I’ve probably written this sentence about a dozen times so far this year, but wow this is shaping up to be a season to remember. After this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen we have 15 different winners and five different first-time winners. Those are extraordinary numbers from a season that still has 14 races left.
Consider last year – there were only 13 different winners by the time we reached Homestead in November.
The numbers are even more impressive when considered against other forms of American motorsports. In the IndyCar Series, in addition to other issues, there have been seven different winners in 13 races. And in a season dominated by the Chip Ganassi Racing team, the Grand-Am Rolex Sports Car Series has just four different winners in 10 races.
With 11 of the top-20 in the Cup Series already winners so far this season, who else is in a position to win and compete for those two wildcard slots in the Chase?
- Clint Bowyer – About the only thing Bowyer hasn’t done this season is win a race. He has three top-fives and eight top-tens and sits just steps from the Chase in 11th. Bowyer has the support and resources to do it – only time will tell though. Points: 11th.
- Greg Biffle falls into the category of drivers with new crew chiefs. Unlike his fellow Roush teammates, he has no wins but sits 13th in the points. With Matt Puccia now at the helm, this team desperately needs a win to make the Chase. Then again, a little hard work and luck might make a win unnecessary. Points: 13th.
- AJ Allmendinger’s teammate Marcos Ambrose proved last weekend the Richard Petty Motorsports teams have what it takes. Allmendinger has struggled so far this season, but with new crew chief Greg Erwin, this is a team to watch. Points: 16th
- Joey Logano has struggled a bit this season after what some thought would be a breakthrough year in 2010. It looked like Joey may have a shot at Pocono before the skies cleared and the track dried. He finished 26th. Logano has ground to make up, but anything is possible. Points: 17th.
- Mark Martin is in his first year with a new crew chief, his last year with Hendrick Motorsports and holds the distinction of being the only team driver not in the Chase. With the success of 2009 long behind us and Martin still figuring out what he wants to do in 2012, can he break through? I wouldn’t count him out. Points: 18th.
- Kasey Kahne joined Red Bull Racing on a temporary VISA from Hendrick Motorsports this season. His gap year before starting at Hendrick is turning out to be OK, including one pole. Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis are fighting an uphill battle, but if one of the Red Bull cars is going to win, I’d put my money on this one. Points: 19th.
- Juan Pablo Montoya scored his second win last season, but like the other Earnhardt Ganassi car has struggled to find the magic this season. Brian Pattie got booted from the team after a rough start and while new crew chief Jim Pohlman has brought fresh blood, this move may not improve anything. JPM has talent, but lacks patience. We’ll see how that plays out for the remainder of 2011. Points: 20th.
- Martin Truex Jr. has a new crew chief after the team jettisoned Pat Tryson several weeks ago. It hasn’t helped yet. With one top-ten, and a team still struggling, Truex doesn’t make the top of my favorites list, but like with Reutimann, anything is possible. Points: 21st.
- Jeff Burton has had nothing short of a bad season. Todd Berrier lost his job and the team has just one top-ten to speak of. If they hope to salvage what’s left of the season they’re going to have to start making moves and fast. Points: 24th.
- David Reutimann – Just when you think Reutimann is about to shine… After going 1, 6 and 9 last year and 1, 5 and 10 the year before, it looked early on like this might be Reutimann’s season to shine. 22 races in and there is just one top-five and two top-10s to speak of. It’s been a rough year for the MWR cars, but with the way this season has gone, anything is possible. Points: 26th.
- Jamie McMurray had a stand out season in 2010, but has failed to recapture the magic in 2011. Still, he’s got one top-5, and three top-10s. Points: 27th.
- Brian Vickers’ needs a good season, perhaps more than anyone else. With the exit of Red Bull from NASCAR, he’ll be the odd man out at the team should GM Jay Frye not put together a deal to save it. Vickers has just one top-five and five top-10s. With a little luck I think they can put something together, but he’s not my favorite to join the list of winners. Points: 28th
The group above accounts for the most likely future winners this season. Still, we make another stop at Talladega and with the out of nowhere wins from a couple this season, the next Cup Series winner may be completely off the radar. Stay tuned because this is just getting interesting.
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