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On Thursday, UPS announced what their future NASCAR involvement will entail.  And as expected, their team side sponsorship has been drastically reduced.  For 2012 the shipping giant will scale back to being just an associate sponsor on Carl Edwards #99, and will serve as a primary for just one Cup race.  This move, coupled with a lack of sponsorship at Roush Fenway Racing (the 17 is still not fully backed for 2012) will most likely mean the end of David Ragan’s days as an RFR driver.

We’ve been hearing for a few weeks that the outlook for RFR’s #6 car was grim.  And the later we get in the year without an announcement, the worse the chances are that sponsorship can be obtained to keep the team running.  It’s been clear for some time now that UPS would not be back with Ragan, and there hasn’t been even a peep of a rumor about another possible backer.

For Ragan, this could spell the end of what has been a mediocre run with Roush Fenway.  2008 was by far his best season, with six top five, and 14 top ten finishes.  He just barely missed making the Chase that year, and finished the season 13th in the points.  He has not come anywhere near that level of success since.

If he ends up being released from RFR, Ragan’s options in the Cup Series would be extremely limited.  There was talk a few weeks back that he could be a candidate for a ride with TRG, and if that is even true, it would probably be his only opportunity.  Ragan is without major financial backing, and no big team will put him in a decent ride.  The best he could maybe hope for is a chance at a competitive Nationwide or Truck Series ride.

There is still a little bit of time left, and with it a small chance that something could still be done to save RFR’s 6 car and David Ragan’s seat.  But if Ragan is smart, he’s been working the phones for the last few months trying to track down some backing and/or a new ride.  For a guy as nice as Ragan is, hopefully somebody calls back.

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David Ragan finally notched his first Cup Series win this past weekend at Daytona. It was a long road for the 25-year-old driver after four and half seasons in the sport’s top series.

Ragan’s meteoric rise at Roush Fenway started with the old “Gong Show” (then called Roush Racing: Driver X for Discovery Channel) in 2005, and included in 2006 a 19 race stopover in the Truck Series, and three Nationwide and two Cup starts before being moved to the Mark Martin’s old Cup ride in 2007.

With a lot of pressure behind him to perform in the iconic #6, the then 21-year-old driver notched two top-fives, three top-tens and finished 23rd in the points. The next season he knocked down six top-fives, 14 top-tens and just missed the Chase, finishing 13th in the points.

With all the hope and expectations of the 2008 season, 2009 was nothing short of a disappointment – just two top-tens and a 27th place points finish. Then 2010 saw just three top-tens and a 24th place points finish.

Coming into 2011, Ragan had a relatively new crew chief in Drew Blickensderfer and needed to make something happen.

And so we found ourselves last Sunday. Ragan has been much improved this season (two top-10s, four top-fives before the win) with his highest average finish since 2008. He sits 17th in the points and has a real shot at the Chase with that win.

Everything is looking good, except for the fact that UPS hasn’t re-signed for next season.

“I’m not worried about the program next year. I certainly think about it some. UPS has been a great partner of ours and will continue to be,” Ragan said. “They’ve got some decisions to make in the next couple of months. I think we’re on the right path to bring those guys back; we’re happy we got that win for them – that certainly helped. The Fords are the strongest they have been in a long time. Jack [Roush, owner] and I are on the same page and UPS is happy.“

In a very unusual move for a sponsor, UPS sent a statement out after the race congratulating Ragan on his win and reaffirming their commitment to the driver. Certainly a good signal – I’m still not sure though whether it was simply a congratulatory note or had some other meaning.

Ragan has a couple of years left on his deal with Roush, and though that does mean security, it doesn’t necessarily mean his ride is a guarantee. A lot is going to depend on that all important sponsorship question, and to a larger extent, whether or not that win and the improvement this season is enough to make Jack Roush think Ragan has hit a turning point.

Silly Season continues to intrigue and this is certainly one storyline to follow.

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The recently announced Farmers-to-Hendrick deal for Kasey Kahne has spawned some discussion and speculation about the future of UPS’ NASCAR sponsorship.  Apparently some felt that UPS was a candidate to adorn the hood of Kahne’s future ride at HMS, but the Farmers deal seems to signal that that now won’t happen.  UPS’ current deal with Roush Fenway and David Ragan is up at the end of this season, and you can be sure they will be exploring all options.

The first time – and so far only time – we saw Kahne and UPS mentioned in the same sentence publicly was in a recent post from Scene Daily’s Bob Pockrass.  Pockrass speculated about where UPS could end up, and mentioned Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer as possible candidates if they decide to leave Ragan’s #6 car.  But as we saw back in 2008, drivers of that caliber may be out of reach for UPS.

It is believed that the current UPS deal with RFR pays somewhere around $17-$18 million per season, and the reason the shipper ended up with Ragan back in ’08 was because that wasn’t enough to lock down a big name like Edwards for a full season.  Barring a major shift in strategy and budget from UPS, numbers in that neighborhood don’t appear to be enough this time around either.  Sports Business Journal’s Tripp Mickle says Farmers is paying HMS $17.6 million a season for partial sponsorship of Kahne’s car, and that might be a big sign that UPS could again be priced out of the game for upper tier drivers.

Pockrass does mention that a partial deal with UPS and Edwards might be a way for Roush to keep Big Brown.  For that to happen though, UPS would have to agree to share a driver with another sponsor(s), which is something we haven’t seen them do in the past.  I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but it would certainly be a departure from their past deals.

With Ragan much improved this season, UPS may just end up re-signing.  But there is still so much up in the air for RFR, it may be some time before we know anything definitive.  If 2008 was any indication though, expect UPS to be linked with everyone and their dog for the duration of the summer.

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