car entered the stall, the crew was prepared to do a two tire pit stop. While the team worked on the right side however, crew chief Chad Walter changed his mind and decided they needed to get four tires. The crew made the adjustment on the fly, and sent Allgaier back onto the track with fresh rubber all the way around.
If you watched the race and this specific pit stop, you may have noticed the stop was a bit slower then usual. This is a symptom of the crew chief’s audible. When you step off the wall prepared to do one job, and end up having to do another, it will take a split second to make the change in your head. In this case though, the crew did the best they could with the situation they were presented with. Their left side tires were close (a sign of a well prepared team) and they completed the stop.
Allgaier went on to finish third in the race, and while it may appear that Walter screwed up, remember that it’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. He made a quick assessment of what the other teams were doing during their pit stops (Allgaier was the #1 pit stall, so Walter had time to see the other strategies) and tried to make the best call to help Allgaier win. He took a shot, and in this case it didn’t work out.
This situation was a perfect example of why crews have to be ready for anything. Sometimes we may not know what work we have to do until the car is a stall or two away. And sometimes changes are made mid-stop. But these are the types of stops that always separate the good from the bad.