It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final races of the season. In just more than two months we’ll be in Homestead to crown a champion for 2010. In the meantime we’ve got our Chase field set and 10 races to sort out the good from the great.
So far this season we’ve seen just how important consistency is in this points system (Kevin Harvick) and how bad luck can damage even the best teams (Jimmie Johnson). While we’ve had some convincing wins and some great performances, who exactly the strongest team is, is hard to say. The race for the championship is wide open for the first time in years, and there are 12 drivers now in a dogfight to become the next Sprint Cup Champion.
Denny Hamlin: Has all the makings of a champion. He’s the winningest driver so far this season, and when the #11 team is on, they’re on. The trouble they, and frankly all the Gibbs teams have had is consistency. Hamlin has two DNFs and five finishes of 30th or worse. His championship hopes are on his team at this point. The driver has proven he’s capable. The rest of the team now needs to figure out if they are.
Jimmie Johnson: The #48 team has been good this season – there’s no doubt about that. But they’ve struggled since the implementation of the spolier. Chad Knaus has been unable to keep up with track conditions some weekends, and other weekends, when they look like they’re on, they get hit by bad luck. Consistency was the thing that made this team so strong for so long and it just hasn’t been there. Johnson has four DNFs so far this season and nine races with finishes of 20th or worse. Just like Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson’s championship hopes rest heavily on his team – perhaps more importantly though are the things he cant control, like luck.
Kevin Harvick: Consistent is the one word to describe this team. In 26 races this season Harvick has won just three times, but built a commanding lead in the points. His average finish of 9.8 is the best of his career, and if the team can maintain it, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Though the team has been good just about every weekend, they’re not always in a position to win. Because of this, Harvick’s championship hopes hinge on the consistency of his competitors over the next 10 races. If everyone runs like they have all season, Harvick could very well give Richard Childress his first Cup championship since 1994.
Kyle Busch: Though he hasn’t had as many wins, Busch has been more consistent than his teammate Denny Hamlin. For that reason he might just be in a better position to win the championship. As I’ve said here before, whether you like him or not, it’s hard not to admit Kyle’s talents as a driver. That said he’s been plagued through his short career by a lack of maturity and focus. He’s definitely calmed down a lot this season, but with a truck team and his Nationwide efforts also on his mind does he consistently have what it takes to win on Sunday? Kyle Busch will be likely be a Cup Champion in the not too distant future, whether that could be this season remains to be seen.
The Roush Cars: Forgive me for grouping these guys together, but they all have the same problem – an inability to overcome the performance hump. Ford has struggled all year with the switchover to the FR9 and the Roush drivers just haven’t been as competitive as they should be. Greg Biffle is the last Ford driver to win a race back in Pocono. Before that it was Matt Kenseth last February at California. And Carl Edwards hasn’t seen victory lane since Homestead 2008. All of these guys are good enough to win championships – I’m just not sure the teams are there performance wise.
Kurt Busch: Just like many of his fellow Chasers, consistency, or lack thereof, has plagued Kurt Busch. It’s hard to believe Roger Penske doesn’t have a Cup championship. He’s certainly had drivers with the talent to do it, and teams formidable enough to compete, but it just hasn’t happened. Since becoming the lone Dodge team Penske, the organization, looks good. Kurt Busch could deliver “The Captain” his first Cup Series championship, I just don’t know if this will be the year.
Tony Stewart: This isn’t 2009 – and Tony Stewart knows it. He has hustled for every good finish he’s had this season. Though they struggled after the implementation of the spoiler, Stewart’s team looks to be back on track as of late. Since Dover he’s had 11 top-ten finishes, five top-five finishes, two second place finishes and one win. While he’s going to need to run a little bit better – as in more wins – Tony Stewart may be hitting his stride at the right time.
Jeff Gordon: Speaking of overcoming the hump. I feel bad for this team. They’re good year in and year out, but Jeff Gordon hasn’t won a race since April of 2009. Before that it was October of 2007. This season Gordon has 10 top-five finishes but no wins to speak of. He’s certainly got what it takes, but this team needs to find that little bit extra to make them a serious contender. Jeff Gordon can be a five time champion, but some things are going to have to improve.
The other two Childress Cars: Consistent but not Championship great – at least so far this season. Both Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer are consistent performers for RCR, but they, like Gordon, just haven’t been able to close the deal. Burton has been in position a couple of times this season only to lose it because of mistakes. Bowyer, like Burton, hasn’t had a win since 2008 and is probably going to need to be a little stronger to truly compete. If these two are going to go head-to-head with Kevin Harvick they’re going to need to find some speed, and fast. They’re capable, but I have my doubts.
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Is the Chase not good enough for the Nationwide and Truck Series, or are the Nationwide and Truck Series not good enough for the Chase?
As NASCAR tries to fix what probably doesn’t need to be fixed, I’ve got wonder how long it’s going to take them to start applying the points changes (that is the six year old changes) to their two other series.
I know, for many of you, the Chase is a sore subject – and you would just as soon see them get rid of it than see it expanded. No matter your feelings though, doesn’t having two different systems to determine champions throughout the sport undermine the legitimacy of the most contested points system?
I won’t get into NASCAR making changes to the Chase (for the record I think it’s a bad idea – and feel free to discuss it), but I do believe there needs to be uniformity across the series in how a champion is crowned.
In one breath NASCAR is saying the Chase is a great way to determine a champion (though apparently not great enough), and then in the other (though not directly) acknowledging the strength of the old system by allowing it to continue in two of its three national series. Hence the undermining.
I get we’re supposed to have three distinct and unique series. Despite those differences though, and the individual strengths of each of the series, I firmly believe NASCAR needs to administer all three as similarly as possible. If one has a Chase, they should all have a Chase.
On top of that, I think it serves its purpose well enough. We get better fights at the end of the season – and more often than not the best driver does win. So why can’t this work in the Truck and Nationwide Series?
I know it’s not a big thing, but I want a sport that functions like a cohesive unit – not like three stand alone bodies. It may, or may not bother you that NASCAR doesn’t use a uniform system across all three of its series, but it kind of bothers me.
What do you think? Is uniformity in the points necessary across all three series? Would you like to see the Chase be the points system across the sport?
Since its inception in 2004 the Chase has been one of the more contentious issues among fans. I know many of you don’t like it. So I think it’s interesting every year to look at the standings as if we were still under the old points system.
This is something I did last year (here and here) and honestly we weren’t too surprised by the results. Jimmie ended the season just behind Carl Edwards (16 points behind). I know what you’re saying, Jimmie’s a false champion, but remember the #48 team sandbagged at Homestead (I would have stayed out of the fight too). Anyway, thankfully this season I don’t have to figure out the points (I know I’m lazy), because NASCAR has already done it for me. Here they are…
1. #48 Jimmie Johnson, 4996 2. #14 Tony Stewart, 4983, -13 3. #24 Jeff Gordon, 4940, -56 4. #5 Mark Martin, 4635, -361 5. #11 Denny Hamlin, 4611, -385 6. #2 Kurt Busch, 4593, -403 7. #42 Juan Pablo Montoya, 4454, -542 8. #16 Greg Biffle, 4420, -576 9. #39 Ryan Newman, 4353, -643 10. #18 Kyle Busch, 4310, -686 11. #9 Kasey Kahne, 4276, -720 12. #17 Matt Kenseth, 4265, -731 13. #99 Carl Edwards, 4252, -744 14. #33 Clint Bowyer, 4224, -772 15. #00 David Reutimann, 4103, -893 16. #83 Brian Vickers, 4024, -972
I can’t personally say I’m surprised Jimmie is leading, however small that lead is. I suppose what surprises me the most is how close the champion race would have been between Johnson, Stewart and Gordon. This would have made for quite a showdown at Homestead. And so much for Mark Martin, he’s not even a factor without the Chase.
Obviously Stewart (currently 5th) and Gordon (currently 3rd) are hurt by the Chase. Interestingly though, so is Denny Hamlin (he’s currently 8th) and Kyle Busch, who missed the cut-off for the Chase and is sitting in 13th.
Being helped most by the Chase are Brian Vickers (currently 12th), Kurt Busch (currently in 4th) and Mark Martin (currently 2nd).
Outside of those guys just about everyone else is within a position or two of where they stand with the Chase. After looking at the points over the last several years, that really isn’t too surprising.
Going into Homestead, Jimmie Johnson is looking like a pretty good bet. It’s possible if they have another Texas-sized problem he could lose the Championship (that’s assuming Mark can put together a solid finish), but let’s face it the #48 is consistently consistent (and good).
My point with this, as it was last year, is to show that even though the Chase has changed the system, the end result really isn’t that much different. The Chase has brought some interest and intrigue to the late season, but at the end of the day the cream will rise to the top. Call Jimmie Johnson a false champion if you like, but you and I both know that’s not true.
Oh and I’ll update you on the final results for Monday’s post.